January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Matthew70]

43 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

This is not a bad look for a 30 day mean.  The NAO is over the Davis Straits.  There is an EPO ridge.  BN temps over the northern half of the East with cold centered just a bit to our NE. 
 

The Weeklies have been shaky lately so I hesitate to share, but hey…

 

Bipolar weeklies at that. 

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

I took my shit down this morning while it was warm..lol

 

SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

After an intensely foggy morning, it`s cloudy and very muggy out
there. Temperatures have warmed into the low 60s so far and will
make at run at 70 by this afternoon. The remainder of today will be
cloudy and dry as the ridge responsible for our spell of above-
normal warmth finally shifts to our east. Behind the exiting
ridge will come a fairly strong upper low that will push a strong
cold front through Middle TN Sunday night. Ahead of the frontal
passage, flow aloft will transition out of the southwest, drawing
anomalously high moisture into the area. Looking at soundings,
instability overall is very limited with less than 100 J/kg and
profiles are totally saturated. With that being said, a 60 kt low-
level jet will be in place as this line moves through, and if any
of that wind can mix down, there will be a chance for a gusts up
to 40-50 mph with the line. With regards to any tornado
potential, the threat is very, very low. Low-level helicities and
shear are more than sufficient, but limited instability and weak
lapse rates will make tor development very difficult. The most
likely scenario is that a narrow band of heavy rain and gusty
winds will move through tomorrow night between 7pm-1am.

Non-thunderstorm gradient winds will be gusty tomorrow as the
surface low moves across our north. There will be a steady breeze
with gusts up to 35 mph at times. Here`s your notice now to get
those outdoor Christmas decorations down!

To me it has been a windy 2025.  Glad I don’t wear a toupee. Lol

[Matthew70]

10 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Positives. The AH dies. There's a bit of a -NAO. There's no SE ridge. The STJ is waking up a bit, maybe. The cold isn't so suppressive that we are seeing Florida beaches getting buried. The polar vortex may get stretched again in January. 

For the next two weeks we will have a pattern more conducive for snow than our current pattern of sunbathing weather. 

The two weeks after that, may, (stress may as always here) be even more conducive. Especially if we get the +PNA to show up, timed with a wave.  @GaWx noted that even for areas East of the Apps, the +PNA was the most frequent teleconnection for decent snow events. 

I'm hoping we also continue the trend he noted of +PNA January conditions that follow -PNA Decembers. 

Sunbathing wx.  Lol! John always brings the positive lols. 

[John1122]

18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I don’t post a lot of tweets, but this saves me from having to cut/paste the analogs and allows me to source the information all in the same post…this is from MA thread.

 

Keeping in mind that it just snowed constantly in the 1960s, December 23-24th 1966 saw a widespread 4-8 inch snow event from Nashville to Tri-Cities and points N in Sw Va and SE Kentucky, 2-4 inches along 40, 1-3 inches around Memphis, and unfortunately for Chattanooga, more rain with a back end dusting. Temps around zero for lows on Christmas morning imby. 

January of 56, by a day preceeded a 4-6+ inch event that went from Memphis to just north of Chattanooga and points north. 

Jan of '58 was a brief cold shot around the 15th-19th with around 1 inch of snow. 

The 1995 analog, it got coldish, 30s and 20s for highs and lows with a 1 inch snow here. 

[Carvers Gap]

From the MA forum pattern thread...Interesting about the +NAO bias.  I am pretty sure that Jon Wall was/is a longtime poster on the SE forum.

[Golf757075]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

From the MA forum pattern thread...Interesting about the +NAO bias.  I am pretty sure that Jon Wall was/is a longtime poster on the SE forum.

Carver, typically I get excited when John homenuk posts because he knows his stuff and i haven't seen him post in a while. His screen name was earthlight back at eastern weather forum and americanwx. Im just ready for some action lol. 

[Carvers Gap]

I have always understood that after d10, modeling can be woefully incorrect.  However, modeling would still produce a lot of plausible solutions.  I just can't escape the idea that something seems really off about wx modeling since late November.  I don't know if they are struggling w/ the MJO which is kind of indiscernible at times, or if the cold air is a problem.  But we have seen feedback (sometimes really bad at times) and patterns after d10 which make zero sense at all.  It literally looks like Jackson Pollack has taken the wheel.  

I do think the threat of Canada being scoured of cold is growing with each run...right as our pattern gets right.  Such is life, and not uncommon during recent winters.  But let's remain patient.  When modeling is spitting out stuff like this....do we really trust their ouput?  Yes, I know it's way out there, but again....even prior to November modeling was at least creating solutions which made since.  

With the images below, none of that teleconnects.  Even spookier, the Euro kind of produced something similar at 12z.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

18z (EURO AIFS, GFS, and AIGFS)...yuck.  Ensembles appear steady, but that is a big time warming trend across deterministic modeling at 240.  I wouldn't call if a flip, but welcome to wx model watching this winter.  Yet again, we are likely dealing with feedback...this time w/ an Alaskan vortex which cuts off our cold air supply.  That kind of makes sense, but the downstream effects are just model chaos.  Do I think it spins up that strong?  Nope.  It probably is a legit player, but like so, so many other features this winter past d8...it is likely over amped to a point it just ruins the run from a rigor standpoint.

Also, we are seeing a trend for the NAO to simply evaporate.  That could happen.  It is very difficult to model.  The good trend is that there is a trend for a western ridge by Jan10.  A reasonable model bias(and not feedback) is to break down the NAO too quickly.  I am guessing that is in play.

But the 18z deterministic suite is about as ugly as it gets, and a complete flip from 0z and 6z.  Thankfully, most of that is in fantasy land.

[Carvers Gap]

Don't know if I trust ensembles or not...but the Euro AIFS ensemble and GEFS at 18z make a lot of sense, though different on several levels.  

The 18z Euro deterministic AIFS actually ends up w/ a strong EPO/PNA ridge with split flow.  Maybe that is where this is headed.  If so, Canada would restock w/ very cold air in days, and set the stage for Cosgrove's last third of January to be frigid.  Those seeds seem to be in place in LR modeling.  I think we have chances prior to that, but just commenting for Jan 15-31st.

Either way, it looks some HUGE back and forth cold/warm swings could be in play....I still kind of think Jan 2 is being under modeled in regards to cold. I will try to update one more time as ensembles finish running....with individual members in an effort to sift through this.

[Golf757075]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Don't know if I trust ensembles or not...but the Euro AIFS ensemble and GEFS at 18z make a lot of sense, though different on several levels.  

The 18z Euro deterministic AIFS actually ends up w/ a strong EPO/PNA ridge with split flow.  Maybe that is where this is headed.  If so, Canada would restock w/ very cold air in days, and set the stage for Cosgrove's last third of January to be frigid.  Those seeds seem to be in place in LR modeling.  I think we have chances prior to that, but just commenting for Jan 15-31st.

Either way, it looks some HUGE back and forth cold/warm swings could be in play....I still kind of think Jan 2 is being under modeled in regards to cold. I will try to update one more time as ensembles finish running....with individual members in an effort to sift through this.

It will always be tough. That is why, at least my area only sees 3-4 4-5 inches a winter, which is very fortunate to get these days if we see that

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I have always understood that after d10, modeling can be woefully incorrect.  However, modeling would still produce a lot of plausible solutions.  I just can't escape the idea that something seems really off about wx modeling since late November.  I don't know if they are struggling w/ the MJO which is kind of indiscernible at times, or if the cold air is a problem.  But we have seen feedback (sometimes really bad at times) and patterns after d10 which make zero sense at all.  It literally looks like Jackson Pollack has taken the wheel.  

I do think the threat of Canada being scoured of cold is growing with each run...right as our pattern gets right.  Such is life, and not uncommon during recent winters.  But let's remain patient.  When modeling is spitting out stuff like this....do we really trust their ouput?  Yes, I know it's way out there, but again....even prior to November modeling was at least creating solutions which made since.  

With the images below, none of that teleconnects.  Even spookier, the Euro kind of produced something similar at 12z.  

 

I've never in all my 40 + Years in meteorology seen anything more rediculous looking than those two Depictions. Something is amiss.

As far as sensible reasoning irt any Models having trouble would be the possible GOA LP or Alaskan Vortex in conjunction with Greenland Blocking. Any Alaskan Vortex with HP east of there will block CPF and even can pull Cold across to the Asian side but, troughing should still result in the lower 48.

    However, either of those Depictions are as Carvers alluded to; don't make sense. The GFS looks like it just went complete strong positive AO and NAO big-time. They're both really a jumbled mess.