January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Matthew70]

43 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

This is not a bad look for a 30 day mean.  The NAO is over the Davis Straits.  There is an EPO ridge.  BN temps over the northern half of the East with cold centered just a bit to our NE. 
 

The Weeklies have been shaky lately so I hesitate to share, but hey…

 

Bipolar weeklies at that. 

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

I took my shit down this morning while it was warm..lol

 

SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

After an intensely foggy morning, it`s cloudy and very muggy out
there. Temperatures have warmed into the low 60s so far and will
make at run at 70 by this afternoon. The remainder of today will be
cloudy and dry as the ridge responsible for our spell of above-
normal warmth finally shifts to our east. Behind the exiting
ridge will come a fairly strong upper low that will push a strong
cold front through Middle TN Sunday night. Ahead of the frontal
passage, flow aloft will transition out of the southwest, drawing
anomalously high moisture into the area. Looking at soundings,
instability overall is very limited with less than 100 J/kg and
profiles are totally saturated. With that being said, a 60 kt low-
level jet will be in place as this line moves through, and if any
of that wind can mix down, there will be a chance for a gusts up
to 40-50 mph with the line. With regards to any tornado
potential, the threat is very, very low. Low-level helicities and
shear are more than sufficient, but limited instability and weak
lapse rates will make tor development very difficult. The most
likely scenario is that a narrow band of heavy rain and gusty
winds will move through tomorrow night between 7pm-1am.

Non-thunderstorm gradient winds will be gusty tomorrow as the
surface low moves across our north. There will be a steady breeze
with gusts up to 35 mph at times. Here`s your notice now to get
those outdoor Christmas decorations down!

To me it has been a windy 2025.  Glad I don’t wear a toupee. Lol

[Matthew70]

10 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Positives. The AH dies. There's a bit of a -NAO. There's no SE ridge. The STJ is waking up a bit, maybe. The cold isn't so suppressive that we are seeing Florida beaches getting buried. The polar vortex may get stretched again in January. 

For the next two weeks we will have a pattern more conducive for snow than our current pattern of sunbathing weather. 

The two weeks after that, may, (stress may as always here) be even more conducive. Especially if we get the +PNA to show up, timed with a wave.  @GaWx noted that even for areas East of the Apps, the +PNA was the most frequent teleconnection for decent snow events. 

I'm hoping we also continue the trend he noted of +PNA January conditions that follow -PNA Decembers. 

Sunbathing wx.  Lol! John always brings the positive lols. 

[John1122]

18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I don’t post a lot of tweets, but this saves me from having to cut/paste the analogs and allows me to source the information all in the same post…this is from MA thread.

 

Keeping in mind that it just snowed constantly in the 1960s, December 23-24th 1966 saw a widespread 4-8 inch snow event from Nashville to Tri-Cities and points N in Sw Va and SE Kentucky, 2-4 inches along 40, 1-3 inches around Memphis, and unfortunately for Chattanooga, more rain with a back end dusting. Temps around zero for lows on Christmas morning imby. 

January of 56, by a day preceeded a 4-6+ inch event that went from Memphis to just north of Chattanooga and points north. 

Jan of '58 was a brief cold shot around the 15th-19th with around 1 inch of snow. 

The 1995 analog, it got coldish, 30s and 20s for highs and lows with a 1 inch snow here. 

[Carvers Gap]

From the MA forum pattern thread...Interesting about the +NAO bias.  I am pretty sure that Jon Wall was/is a longtime poster on the SE forum.

[Golf757075]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

From the MA forum pattern thread...Interesting about the +NAO bias.  I am pretty sure that Jon Wall was/is a longtime poster on the SE forum.

Carver, typically I get excited when John homenuk posts because he knows his stuff and i haven't seen him post in a while. His screen name was earthlight back at eastern weather forum and americanwx. Im just ready for some action lol.