January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Matthew70]

49 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

I think we actually get more icestorms from niñas because we get a -epo and the se ridge comes into play, stalling the fronts. I would take an icestorm over nothing lol

Whatcha talking about!?  Was that the phrase Different Strokes would say? 

As far as ice storm.  Heckkkkk no!!!!

I don’t won’t to see the damage it does to all the trees.  It’s like a tornado, it destroys trees & scars the landscape.  

[Matthew70]

1 minute ago, Golf757075 said:

I agree. I wished they ran only twice a week liked they used to lol. 

THIS!  I agree totally! 

[Carvers Gap]

I don't trust a model past 120 hours right now though I talk plenty about them - that is the fun of tracking, right?  

As for snow climatology, I am actually AN.  Many of you are exactly at normal as climatology hasn't supported snow yet.  I know it easy to see places like Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio get snow.  That would be like Atlanta comparing their snow climatology to here.   Mid-West climatologyis definitely NOT our climatology or standard here at any time of the year - not even close.

Until models get the NAO/AO/EPO/PNA situation worked out....gonna be a slog in regards to figuring things out.  My rule of thumb right now is that if any model sees a cold front...it likely verifies.  Again, go to ensembles members and count them.  Try to find the median for a run (not the mean which could be skewed) and look to see if that number increases as time gets closer.  Right now, the GEM and counting ensemble members is about the only way to go.  

As for Nina...again, middle and west Tenn have taken E TN to school during the past several Nina winters.  Nina winters have tempered the snow drought in those areas which had been huge.  NE TN is in a significant snow drought as are portions of SW VA.  Members this way just don't say much about it.  Weak Nino and Nina winters(this is one!) are when NE TN peeps score....so I think this winter might end up differently due to the QBO.  

Remember, the end of January and February is a month when wavelengths shorten.  That adds more opportunities than the dead of winter.

I think the biggest obstacle going forward is below normal precip and not temps.  So, if you need something to worry about...that is the fly in the ointment and has been for several days on modeling.  @Holston_River_Ramblermentioning the STJ as key is an underrated post.  

I think we have a warm-up sometime after the 6th, but I can't really perceive when as that window is probably a good snow window as well.  For now, it looks like several cold fronts dropping down.  Most of these fronts have been correcting southward and stronger as the day nears - let's see if that trend continues.

But again, until we know the duration and intensity of the NAO and any subsequent ridge out West...very tough call but I lean seasonal right now w/ a mix of warm and cold days. In about two weeks, seasonal will get the job done.  The "now you see it and now you don't" Aleutian ridge runs are not helping models after day 8!

[Golf757075]

26 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Whatcha talking about!?  Was that the phrase Different Strokes would say? 

As far as ice storm.  Heckkkkk no!!!!

I don’t won’t to see the damage it does to all the trees.  It’s like a tornado, it destroys trees & scars the landscape.  

I don't want a major ice storm either. We typically get the waa and that leads to sleet or fzr

[Carvers Gap]

56 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

THIS!  I agree totally! 

Interestingly, one of the most useful models I can find right now is the Euro Weeklies control.  It is basically a 4 week extension of the 0z Euro deterministic run after day 15.  It has been doing really well if one accounts for its biases - the ensemble weeklies not so much.   I haven't been discussing the weeklies as much lately due to their errors and inconsistencies.  But again most models past 120 hours are struggling mightily.  They are all over the map.  

One thing the weeklies are signaling is that we are possibly about to enter a very dry time frame.  Now, that might sound bad and it could be.  However, many of the areas which get snow...that signal will show up as dry.

I noticed the CPC analogs are almost all from the 2020s.  That probably isn't unwise on their part, but it probably means they are going to be wrong.  This winter doesn't remind me of 2020s winters at all.  This one has a bit of old school in her bones.

And no, I don't want an ice storm either.  I don't mind a mixed bag, but I like my lights on.  After Helene knocked us out for several days...I am not a fan of running a generator 24/7.  During the winter, "no power" is about ten times worse.  Pipes freeze.  There is no heat.  There is no travel.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

I may post slightly less over the weekend(Saturday and Sunday).  I am gonna sit back and enjoy watching model run chaos.  So, if you see fewer posts...don't assume the modeling has been poor.  But I will leave you with this.  Some things I see and then I don't post about(hard to believe, right?!).  I think at some point, there is a good chance that we see this.  LC has been banging the drum for late January into early February.  Low and behold, the control shows this today.  Have a great weekend, everyone!  

[Jed33]

That’s a really nice look!

[Knoxtron]

FWIW Let me know if this is to much of an image dump!

 

As others have mentioned, maybe some snow signals around the 3rd and 7thish?

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Check out this front as it comes through Sunday night...Some places could well have single digit wind chills by Tuesday morning.

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z AIGFS has these maps.  Sorry, it doesn't have clown maps or precip types.  Use your imagination.  Looks like it has a clipper and a WAA event.

 

 

[Jed33]

43 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

I don't want a major ice storm either. We typically get the waa and that leads to sleet or fzr

This is very true for West TN especially the further south and west you go. Memphis is notorious for it. I lived in that area and in N MS for 30yrs with the exception of 5yrs spent in Jackson, MS. I’ve seen so many ice storms. I really hope I never see another one. I’ve seen some of the worst ones and the damage done from them. My grandfather and the older generation used to call the bad ones “Ice-breakdowns”. The name says it all. The February 1994 ice storm is in a league of its own and I hope it’s never repeated again. Some places around N MS had 6-8 in of pure freezing rain. An ungodly amount of ice buildup. Memphis had 2-3in itself. That much ice is hard to describe it’s just devastating! Sleet by itself is also hard to come by, but Memphis also manages to do that better than any place I’ve ever lived as well. I’ve seen 4in of pure sleet and many “concrete mixes” as it’s sometimes called with 2-4in amounts of freezing rain, sleet, and snow mixed. That is unbelievably hard to get around in. You better hope you get an inch or two of snow on top to help with traction for the first day, but when that melts a little from the sun and refreezes into a block of ice, it’s bad, really bad! Hopefully we all get 100% snow this year, and don’t have to see an ice storm. I love snow, but I would like to pass on the ice storms please.