Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,577
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    masonj4
    Newest Member
    masonj4
    Joined

Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs


MAG5035
 Share

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

0z GFS kuchera is beautiful. Much more in line with the other models4cb07fca37c201a98af68dc3f7aed5f6.jpg


.

at the minimum, this one gives us southers a little breathing room, cause we were feeling the heat earlier today.  

if this is a byproduct of the new data being ingested, keep eatin what your eatin GFS

  • Like 2
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, canderson said:

0z GFS is running and contains new data from the hurricane hunters. 

They can keep that data coming haha. It doesn’t get much better than that for a well timed and positioned handoff to the coastal low to put PA in the best snows. 

  • Like 3
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

cmc at 96 pops secondary 75 miles off s jerzy coast

I'm right on the taint line, but I'd likely be pingin.

wraps up at 102 is 

not bad either, but not GFS....my new love (well for the next 6 hrs anyway)

to whomever is on the night shift....keep ahold of the wheel.  gnight all

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

cmc at 96 pops secondary 75 miles off s jerzy coast

I'm right on the taint line, but I'd likely be pingin.

wraps up at 102 is 

not bad either, but not GFS....my new love (well for the next 6 hrs anyway)

to whomever is on the night shift....keep ahold of the wheel.  gnight all

 

It has Massachusetts sleeting. Overamped much? 

  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

flash backs to that candy disco map of many years ago said to be a mother of all storms tripe phaser and ended up not happening and it was sunny and in the 40s lol
 
The triple phaser might as be weinies version of the ring with how much it's siren song always leads us to think with the wrong body part.

I got
the knickerbocker in late January 1922 968mb
The Great Appalachian storm late November 1950 970mb
Great Midwestern blizzard of January 1978 955mb
Superstorm March 1993 960mb
Halloween Noreaster 2011 971mb

That's all I can think of that was legit triple phasers. Logically we really should banish that word until 2030 if not 2035.

Alot of people forget about the Halloween one thinking we are so do

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They can keep that data coming haha. It doesn’t get much better than that for a well timed and positioned handoff to the coastal low to put PA in the best snows. 
What's the timing with the Baja energy and north vort that is required for a transfer like the GFS

Look at the 500mb rh% between GFS and euro at 12z
For 00z, 06z Monday
Time ordered, GFS firstScreenshot_2026-01-22_010550.jpgScreenshot_2026-01-22_010734.jpgScreenshot_2026-01-22_010605.jpgScreenshot_2026-01-22_010740.jpg

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking over the 0z ensembles, they continue to be more supportive of an all snow outcome in all of C-PA despite the Euro and especially Canadian op creeping that mix line into southern PA. 

Here’s the Canadian ensemble members and p-type. Note that none of the members really intrude into PA with the mix line. A couple get close, but snow is predominant regardless. That factors pretty heavily into what your seeing on the NBM maps, as it blends all these ensembles. 

image.thumb.png.6b7e9d104a2a7bc904dfa493d923f3ba.png

 

0z Euro ensemble is fantastic

image.thumb.png.763525dd08faf158c18bb77ee362f5d7.png

Here’s the multi-run trend for MDT (Euro ensemble), you can see how this has really escalated the last couple days. 

image.thumb.png.48b508ecd72be94d55dd49cfcfc073c0.png

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Weather ServiceUnited States Department of Commerce

Toggle navigation

Watches, Warnings & Advisories



2 products issued by NWS for: Goldsboro PA
 

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
206 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

PAZ026>028-034>037-041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-222145-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0002.260125T0300Z-260126T1800Z/
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern
Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Laporte, Mifflintown, Berwick,
McConnellsburg, Lewistown, Mansfield, Mount Union, Huntingdon,
Lebanon, Shamokin, Chambersburg, Pottsville, Hershey, Trout Run,
York, Lewisburg, Lancaster, Harrisburg, Selinsgrove, Wellsboro,
Carlisle, Bedford, Williamsport, Danville, Gettysburg, Newport,
Bloomsburg, and Sunbury
206 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with significant accumulations possible. Snow
  may mix with or transition to sleet in southern PA on Sunday and
  Sunday night.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be difficult late
  Saturday night through Monday morning.+

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1 or visiting 511PA.com.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
weather.gov/StateCollege

Banghoff/Bauco



 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
211 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

PAZ026>028-034>037-041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-230715-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
211 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Brief rain or snow showers are possible overnight and could lead to
reduced visibility.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

An extended period of frigid weather is expected Friday into next
week with sub-zero to potentially dangerous wind chills. Saturday
morning and Tuesday morning will be the coldest.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

$$


View in Desktop Mode
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...