pasnownut Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 1994 there were ruts in the streets for what seemed like a couple of weeks. There was an obscene amount of ice that winter. one of the few times I was ok w/ the warmup, as the ice/pot holes were just a wreckin ball to car suspension....and my fillings in my teeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: one of the few times I was ok w/ the warmup, as the ice/pot holes were just a wreckin ball to car suspension....and my fillings in my teeth. Yes! That was exactly how I felt as well, and I'm never ready for a warm up. But after days and days of driving on ice holes (gotta be careful that didn't autocorrect) I was ready for a reset and dry roads again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago This little storm Friday could be our own little Christmas miracle. Not many times forcast goes from a wee bit balmy 59 to 29 in a matter of days. Hopefully the rug isn't pulled from us. It's been a rough few winters around here. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Yes! That was exactly how I felt as well, and I'm never ready for a warm up. But after days and days of driving on ice holes (gotta be careful that didn't autocorrect) I was ready for a reset and dry roads again. People would pay good money to drive on the other holesSent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago During his time on-air in the Altoona market, I do not remember Joe being the type to over hype events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Supposed to get a new TV delivered Friday - boo. My LG OLED died Sunday - panel dead. It’s 41 days outside warranty. I’m so mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Supposed to get a new TV delivered Friday - boo. My LG OLED died Sunday - panel dead. It’s 41 days outside warranty. I’m so mad. Not going to Seoul to pick it up yourself? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 hours ago, Jns2183 said: I've never seen meteorologists so angry over models, as they currently are over Friday. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk More often than not models don’t do well handling features with NAO blocking in the medium range, which isn’t necessarily anything new. So they’re now responding to what is looking to be a bit stronger of a -NAO block. Its high stakes with the changeability because our area is on the fringe between a surge of record warmth in the central US and still a decent source of cold air in Canada, which the -WPO (Bering Strait ridge) is providing despite the variable EPO and negative PNA. The northeastern US was never supposed to really warm up, at least for very long because of the -NAO holding off/muting the torch pressing from the central US, something I touched upon in a post a couple days ago. Now that we have a feature and high pressure suddenly lined up with plenty of cold available to bleed down, we have our setup for a mess instead of a day that looked like was heading for 55-60 a couple days ago. I know I did a double take yesterday when I saw that guidance went over to this. Funny thing is, this system has shown up in some fashion off and on in that 12/26-28 timeframe on deterministic guidance basically since it’s gotten within the range of it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 13 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: Not going to Seoul to pick it up yourself? Bought a Sony … Tokyo > Seoul! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Bought a Sony … Tokyo > Seoul! My stepdad just got home from Incheon yesterday. They have great beef dishes, and 7 shots at dinner, all toasting, is apparently the norm there for business. Apparently bull are a delicacy. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: I honestly don't know. I was up late last night picking up our son in Philly and slept in this morning. When I woke up (8:30ish) it was a light rain/sleet mix with just a coating on grassy surfaces. If we did get that burst of snow that you mentioned it would have had to been exceptionally brief. I was thinking you may have been just west of the band. MU mentioned as much, saying how there was noticeable snowfall between the Columbia and Prospect exits of Route 30 but not much outside of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 18 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: During his time on-air in the Altoona market, I do not remember Joe being the type to over hype events. What’s jumping out to me with the initial look into this is surface and 925mb (3000ft) are very cold in central/eastern PA on most guidance. The difference between the Euro and GFS camps right now look to be centered up a little higher at the 850mb (5000ft) level where the Euro is warmer, which lends to it’s more predominant freezing rain p-type vs the prolific pinger fest the GFS has in the central counties. On the other hand, the Euro never seems to portray sleet very well with its p-type algorithm. It certainly still looks supportive of a lot of sleet despite warmer 850 temps because of how cold surface and 925mb is. So as it looks right now, I would lean towards sleet being a more dominant p-type with the significant freezing rain threat in the Laurels. Then of course figuring out the front end snow threat as well. The eastern third of so of PA is definitely in play for a thump, will have to see if any of the central third can get some snow as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I was thinking you may have been just west of the band. MU mentioned as much, saying how there was noticeable snowfall between the Columbia and Prospect exits of Route 30 but not much outside of that. He is still in full-on meltdown mode over models. He's posting completely out of character. And probably because it's changing so drastically in the direction he doesn't want it to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago CTP is already playing up the wind threat for next Monday. Not often I see them talking about that 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago He is still in full-on meltdown mode over models. He's posting completely out of character. And probably because it's changing so drastically in the direction he doesn't want it to go. Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: Seriously? Oh, very serious. I think the most recent word used to describe models is "Pathetic." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, anotherman said: Seriously? @MUweather I know these are operational models in the long range, but yikes! Any run-to-run consistency is, well, non-existent. Ensembles haven't been much better. We're at a crossroads in the numerical modeling world. Just pathetic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12z Euro AI 10:1 24-hour snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 43 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: He is still in full-on meltdown mode over models. He's posting completely out of character. And probably because it's changing so drastically in the direction he doesn't want it to go. He sure is. I'm rather enjoying it haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12z Euro AI 10:1 24-hour snowfall.People see this and think the lesser values mean change to rain when in fact it means glacier Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Meta are experts and are taught and expected to read through multiple scenarios and atmospheric conditions and use your analysis to make a forecast. It’s forecasting, not model reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: CTP is already playing up the wind threat for next Monday. Not often I see them talking about that 5 days out. That cold front looks fierce and will be ushering in serious cold. Could be a high wind scenario for nearly all of PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 54 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @MUweather I know these are operational models in the long range, but yikes! Any run-to-run consistency is, well, non-existent. Ensembles haven't been much better. We're at a crossroads in the numerical modeling world. Just pathetic! Dude needs to take a break. Sit the next few plays out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12z Euro AI Ensemble 10:1 48-hour total snowfall for Friday-Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, AccuChris said: 12z Euro AI Ensemble 10:1 48-hour total snowfall for Friday-Saturday . Lock it in. Not a single person on here misses out on that solution. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 20 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: Lock it in. Not a single person on here misses out on that solution. You very well know this region can’t all cash it together lol But man it’d be awesome if that comes to fruition. No ice!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 23 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: Dude needs to take a break. Sit the next few plays out. Yeah, as I tell my toddler, "Go to your room and recharge your batteries." Professional mets can't be howling about the inconsistencies of the various models; leave that for us amateurs ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Funny thing is, this system has shown up in some fashion off and on in that 12/26-28 timeframe on deterministic guidance basically since it’s gotten within the range of it. Follow up on this part of my earlier post. All the regulars in here know if there’s snow showing anywhere on model guidance that Blizz is on it. And in the case of this potential event Fri/Sat, here’s multiple receipts courtesy of him… as far back as the 14th! Yea guidance has been inconsistent and all over the place, but this potential event/setup didn’t completely come out of nowhere. On 12/18/2025 at 7:37 AM, Blizzard of 93 said: The overnight models are still trying to resolve the potential of a weak wave around Christmas that could deliver a mix for many of us. On 12/14/2025 at 7:06 PM, Blizzard of 93 said: Back to tracking… The 18z GFS this run shows the chance of a Christmas Day icy mix. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 31 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yeah, as I tell my toddler, "Go to your room and recharge your batteries." Professional mets can't be howling about the inconsistencies of the various models; leave that for us amateurs ha. I say this to my toddler. "Cut the shit or I'll give you a reason to blubber." He then kicks me. And it hurts lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago 1 hour ago, AccuChris said: 12z Euro AI Ensemble 10:1 48-hour total snowfall for Friday-Saturday . Where do we sign........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now