Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

1994 there were ruts in the streets for what seemed like a couple of weeks. There was an obscene amount of ice that winter. 

one of the few times I was ok w/ the warmup, as the ice/pot holes were just a wreckin ball to car suspension....and my fillings in my teeth.  

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

one of the few times I was ok w/ the warmup, as the ice/pot holes were just a wreckin ball to car suspension....and my fillings in my teeth.  

Yes! That was exactly how I felt as well, and I'm never ready for a warm up. But after days and days of driving on ice holes (gotta be careful that didn't autocorrect) I was ready for a reset and dry roads again. 

[Jns2183]

This little storm Friday could be our own little Christmas miracle. Not many times forcast goes from a wee bit balmy 59 to 29 in a matter of days. Hopefully the rug isn't pulled from us. It's been a rough few winters around here.

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[Jns2183]

Yes! That was exactly how I felt as well, and I'm never ready for a warm up. But after days and days of driving on ice holes (gotta be careful that didn't autocorrect) I was ready for a reset and dry roads again. 

People would pay good money to drive on the other holes

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[WmsptWx]

During his time on-air in the Altoona market, I do not remember Joe being the type to over hype events. 

[canderson]

Supposed to get a new TV delivered Friday - boo. 
 

My LG OLED died Sunday - panel dead. It’s 41 days outside warranty. I’m so mad. 

[WmsptWx]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Supposed to get a new TV delivered Friday - boo. 
 

My LG OLED died Sunday - panel dead. It’s 41 days outside warranty. I’m so mad. 

Not going to Seoul to pick it up yourself? 

[MAG5035]

3 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

I've never seen meteorologists so angry over models, as they currently are over Friday.

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More often than not models don’t do well handling features with NAO blocking in the medium range, which isn’t necessarily anything new. So they’re now responding to what is looking to be a bit stronger of a -NAO block. Its high stakes with the changeability because our area is on the fringe between a surge of record warmth in the central US and still a decent source of cold air in Canada, which the -WPO (Bering Strait ridge) is providing despite the variable EPO and negative PNA. The northeastern US was never supposed to really warm up, at least for very long because of the -NAO holding off/muting the torch pressing from the central US, something I touched upon in a post a couple days ago.

Now that we have a feature and high pressure suddenly lined up with plenty of cold available to bleed down, we have our setup for a mess instead of a day that looked like was heading for 55-60 a couple days ago. I know I did a double take yesterday when I saw that guidance went over to this. Funny thing is, this system has shown up in some fashion off and on in that 12/26-28 timeframe on deterministic guidance basically since it’s gotten within the range of it. 

[canderson]

13 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Not going to Seoul to pick it up yourself? 

Bought a Sony … Tokyo > Seoul! 

[Jns2183]

Bought a Sony … Tokyo > Seoul! 

My stepdad just got home from Incheon yesterday. They have great beef dishes, and 7 shots at dinner, all toasting, is apparently the norm there for business. Apparently bull are a delicacy.

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[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I honestly don't know. I was up late last night picking up our son in Philly and slept in this morning. When I woke up (8:30ish) it was a light rain/sleet mix with just a coating on grassy surfaces. If we did get that burst of snow that you mentioned it would have had to been exceptionally brief. 

I was thinking you may have been just west of the band.  MU mentioned as much, saying how there was noticeable snowfall between the Columbia and Prospect exits of Route 30 but not much outside of that.

[MAG5035]

18 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

During his time on-air in the Altoona market, I do not remember Joe being the type to over hype events. 

 

What’s jumping out to me with the initial look into this is surface and 925mb (3000ft) are very cold in central/eastern PA on most guidance. The difference between the Euro and GFS camps right now look to be centered up a little higher at the 850mb (5000ft) level where the Euro is warmer, which lends to it’s more predominant freezing rain p-type vs the prolific pinger fest the GFS has in the central counties. On the other hand, the Euro never seems to portray sleet very well with its p-type algorithm. It certainly still looks supportive of a lot of sleet despite warmer 850 temps because of how cold surface and 925mb is. 

So as it looks right now, I would lean towards sleet being a more dominant p-type with the significant freezing rain threat in the Laurels. Then of course figuring out the front end snow threat as well. The eastern third of so of PA is definitely in play for a thump, will have to see if any of the central third can get some snow as well. 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I was thinking you may have been just west of the band.  MU mentioned as much, saying how there was noticeable snowfall between the Columbia and Prospect exits of Route 30 but not much outside of that.

He is still in full-on meltdown mode over models. He's posting completely out of character. And probably because it's changing so drastically in the direction he doesn't want it to go. 

[Itstrainingtime]

CTP is already playing up the wind threat for next Monday. Not often I see them talking about that 5 days out. 

[anotherman]

He is still in full-on meltdown mode over models. He's posting completely out of character. And probably because it's changing so drastically in the direction he doesn't want it to go. 

Seriously?

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Seriously?

Oh, very serious. I think the most recent word used to describe models is "Pathetic."

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Seriously?

@MUweather

I know these are operational models in the long range, but yikes! Any run-to-run consistency is, well, non-existent. Ensembles haven't been much better. We're at a crossroads in the numerical modeling world. Just pathetic!

[AccuChris]

12z Euro AI 10:1 24-hour snowfall


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

43 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

He is still in full-on meltdown mode over models. He's posting completely out of character. And probably because it's changing so drastically in the direction he doesn't want it to go. 

He sure is.  I'm rather enjoying it haha. 

[Jns2183]

12z Euro AI 10:1 24-hour snowfall


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People see this and think the lesser values mean change to rain when in fact it means glacier

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[canderson]

Meta are experts and are taught and expected to read through multiple scenarios and atmospheric conditions and use your analysis to make a forecast.  It’s forecasting, not model reading.  

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

CTP is already playing up the wind threat for next Monday. Not often I see them talking about that 5 days out. 

That cold front looks fierce and will be ushering in serious cold. Could be a high wind scenario for nearly all of PA. 

[WmsptWx]

54 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@MUweather

I know these are operational models in the long range, but yikes! Any run-to-run consistency is, well, non-existent. Ensembles haven't been much better. We're at a crossroads in the numerical modeling world. Just pathetic!

Dude needs to take a break. Sit the next few plays out. 

[AccuChris]

12z Euro AI Ensemble 10:1 48-hour total snowfall for Friday-Saturday


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