Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[PghPirates27]

dang.... 55.4 IMBY today

[PghPirates27]

What do you guys think about this. I say even if we only get a few more 1-3" or 2-4" events this season. I would say this is a success in terms of snowfall? First time in a long time I feel we had a warning level event verify and then a nice cold spell on top of that. Just my two cents. I would give this winter a B+ if we can score a few more WAA events (or what I mentioned above)

[TimB]

10 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

What do you guys think about this. I say even if we only get a few more 1-3" or 2-4" events this season. I would say this is a success in terms of snowfall? First time in a long time I feel we had a warning level event verify and then a nice cold spell on top of that. Just my two cents. I would give this winter a B+ if we can score a few more WAA events (or what I mentioned above)

I would give it a B+ if we don’t see one more flake of snow the entire winter, and I’d be inclined to give it an A if we get at least the 4.3” needed for this to officially be an above average snowfall season.

[Gordo74]

33 minutes ago, TimB said:

I would give it a B+ if we don’t see one more flake of snow the entire winter, and I’d be inclined to give it an A if we get at least the 4.3” needed for this to officially be an above average snowfall season.

This is where I am too. But I think we’re cooked for the season. We will see. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

30 minutes ago, TimB said:

I would give it a B+ if we don’t see one more flake of snow the entire winter, and I’d be inclined to give it an A if we get at least the 4.3” needed for this to officially be an above average snowfall season.

I know its highly subjective, but I'd give it an A. We had a little taste of everything, advisories, warnings, thundersnow, snow squalls, top 5 coldest stretch.  If we manage to hit average snow Id say A+

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

This is where I am too. But I think we’re cooked for the season. We will see. 

I agree that we’re fairly cooked, but average snowfall from now until whenever snow is no longer possible is 15.9”. So we don’t even need 30% of that to get to normal.

[Rd9108]

23 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

This is where I am too. But I think we’re cooked for the season. We will see. 

Huh its only Feb 10. That's a crazy thing to say. This weekend threat could still give us some minor accumulation before the warm up. Then who knows about March and April.

[colonel717]

55 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I know its highly subjective, but I'd give it an A. We had a little taste of everything, advisories, warnings, thundersnow, snow squalls, top 5 coldest stretch.  If we manage to hit average snow Id say A+

I wish you were my teacher in school... I look at it month by month. I give Dec A+, January A+, Feb and March TBD. If this were it for the year, Id give C+ or B-. 

[MikeB_01]

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I know its highly subjective, but I'd give it an A. We had a little taste of everything, advisories, warnings, thundersnow, snow squalls, top 5 coldest stretch.  If we manage to hit average snow Id say A+

i'm with you. We could torch into spring and i'd be a happy man. Feel like we got our fix this winter with pretty consistent cold and frequent shots from early dec-early feb. Thats solid in my book

[TimB]

32 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

I wish you were my teacher in school... I look at it month by month. I give Dec A+, January A+, Feb and March TBD. If this were it for the year, Id give C+ or B-. 

You can’t weight March as heavily as you do DJF, imo. The blizzard of ‘93 has set an unrealistic expectation of March in the mind of any yinzer old enough to remember it.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

7 hours ago, colonel717 said:

I wish you were my teacher in school... I look at it month by month. I give Dec A+, January A+, Feb and March TBD. If this were it for the year, Id give C+ or B-. 

 

I do view it on the whole rather than month by month, and we all want / enjoy things differently, combined with the fact even in a really good storm not all our yards get the same experience. To me that storm in Jan with a foot of snow, snow falling during the day, with temperatures in the low teens followed by 2 weeks of snowpack is pure perfection. I weight that much higher than some 4-6 event in late Feb or early March that melts 12 hours later. I also weight a colder and snowier December higher than if it happened in February. I think the other thing is the consistent cold, sure we had thaws, but we were tracking snow possibilities the entire season to this point which is rare. 

Put it this way, if next November I was given the option to have a repeat of this winter play out similarly over the course of December and January, or roll the dice and "hope" for something better it would be hard to pass up on that offer.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

7 hours ago, TimB said:

You can’t weight March as heavily as you do DJF, imo. The blizzard of ‘93 has set an unrealistic expectation of March in the mind of any yinzer old enough to remember it.

I agree with you here. If there ever was a good month to torch, it's March, at least after the first week to 10 days. Sure, if you are going to get some blockbuster snowstorm, I'm all for it, but a 2–4-inch snow in March is more of a nuisance than enjoyment vs if it happens in DJF.

[colonel717]

10 hours ago, TimB said:

You can’t weight March as heavily as you do DJF, imo. The blizzard of ‘93 has set an unrealistic expectation of March in the mind of any yinzer old enough to remember it.

March is a winter month. 93 has not set unrealistic expectations for me. We average 7.6 inches of snow. I grade each month to start based on meeting or exceeding the average monthly snow. 

[Rd9108]

Am I the only one curiously watching the Sunday-monday threat. Idt we have a chance at a jackpot but idt we are necessarily out of it either. 

[MikeB_01]

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Am I the only one curiously watching the Sunday-monday threat. Idt we have a chance at a jackpot but idt we are necessarily out of it either. 

I just don't see a ton of support for anything snow wise. GEFS has only 1 member showing any snow and the EPS only has 6 members showing any snow at all. It could happen, but i don't see enough support to hop on board

[colonel717]

58 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Am I the only one curiously watching the Sunday-monday threat. Idt we have a chance at a jackpot but idt we are necessarily out of it either. 

I curiously watch them all. Just not highly invested because such low odds. It's just as Mike said there is no support outside of CMC which is on an island. There is just not much cold air to tap even if we do get a perfect track. 

[TimB]

1 hour ago, colonel717 said:

March is a winter month. 93 has not set unrealistic expectations for me. We average 7.6 inches of snow. I grade each month to start based on meeting or exceeding the average monthly snow. 

When 93 drops out of the normals (just five years away from that!), we’ll lose probably about a full inch out of that 7.6”.

[colonel717]

5 minutes ago, TimB said:

When 93 drops out of the normals (just five years away from that!), we’ll lose probably about a full inch out of that 7.6”.

That doesn't change my point. It still is a winter month and counts in our annual average even at 6.5 inches. It will be graded on the lower total then. 

[colonel717]

So you are saying there is a chance...

One GEFS member has the storm and its a huge one...I'm ALL in. Lets go...

[SteelCity87]

37 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

So you are saying there is a chance...

One GEFS member has the storm and its a huge one...I'm ALL in. Lets go...

That would hold me over until fall for sure lol 

[MikeB_01]

2 hours ago, colonel717 said:

So you are saying there is a chance...

One GEFS member has the storm and its a huge one...I'm ALL in. Lets go...

lol the only member that is over 1" and it is a 2' bomb

[colonel717]

Some decent snow going thru Butler Co and at @RitualOfTheTrout home.

[EVLINC64]

 

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

·

9m

 

 

wpo goes negative and look what happens 5-15 days after. Neither cold shot was seen a week to 2 weeks out ( hence record rises in NG). Be careful after the 20th

[Gordo74]

21 hours ago, colonel717 said:

March is a winter month. 93 has not set unrealistic expectations for me. We average 7.6 inches of snow. I grade each month to start based on meeting or exceeding the average monthly snow. 

Maybe this is where the mismatch is for me, personally. March is meteorological spring, so in my mind, any snow there isn't part of a winter expectation for me and only counts as bonus points.

[TimB]

44 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

Maybe this is where the mismatch is for me, personally. March is meteorological spring, so in my mind, any snow there isn't part of a winter expectation for me and only counts as bonus points.

I don’t know about you, but I thought this past November was a colossal failure. 0.5” against a normal of 2.4”.

And October was even worse. We got exactly 0% of our monthly normal of 0.4”.

[Gordo74]

49 minutes ago, TimB said:

I don’t know about you, but I thought this past November was a colossal failure. 0.5” against a normal of 2.4”.

And October was even worse. We got exactly 0% of our monthly normal of 0.4”.

To me, that’s also bonus snow. I’m focused squarely inside the hashmarks of meteorological winter (Dec, Jan, Feb). I like that we get (mostly) all four seasons and look forward to the next one by the end of the 3 month stretch. Wouldn’t mind taking some from summer to add to fall though all things considered.

Although, that said, if we get an absolute whopper of a storm to track in March, I won’t be upset and it would be nice to get above average for the season (storm or otherwise), but I’m very happy with how the three months setup, with Feb focusing on the cold more than the snow.

[TheClimateChanger]

22 hours ago, TimB said:

When 93 drops out of the normals (just five years away from that!), we’ll lose probably about a full inch out of that 7.6”.

Current 25-year average for March is currently 5.9":

[Burghblizz]

We’d always say “March averages more snow than December here”. Seems like that has regressed a bit to be about even. Yeah ‘93 may inflate things, but we’ve all had a few abnormally light Marches as well. So it tends to balance, and the average is what it is. 

I think even though mindsets start to shift away from winter - still historically plenty of opportunities through March. 

[Rd9108]

The cold harbringer himself mentioned the WPO going negative which should Usher in colder air after the warm up. We shall see, the one mjo plot is saw wasn't ideal. Idk i havent really looked into anything since our snow chances disappeared.

[TimB]

Next week is already trending away from the huge, extended torch, so maybe that’s a good sign that it’s not curtains for winter just yet.