Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[colonel717]

2 hours ago, Gordo74 said:

How's next weekend looking on the models?

Take a look at the models for yourself.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

[colonel717]

3k has 4 inches over Wexford

[colonel717]

Not much time left with the NAM's and SREF

[colonel717]

From Cleve on the Arctic front to get idea of timing. 

The latest 12z and 18z
hi-res forecast model guidance shows the Arctic front arriving
in NWOH and around the Toledo area around 4 pm and 6 pm. The
front will arrive in the Cleveland area between 5 pm and 7 pm
and the Erie, Akron, Canton, Youngstown area between 6 pm and 8
pm. The guidance shows the potential for a broken line of
heavier snow showers or possible snow squalls along the passage
of the Arctic front Friday evening.

[EVLINC64]

55 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Not much time left with the NAM's and SREF

Might want to  shitcan the GooFoS

[jwilson]

1-2" is the general idea for tomorrow.  NBM mean is 1.4" at PIT and 1.1" at AGC with decent enough odds of >1" (70%+).

Only takes 0.1" at 10:1 to get an inch, so we don't need a ton of moisture with even better ratios.  Could be between 15:1 and 20:1, give or take.  Latest NAM and GFS are both ~2" according to BUFKIT.

4 hours ago, Gordo74 said:

How's next weekend looking on the models?

Next weekend still a ways out.  Nothing really interesting on the operationals.  Cutters and other sheared-out messes.  Ensembles have also lost a bit of the signal, so I think odds are against anything relevant for now.  It will likely change.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

5 hours ago, colonel717 said:

I think we get one more cold relative to average shot. Obviously not like what's coming this weekend, but serviceable for late season snow chances.

In any case, I noticed some melting, a few bare areas on steeper south facing slopes driving home. We are getting to the end of the reasonable expectation for snow retention anyways if its a sunny day.

Looking forward to the clipper and wind this weekend.

[Gordo74]

2 hours ago, colonel717 said:

Take a look at the models for yourself.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Hey thanks! Never had these links before and just relied on the hype machine of this forum. Appreciate you

[TimB]

This clipper is starting to look like a dud. Radar looks pretty sparse so far. Hope I’m wrong.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

46 minutes ago, TimB said:

This clipper is starting to look like a dud. Radar looks pretty sparse so far. Hope I’m wrong.

We've been looking at a 1-2 inch range, maybe 3 in an isolated spot to fall over like a 12 hour period. That still looks reasonable so not sure it's a "dud". Even if it ends up on the lower side of the range its still within the expectation. The more "steady" light snow wasn't forecast until late morning / early afternoon, then we see a lull until the cold front blows through.

I do think we've seen a slight push for the better totals to the South and West over the past couple days, but these things have such a narrow area of "jackpot" totals its not surprising to see that move around.

[TheClimateChanger]

Surprised to see some areas of freezing drizzle on my way into work today.

[TimB]

Dry slotted to hell. Wonder if we even get an inch.

[MikeB_01]

8 minutes ago, TimB said:

Dry slotted to hell. Wonder if we even get an inch.

It will fill in. I think we will still pull an inch. However, I'm not going to fret if i get .75" instead of 1.5". This ones been trending down all week. If anything, I'll just enjoy the snow falling consistently out there. 

[Burghblizz]

5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

It will fill in. I think we will still pull an inch. However, I'm not going to fret if i get .75" instead of 1.5". This ones been trending down all week. If anything, I'll just enjoy the snow falling consistently out there. 

I still have close to  10” in my yard, so any snow on snow is good. Interesting to see if that secondary squall line develops this evening

[colonel717]

Moderate snow here now. Will enjoy anything that we get. 

[MikeB_01]

coming down good right now