Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[colonel717]

2 hours ago, Gordo74 said:

How's next weekend looking on the models?

Take a look at the models for yourself.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

[colonel717]

3k has 4 inches over Wexford

[colonel717]

Not much time left with the NAM's and SREF

[colonel717]

From Cleve on the Arctic front to get idea of timing. 

The latest 12z and 18z
hi-res forecast model guidance shows the Arctic front arriving
in NWOH and around the Toledo area around 4 pm and 6 pm. The
front will arrive in the Cleveland area between 5 pm and 7 pm
and the Erie, Akron, Canton, Youngstown area between 6 pm and 8
pm. The guidance shows the potential for a broken line of
heavier snow showers or possible snow squalls along the passage
of the Arctic front Friday evening.

[EVLINC64]

55 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Not much time left with the NAM's and SREF

Might want to  shitcan the GooFoS

[jwilson]

1-2" is the general idea for tomorrow.  NBM mean is 1.4" at PIT and 1.1" at AGC with decent enough odds of >1" (70%+).

Only takes 0.1" at 10:1 to get an inch, so we don't need a ton of moisture with even better ratios.  Could be between 15:1 and 20:1, give or take.  Latest NAM and GFS are both ~2" according to BUFKIT.

4 hours ago, Gordo74 said:

How's next weekend looking on the models?

Next weekend still a ways out.  Nothing really interesting on the operationals.  Cutters and other sheared-out messes.  Ensembles have also lost a bit of the signal, so I think odds are against anything relevant for now.  It will likely change.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

5 hours ago, colonel717 said:

I think we get one more cold relative to average shot. Obviously not like what's coming this weekend, but serviceable for late season snow chances.

In any case, I noticed some melting, a few bare areas on steeper south facing slopes driving home. We are getting to the end of the reasonable expectation for snow retention anyways if its a sunny day.

Looking forward to the clipper and wind this weekend.

[Gordo74]

2 hours ago, colonel717 said:

Take a look at the models for yourself.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Hey thanks! Never had these links before and just relied on the hype machine of this forum. Appreciate you