Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[colonel717]

Not much on GEFS. Worse than 6z. Keeps all south of the border

 

[MikeB_01]

54 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Nothing on radar but decent snow shower breaking out.

i thought i was crazy when i didnt see anything with reflectivity but could see if snowing outside. I did a little research and figured out that sometimes correlation coefficient sniffs out these low level pixie dust snows. Just thought that was pretty cool 

[southpark]

3 hours ago, colonel717 said:

A funny story. They have done a terrible job clearing our roads in my neighborhood. Yesterday we didn't get mail delivered because mailman said he couldn't get to mailboxes. Basically a car and a half could fit on the road instead of 2 cars. He delivered to a couple houses on my road but not mine. When mine was clear as could be. Well late yesterday afternoon, a plow came, must have been in response to mail issue, and opened up the street and mailbox access more. As he did that he plowed snow back onto the front of people driveways. I cleared mine as soon as he came because I knew the slop would refreeze into ice blocks.  I just looked out and saw my neighbor with his snowblower to clear the plowed in snow. Well he tried but it was too frozen and then had to use a shovel.  As he started he walked over towards his mailbox and shot the finger at it. I'm sure he wasn't expecting anyone to see that but I am sure that is a lot of peoples reaction to the snow... 

I just had to flag down my mail person since they can't reach our box because of how they plowed around my mailbox. 

[MikeB_01]

Ensembles continue to show high confidence in a Nor`easter
developing this weekend off the eastern seaboard as a digging
eastern trough invokes cyclogenesis Saturday into Sunday. What
we are still uncertain of is the exact track of the low tied to
the timing of (or if) the upper low closes off from the flow.

The snowiest scenario is one in which the low closes early is
deeper. There is really only one cluster representing 25% of
guidance at this point that allows for this to happen. Should
it occur, probabilities of snow are mostly confined to the high
terrain of West Virginia (60% chance of >1", 30% chance of >3",
10% chance of >6"). 75% of guidance has the low closing too
late (and too east) or not deep enough to suggest much appreciable
snow accumulation in the forecast area at this time.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 hours ago, colonel717 said:

Not much on GEFS. Worse than 6z. Keeps all south of the border

 

Yeah, we are toast on this one I'd say, barring some crazy fail of all guidance.  Honestly, it's a terrible waste of potential for most of the east. 

Outside of some light clipper type systems, I think we need to get past the brutal cold this weekend and see if anything can spin up as it relaxes a little bit. 

[colonel717]

1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said:

Ensembles continue to show high confidence in a Nor`easter
developing this weekend off the eastern seaboard as a digging
eastern trough invokes cyclogenesis Saturday into Sunday. What
we are still uncertain of is the exact track of the low tied to
the timing of (or if) the upper low closes off from the flow.

The snowiest scenario is one in which the low closes early is
deeper. There is really only one cluster representing 25% of
guidance at this point that allows for this to happen. Should
it occur, probabilities of snow are mostly confined to the high
terrain of West Virginia (60% chance of >1", 30% chance of >3",
10% chance of >6"). 75% of guidance has the low closing too
late (and too east) or not deep enough to suggest much appreciable
snow accumulation in the forecast area at this time.

So, the overall message is this: there is a better-than-even

chance of virtually no snow from this system anywhere in our

forecast area. the worst-case scenarios (10 percent of the

overall model runs) would bring such snows as far west as

Morgantown and Uniontown, with warning-level snow in Tucker

County. Overall trends favor a continued decrease in

probabilities of the higher snow totals, but this of course

will be monitored for any changes.

 

National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
149 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Chances of flurries and light snow into tomorrow have
  increased a bit, with accumulations remaining under an inch in
  most cases.

[colonel717]

So you are saying there’s a chance…

Watch come Thursday night this cuts over the Delmarva into SE PA.

: 4 srefs at 15z do just that

 

What period is the next shot at a big one? Seems like everything going forward is light to moderate the last couple days of runs

Pgh Met: It's hard to imagine we are completely done with big threats if the weeklies are correct with the major Greenland block over the next several weeks.

After the 1st week of Feb is when the Greenland block becomes significantly stronger on all the ensembles. Would say that is our next big window.

The key is getting that to move up in time & not trend significantly weaker like we see with some -NAO driven patterns in the extended range.

[jwilson]

We might get a few light snows in between, but I think the next period to watch for something more interesting is that Sunday-Tuesday timeframe, Feb 8-10.

Some models have teased an event.  I've seen some favorable looks, but nothing incredibly consistent yet.  A few things to watch.

Another neutral slide in the PNA around that time.  Long-range hints at a 50/50 and -NAO.  Ridge placement could be ideal.

Maybe more chances with the -AO remaining quite negative.  Not even sure yet when this pattern is keyed to break down.

[Rd9108]

I know we wont get hit by every snowstorm but its pretty cool that this next wave will most likely crush North Carolina and possibly bring showers all the way down to Florida. 

[Ahoff]

We have a real shot at getting one of the longest stretches with below freezing temperatures.  6 days so far, but if we believe the weather channel right now the entire extended forecast stays below freezing ending the forecast at 20 days, that would put us top 5.  Need 16 to crack the list.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

While we wait for the next threat, this is a pretty good read on what to expect for February:

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

January forecast did very well, although it was slightly colder than expected due to the unexpected late month -NAO.

There is also a preview of what may be an active February included.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/.../remarkably...

 

 

Also, never heard of this process before in the NWS discussion. I was curious why we were seeing light snow this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Low chances of flurries will continue through the next few
days, likely maximizing each afternoon. This is because of
incredibly efficient Burgeron-Fendisen processes in mixed phase
clouds, making it very easy for any cloud to produce ice
crystals. Each afternoon, this will be slightly enhanced by
diurnal heating and destabilization, and the fact that the
near-surface layer will peak into the DGZ with warming.

[TimB]

15 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

While we wait for the next threat, this is a pretty good read on what to expect for February:

Also, never heard of this process before in the NWS discussion. I was curious why we were seeing light snow this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Low chances of flurries will continue through the next few
days, likely maximizing each afternoon. This is because of
incredibly efficient Burgeron-Fendisen processes in mixed phase
clouds, making it very easy for any cloud to produce ice
crystals. Each afternoon, this will be slightly enhanced by
diurnal heating and destabilization, and the fact that the
near-surface layer will peak into the DGZ with warming.

Yeah the other day I was out for a walk with the dog and it was snowing and there was barely a cloud in the sky.

[colonel717]

Looks like unless things change, we are going to be riding the clipper train over next 2 weeks starting mid next week. Come and ride the train... Some look to be very juicy at this time. 

[TimB]

Interested to see if we get better radiational cooling conditions tonight and/or tomorrow night and see how cold we can go, or if it’ll just be kinda meh like the last few nights.