Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[dj3]

6 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Not sure it was that or there was just more precip. 

Glad to see it bump back up. 

[Mailman]

DT always does poorly here, but I'll post anyway.

 

[MikeB_01]

DT always does poorly here, but I'll post anyway.
 

It’s so aggressive with the 16+ in such a huge area.


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[southpark]

These runs have looked fantastic. Also, people have lost their minds at the grocery store.

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, southpark said:

These runs have looked fantastic. Also, people have lost their minds at the grocery store.

I had food delivered this morning. Just a few things but I wasnt going to the grocery store for them.

[MikeB_01]

These runs have looked fantastic. Also, people have lost their minds at the grocery store.

The amount of people I have heard talking about wide spread power outages… not sure who is selling that narrative.


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[Burghblizz]

1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

The amount of people I have heard talking about wide spread power outages… not sure who is selling that narrative.


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I think NWS has mentioned it to the south since there is a chance of both wetter snow and ice

[southpark]

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I had food delivered this morning. Just a few things but I wasnt going to the grocery store for them.

Probably smart. I think i read Giant Eagle was offering free delivery through tomorrow if anyone needs it!

[colonel717]

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

That storm next weekend is a legit blizzard.

Key for us, assuming its anywhere close to accurate is get that phase to happen much earlier. 

There are several huge members on the GEFS. More benefitting our area than I expected. Thought there'd be more on the coast. 

[colonel717]

What are everyone's expectations and is there a total that if we don't reach it you view as a disappointment?

Given how much time I invested, the consistency in amounts shown on models, I am setting my disappointment level at less than a foot. A foot is so rare here we have a great chance and to not make it would be disappointing to me. 

[Ahoff]

Does this feel slightly 2010-ish?  Like we were hovering around the 12"+ for forecasts, and then got really surprised.  Now, I know there was probably a better slight up to allow for 20"+, but still, interesting.

[colonel717]

Just now, Ahoff said:

Does this feel slightly 2010-ish?  Like we were hovering around the 12"+ for forecasts, and then got really surprised.  Now, I know there was probably a better slight up to allow for 20"+, but still, interesting.

2010 was 3-6 the day of and the NAM kept going up if I recall. That was Jeff V infamous call of not upping his totals. There was way more upside with that storm. This one doesn't have high upside and it has been modeled well overall. 

[PghPirates27]

8 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

What are everyone's expectations and is there a total that if we don't reach it you view as a disappointment?

Given how much time I invested, the consistency in amounts shown on models, I am setting my disappointment level at less than a foot. A foot is so rare here we have a great chance and to not make it would be disappointing to me. 

I'll take 6-8" anything 6" or less and I'll call it a bust. Just really looking forward to a full daytime snow on Sunday and not everything during the night hours. 

[Rd9108]

5 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

2010 was 3-6 the day of and the NAM kept going up if I recall. That was Jeff V infamous call of not upping his totals. There was way more upside with that storm. This one doesn't have high upside and it has been modeled well overall. 

Didn't places like DC get like 3 feet?

[Gordo74]

12 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

What are everyone's expectations and is there a total that if we don't reach it you view as a disappointment?

Given how much time I invested, the consistency in amounts shown on models, I am setting my disappointment level at less than a foot. A foot is so rare here we have a great chance and to not make it would be disappointing to me. 

My personal line is 8"

[TimB]

Long range HRRR is pretty warm… but gets it done in Allegheny.

[Mailman]

HRRR has rain in Morgantown Sunday evening.

[Mailman]

That wasn't a good start to the 0z suite.

...but it's late in the run HRRR.  So, I don't know.

[Ahoff]

1 minute ago, TimB said:

Long range HRRR is pretty warm… but gets it done in Allegheny.

Yeah, looking at that the air temperature gets pretty high.  Definitely not the teens low 20s advertised, but mix or freezing rain generally stays south of the border except for a few tiny blips in the Laurels.  A lot of those later hours we're picking up 1"+ per hour too.

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, Mailman said:

That wasn't a good start to the 0z suite.

...but it's late in the run HRRR.  So, I don't know.

HRRR is godawful at that range. I wouldn’t stress one bit, even south.

[MikeB_01]

2 minutes ago, Mailman said:

That wasn't a good start to the 0z suite.

...but it's late in the run HRRR.  So, I don't know.

something looked a little off on the last couple of frames on the HRRR. No mix at all, but only in the area. And that run looked really good until the rain jumped north pretty abruptly

[Rd9108]

Well other than it looking warm HRRR smokes the area 12 inches and still more to go. Hopefully we all cash in especially our southern members.

[southpark]

23 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

2010 was 3-6 the day of and the NAM kept going up if I recall. That was Jeff V infamous call of not upping his totals. There was way more upside with that storm. This one doesn't have high upside and it has been modeled well overall. 

I have detested Jeff V ever since then. I mentioned to a coworker the other day how he was still calling for that amount when I had more snow than that on the ground. I remember models were trending very well for us at least a few days before the event. But not 20+.

[Burghblizz]

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Well other than it looking warm HRRR smokes the area 12 inches and still more to go. Hopefully we all cash in especially our southern members.

Yeah as far as the overall area, it probably would have wound up averaging around 15” for the entire storm. I do think it’s overdoing that tongue for the southerners. 

Those rapid refreshes tend to drag more warm air in, and the longer ranges loses the short term data assimilation that anchors it. 

[southpark]

31 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

What are everyone's expectations and is there a total that if we don't reach it you view as a disappointment?

Given how much time I invested, the consistency in amounts shown on models, I am setting my disappointment level at less than a foot. A foot is so rare here we have a great chance and to not make it would be disappointing to me. 

I would like 8 to 10 and will be a little disappointed with anything less than that only because of what models have shown. 

[southpark]

25 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Didn't places like DC get like 3 feet?

Yes.

[CoraopolisWx]

36 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Does this feel slightly 2010-ish?  Like we were hovering around the 12"+ for forecasts, and then got really surprised.  Now, I know there was probably a better slight up to allow for 20"+, but still, interesting.

For me it’s a bit of PD2 and 2010. 
Both had strong WAA snowfall. 

[MikeB_01]

What are everyone's expectations and is there a total that if we don't reach it you view as a disappointment?
Given how much time I invested, the consistency in amounts shown on models, I am setting my disappointment level at less than a foot. A foot is so rare here we have a great chance and to not make it would be disappointing to me. 

I think at this point I’ll be upset with anything under 10”.


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[TimB]

I take that back. The warm tongue is back with a vengeance on the NAM for those south and east of the city.

[colonel717]

33 minutes ago, Mailman said:

HRRR has rain in Morgantown Sunday evening.

It's way out of its range.