Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[Rd9108]

Just now, colonel717 said:

3k looks better with a lot of snow left

 

Wait thats the 3k. Thats 14 inches with more to go?? 

[Rd9108]

Btw is this a case where if its snowing hard enough that it will be snow for the fringe areas?

[Burghblizz]

That’s a good sign if higher res is showing less of the garbage 

[colonel717]

The heaviest snow is Sunday evening around 7. That would be nice. Average almost inch an hour last 12 hours of storm

[MikeB_01]

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Btw is this a case where if its snowing hard enough that it will be snow for the fringe areas?

this is an interesting question. I'm not sure the heavy precip can have the same affect on a column of air that has already been saturated? Someone way smarter than me would need to address this

[MikeB_01]

2 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

The heaviest snow is Sunday evening around 7. That would be nice. 

 

[Rd9108]

Icon held on. 

[Rd9108]

[Homie J]

10 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

this is an interesting question. I'm not sure the heavy precip can have the same affect on a column of air that has already been saturated? Someone way smarter than me would need to address this

Once you saturate the column, heavy precipitation won't cool the column from evaporative cooling.  You can get cooling from melting but by that point you are likely getting sleet mixing in.

[southpark]

11 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

 

That's the issue for us...sometimes we have to flirt with the mix line to get the heavy stuff.

[colonel717]

ICON not letting go of high totals. That was ICON best run yet.

 

[colonel717]

RGEM

[colonel717]

[colonel717]

From another board on the latest PGH NWS discussion

"I believe they are wrong but they are thinking the warm nose cuts further north through West Virginia. I think many mets (outside of content now) are underestimating the QPF that's going to come north. Part of it is that you really don't want to bust by predicting too high because you've gotten the masses in a frenzy, but I also feel that what has been shown this year is that you need to add 10-20% to the performance of the system. Maybe the warm nose does cut in, but I'll take my chances and say that that low doesn't hang on as long."

[Mailman]

4 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

From another board on the latest PGH NWS discussion

"I believe they are wrong but they are thinking the warm nose cuts further north through West Virginia. I think many mets (outside of content now) are underestimating the QPF that's going to come north. Part of it is that you really don't want to bust by predicting too high because you've gotten the masses in a frenzy, but I also feel that what has been shown this year is that you need to add 10-20% to the performance of the system. Maybe the warm nose does cut in, but I'll take my chances and say that that low doesn't hang on as long."

Is this from someone you trust or some weenie (like me)?

[colonel717]

2 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Is this from someone you trust or some weenie (like me)?

Ha ha. Someone who I trust. He is from Cranberry and went to PSU Meteorology. He said just look at the precipitable water image and you will see how much moisture.

[colonel717]

Wow GFS totals went up so far. ended up about the same

[CoraopolisWx]

WSWarnings from Mexico to Montpelier. Impressive

[colonel717]

This one is in the bag... Time to focus on reeling in next weekend potential. We will most likely be a western edge hit if anything. I wonder how the snow pack after this storm will affect the next one. How will snow pack help set up the baroclinic zone.

[colonel717]

[Mailman]

I can't speak to the accuracy of the GRAF model.

[Rd9108]

8 minutes ago, Mailman said:

I can't speak to the accuracy of the GRAF model.

Have you ever read about the GRAF?

[Mailman]

News stations use it.  I know that much.

[Ahoff]

19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Have you ever read about the GRAF?

No, what's the story?

[RitualOfTheTrout]

56 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

This one is in the bag... Time to focus on reeling in next weekend potential. We will most likely be a western edge hit if anything. I wonder how the snow pack after this storm will affect the next one. How will snow pack help set up the baroclinic zone.

That storm next weekend is a legit blizzard.

Key for us, assuming its anywhere close to accurate is get that phase to happen much earlier. 

[colonel717]

Euro looks like it is juiced 

[Ahoff]

Down to 9 outside, so it's cold, lol.  Dumb concern from me earlier.