Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[Burghblizz]

Euro is Amped! 

[Gordo74]

Completely out of it to near direct hit in 24 hours, incredible. Seems to still be moving around a lot. I'm waiting until tomorrow morning to make a call on a trip to MD, but it's looking less and less likely.

[Rd9108]

Whats funny is its only wednesday. So realistically still what 3 days out. Anything can happen. NBM looks better 

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

No more north trend or that warm nose will creep and cause mixing Sunday afternoon..

 

 

 

[Ahoff]

Weather channel has us up to 8-12” in the point and click.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

Weather channel has us up to 8-12” in the point and click.

iPhone app is up to 16-20 inches, 15-18 of which is forecast to fall on Sunday.

[Ecanem]

6z euro

[Ahoff]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

iPhone app is up to 16-20 inches, 15-18 of which is forecast to fall on Sunday.

I did see that, lol.  I am disregarding that for now, but with these trends…?

[Gordo74]

7 minutes ago, Ecanem said:

6z euro

 

Warm tongue alert. We all know where that ends up.

[Rd9108]

11 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

Warm tongue alert. We all know where that ends up.

Easy. Other models dont show that yet. 

 

[TimB]

22 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I did see that, lol.  I am disregarding that for now, but with these trends…?

With these trends I’m starting to get nervous this goes the other direction and we mix to rain. Tale as old as time.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

19 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

Warm tongue alert. We all know where that ends up.

I wouldn't get worried about this yet. There is still considerable spread in the ensembles, and the degree of phasing is still up in the air. While the 00z models looked great for the most part (continued into 6z) to me confidence won't really start to increase until Thursday 12z runs. It's about just as likely we see more changes today at 12z as we did last night, how it affects our outcome is tbd.

[MikeB_01]

Just going through some of the runs from last night while I was sleeping. The trend continued from the EPS as well. QPF increased to .9" from on the 00z suite. Good to see more members moving this direction

[MikeB_01]

Pivotal moving sooo sluggish right now. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

7 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Pivotal moving sooo sluggish right now. 

Probably millions of weenies hitting refresh killing the servers. 

12z will be rolling shortly, let's hope we continue to see a strong interaction between the northern and southern stream like last night.

[colonel717]

10 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Just going through some of the runs from last night while I was sleeping. The trend continued from the EPS as well. QPF increased to .9" from on the 00z suite. Good to see more members moving this direction

Concerning? There is a decent number of lows big time west of us. I don't think this is far from being down trending. 

[MikeB_01]

6 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Concerning? There is a decent number of lows big time west of us. I don't think this is far from being down trending. 

 

 

[Burghblizz]

If that happens…and it’s a big if….antecedent cold is more than typical. So I think the results would still be good, even if it ends with some mix. 

[TheClimateChanger]

NAM looking very juicy at 84.

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

NAM looking very juicy at 84.

And these are the corresponding temperatures at hour 84. Should be good SWE ratios, I would think.

[colonel717]

NAM would have been a crusher. Looks like snow would start around 7pm Saturday. 

[MikeB_01]

12z ICON

[colonel717]

4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

12z ICON

 

Snow depth maps are terrible even in warm storms. 12+ on Kuchara.

[MikeB_01]

Just now, colonel717 said:

Snow depth maps are terrible even in warm storms. 12+ on Kuchara.

sure. Good to see the pattern and storm track

[colonel717]

AIGFS held serve if not got slightly better.

[colonel717]

Best GFS run yet. Inching better each run.

[Burghblizz]

GFS to me looks like not quite the phase, but gets the job done. Might trade some rates for longer duration, but looking like 12+ into SW Pa.

[colonel717]

Lake Erie almost fully frozen over.  

[MikeB_01]

2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

GFS to me looks like not quite the phase, but gets the job done. Might trade some rates for longer duration, but looking like 12+ into SW Pa.

 

3 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Best GFS run yet. Inching better each run.

Yes. GFS is another notch in the right direction. Mixing issues staying far away on that run. Definitely not negatively tilted, but the energy is more out in front of the trough sweeping in behind it. Thats a good spot to be I think

[colonel717]

No CMC keep that warm nose away. Uggh mix right over Bethel Park. and SAGC. Seems that CMC always does best sniffing out warm layers. Hope its wrong. Still did well. I would be more than happy with 10-12 inches.