Burghblizz Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Euro is Amped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Completely out of it to near direct hit in 24 hours, incredible. Seems to still be moving around a lot. I'm waiting until tomorrow morning to make a call on a trip to MD, but it's looking less and less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Whats funny is its only wednesday. So realistically still what 3 days out. Anything can happen. NBM looks better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 No more north trend or that warm nose will creep and cause mixing Sunday afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Weather channel has us up to 8-12” in the point and click. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: Weather channel has us up to 8-12” in the point and click. iPhone app is up to 16-20 inches, 15-18 of which is forecast to fall on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6z euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: iPhone app is up to 16-20 inches, 15-18 of which is forecast to fall on Sunday. I did see that, lol. I am disregarding that for now, but with these trends…? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, Ecanem said: 6z euro Warm tongue alert. We all know where that ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 11 minutes ago, Gordo74 said: Warm tongue alert. We all know where that ends up. Easy. Other models dont show that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 22 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I did see that, lol. I am disregarding that for now, but with these trends…? With these trends I’m starting to get nervous this goes the other direction and we mix to rain. Tale as old as time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 19 minutes ago, Gordo74 said: Warm tongue alert. We all know where that ends up. I wouldn't get worried about this yet. There is still considerable spread in the ensembles, and the degree of phasing is still up in the air. While the 00z models looked great for the most part (continued into 6z) to me confidence won't really start to increase until Thursday 12z runs. It's about just as likely we see more changes today at 12z as we did last night, how it affects our outcome is tbd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just going through some of the runs from last night while I was sleeping. The trend continued from the EPS as well. QPF increased to .9" from on the 00z suite. Good to see more members moving this direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Pivotal moving sooo sluggish right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Pivotal moving sooo sluggish right now. Probably millions of weenies hitting refresh killing the servers. 12z will be rolling shortly, let's hope we continue to see a strong interaction between the northern and southern stream like last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 10 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Just going through some of the runs from last night while I was sleeping. The trend continued from the EPS as well. QPF increased to .9" from on the 00z suite. Good to see more members moving this direction Concerning? There is a decent number of lows big time west of us. I don't think this is far from being down trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Concerning? There is a decent number of lows big time west of us. I don't think this is far from being down trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 If that happens…and it’s a big if….antecedent cold is more than typical. So I think the results would still be good, even if it ends with some mix. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 NAM looking very juicy at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, TheClimateChanger said: NAM looking very juicy at 84. And these are the corresponding temperatures at hour 84. Should be good SWE ratios, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 NAM would have been a crusher. Looks like snow would start around 7pm Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 12z ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: 12z ICON Snow depth maps are terrible even in warm storms. 12+ on Kuchara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, colonel717 said: Snow depth maps are terrible even in warm storms. 12+ on Kuchara. sure. Good to see the pattern and storm track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 AIGFS held serve if not got slightly better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Best GFS run yet. Inching better each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 GFS to me looks like not quite the phase, but gets the job done. Might trade some rates for longer duration, but looking like 12+ into SW Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Lake Erie almost fully frozen over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: GFS to me looks like not quite the phase, but gets the job done. Might trade some rates for longer duration, but looking like 12+ into SW Pa. 3 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Best GFS run yet. Inching better each run. Yes. GFS is another notch in the right direction. Mixing issues staying far away on that run. Definitely not negatively tilted, but the energy is more out in front of the trough sweeping in behind it. Thats a good spot to be I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 No CMC keep that warm nose away. Uggh mix right over Bethel Park. and SAGC. Seems that CMC always does best sniffing out warm layers. Hope its wrong. Still did well. I would be more than happy with 10-12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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