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Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26


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18 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Hard to measure with all the drifting and blowing last night. Maybe 4-5” on the ground. Definitely didn’t get more than 6” combined from the two days.


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I would think you had more than that if I had around 9. Snow sublimation has eaten a lot of my snow. 

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12 hours ago, colonel717 said:

Bit of a crazy gradient here with that storm. I think it was officially 10”, but it ramped up quick south and east. Some places south would have gotten their 3rd 20” storm in less than 3 years (this after a very slow period in the late 80s, early 90s)

Mixed feelings on it overall. I lived in Oakland and had a solid foot. But obviously one of the impactful storms ever in terms of the amounts it dumped on highly populated areas. Tough to see others getting 20 and 30”

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Once we make it through this warm-up, looking like Sunday/Monday could bring some post frontal snow squalls. We have done well with those so far. Then mid-week a little bigger system is possible. Canadian 12z run has a nice 4+ inch northern stream storm. If we can get some phasing could improve those total. GFS had a bigger storm for 15th on 6z but lost the phasing on 12z. ICON at end of it's run looks like it has good potential. We have some time to figure that out but nice to start seeing things pop up on the models.

 

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On 1/7/2026 at 11:47 AM, colonel717 said:

Once we make it through this warm-up, looking like Sunday/Monday could bring some post frontal snow squalls. We have done well with those so far. Then mid-week a little bigger system is possible. Canadian 12z run has a nice 4+ inch northern stream storm. If we can get some phasing could improve those total. GFS had a bigger storm for 15th on 6z but lost the phasing on 12z. ICON at end of it's run looks like it has good potential. We have some time to figure that out but nice to start seeing things pop up on the models.

 

Once it became clear the models whiffed on that stout west based -NAO setting up for the first week of Jan the thaw was all but a certainty and we would have a quiet period.

As you said, we are now getting through the warm-up and starting to see hints into next week we may have a discrete threat to track soon.

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Took the outdoor Christmas decorations down yesterday. It was nice, everything was dry and could go straight into storage rather than into the garage to dry for two weeks. :lol:

Going forward we have the possible squalls Sunday colonel mentioned, then towards mid month all models agree there are a couple windows for a storm to come together. If I had to say, the pattern probably favors areas east of us, but a lot will depend on the orientation of the ridge out west and if / when any northern stream pieces phase and how far SW the trough digs.

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22 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Took the outdoor Christmas decorations down yesterday. It was nice, everything was dry and could go straight into storage rather than into the garage to dry for two weeks. :lol:

Going forward we have the possible squalls Sunday colonel mentioned, then towards mid month all models agree there are a couple windows for a storm to come together. If I had to say, the pattern probably favors areas east of us, but a lot will depend on the orientation of the ridge out west and if / when any northern stream pieces phase and how far SW the trough digs.

Even though today were good runs for WPa on CMC and EURO, my fear, like you say, is these are late developing and areas south and EC are the winners like on the GFS.

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Difficult to buy into anything right now.  Mid-range modeling has been suspect for a few months.  Long-range is worth even less.  I'm not too worried about individual threats until they close within three-to-five days.

The best we might hope for is a return to the December clipper-heavy pattern.  I think it is possible, if not probable, that the worst of our winter cold is over with, however.  Height anomalies over Canada don't look quite as robustly cold as they were a month ago, and a massive building -EPO coupled with +PNA might reconfigure how cold air gets moved through the CONUS.  A huge ridge out west precludes cold air from coming at us in a westerly fashion and retains a more northern component.  The ridge does create opportunities for storms to ride down the spine and amplify south of us, but the speed of the northern stream combined with a lack of blocking really caps any potential.  Even a big coastal would move in a hurry absent additional variables that aren't yet clear.

The combination is a somewhat typical Nina atmosphere.  Not to say the rest of winter will be warm, only that it is more moderate than what we dealt with previously with quite negative departures.  A February warm-up is always a threat.  If you do believe anything very long-range, the data itself doesn't yet support that outcome.  Cold conditions may be bolstered if the MJO eventually traverses through Phase 7 as currently progged.

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3 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Im here for it, if its going to be above 50 in January it might as well push 70. Im at 65, here, opened up the windows for some fresh air.

Agreed. Cold and dry does nothing but cause my bill to go up. 

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