December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[WeatherGeek2025]

14 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Albany looks like the jackpot. I think this is a north of I84 storm. Hopefully coastal plain can cash in at some point in Dec..

it's too far to know this storm could whiff to the south

[anthonymm]

12 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it's too far to know this storm could whiff to the south

Maybe, but there is pretty much 0 operational support for an OTS solution.

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, anthonymm said:

Maybe, but there is pretty much 0 operational support for an OTS solution.

Ensembles are though. We know the ops have been terrible beyond 3-4 days. Even though I do expect this to miss to the north. Nothing is set in stone 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Maybe, but there is pretty much 0 operational support for an OTS solution.

look at  the GEFS and EPS and Euro AI - strictly going by OPS 5 days out before the next storm even develops and passes is not a good idea

[WeatherGeek2025]

icon is all rain for the coast

 

north of i84 gets heavy snow

[snywx]

16 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

icon is all rain for the coast

 

north of i84 gets heavy snow

Icon pretty much has the snow line cutting Orange County in half aka I-84 

[anthonymm]

14 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

icon is all rain for the coast

 

north of i84 gets heavy snow

It's either ots or heavy wet snow for the deep interior. I95 isnt in the cards at all since we don't have a ridge over the rockies.

[SnowGoose69]

The first storm continuing to gradually become strung out and flatter is leading to the second one being more likely to be a hit.  2-3 days ago I felt the second system was a miss but not so much anymore.  That said, keeping with the theme of recent years and given the flow, go weaker on that one too.  I believe there is a decent chance for the 2nd storm to be snow to rain, even to the coast if everything times out correctly but if it’s too late and the high begins to slide offshore it won’t happen  

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The first storm continuing to gradually become strung out and flatter is leading to the second one being more likely to be a hit.  2-3 days ago I felt the second system was a miss but not so much anymore.  That said, keeping with the theme of recent years and given the flow, go weaker on that one too.  I believe there is a decent chance for the 2nd storm to be snow to rain, even to the coast if everything times out correctly but if it’s too late and the high begins to slide offshore it won’t happen  

Can you please be more specific with the dates - the first storm is this weekends or next Tuesday ? When is the second storm ?

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Can you please be more specific - the first storm is this weekends or next Tuesday ? When is the second storm ?

Yeah first system being the lakes storm which is in essence a glorified FROPA here.  That system over the last 8-10 days has gone from a Midwest cutter to a solid Lakes cutter to a weak lakes low.  This is what mostly led to the failed SER.  That SER shown 10 days ago was a product of that assumed massive cutter.   

[snywx]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Can you please be more specific - the first storm is this weekends or next Tuesday ? When is the second storm ?

I think he’s talking about the Midwest event on Sunday 

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS is going to be all snow for the city! 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS is going to be all snow for the city! 

Faster evolution.  That’s the key here really.  I don’t believe that scenario in early December would remain all snow even if that exact track panned out but the key here really is get that second system to develop as fast behind the first as it can while the high is still in decent position.  

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah first system being the lakes storm which is in essence a glorified FROPA here.  That system over the last 8-10 days has gone from a Midwest cutter to a solid Lakes cutter to a weak lakes low.  This is what mostly led to the failed SER.  That SER shown 10 days ago was a product of that assumed massive cutter.   

the 12Z GFS is moving further south more in line with the previous GEFS everyone starts as snow in fact is snow ice in the metro most of the event

[WeatherGeek2025]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the 12Z GFS is moving further south more in line with the previous GEFS everyone starts as snow in fact is snow ice in the metro most of the event

that pink is heavy wet snow, that doesn't show ice

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

that pink is heavy wet snow, that doesn't show ice

thats even better ! Walt is going to have his work cut out for him trying to figure out how to explain all of this in the storm thread......

[SnowGoose69]

Unfortunately the classic SWFE has become somewhat of a lost thing in recent years much like the clipper and coastal track have seemed to.  I think it’s a product of stale highs due to warming in Canada coupled with systems having a tendency to want to overamp more in that setup vs just remain weak flat waves bumping into highs, I can’t remember the last case of that we had.  We have seen more SWFEs have long duration periods of sleet which 20-30 years ago almost never happened.  They were usually snow to rain 9 out of 10 times 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Unfortunately the classic SWFE has become somewhat of a lost thing in recent years much like the clipper and coastal track have seemed to.  I think it’s a product of stale highs due to warming in Canada coupled with systems having a tendency to want to overamp more in that setup vs just remain weak flat waves bumping into highs, I can’t remember the last case of that we had.  We have seen more SWFEs have long duration periods of sleet which 20-30 years ago almost never happened.  They were usually snow to rain 9 out of 10 times 

would this be considered a SWFE or a Miller A Nor'easter?

[WeatherGeek2025]

canadian looks colder than 0z run but much warmer than GFS! 

[snywx]

Ukmet has a similar look now. Snow to rain for the city, heavy snow interior 

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Unfortunately the classic SWFE has become somewhat of a lost thing in recent years much like the clipper and coastal track have seemed to.  I think it’s a product of stale highs due to warming in Canada coupled with systems having a tendency to want to overamp more in that setup vs just remain weak flat waves bumping into highs, I can’t remember the last case of that we had.  We have seen more SWFEs have long duration periods of sleet which 20-30 years ago almost never happened.  They were usually snow to rain 9 out of 10 times 

May take a few years but they will be back. 

[EastonSN+]

JUST looking at the CMC and GFS model runs, this does have a 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 feel to it. If so this could be a big winter for the 84 corridor (or at least December).

[anthonymm]

39 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS is going to be all snow for the city! 

Not a snowball's chance in hell. Best possible outcome for central park is a couple slushy inches---> rain.

[WeatherGeek2025]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

May take a few years but they will be back. 

don't those suck for our area, usually 3-5 inches and than either turns into rain and or icy in suburbs. Never an all snow event

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, anthonymm said:

Not a snowball's chance in hell. Best possible outcome for central park is a couple slushy inches---> rain.

whiffing is still on the table sir

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Not a snowball's chance in hell. Best possible outcome for central park is a couple slushy inches---> rain.

good luck trying to figure this out - like I have been saying the GEFS,EPS and Euro AI never had an amped up system to begin with this is still 5 days away there will be more changes in the models,,,,,,,,,,,,

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

don't those suck for our area, usually 3-5 inches and than either turns into rain and or icy in suburbs. Never an all snow event

Correct. For me I still like watching the approaching rain/snow line and seeing how much accumulation we get before we flip. Sometimes up to 8 before a flip to drizzle occurs.

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

don't those suck for our area, usually 3-5 inches and than either turns into rain and or icy in suburbs. Never an all snow event

Usually anything from like 1-3 to 3-5 is most common.  Some rare instances where 6-7 has occurred for the coast like February 2008 November 2018 December 1990 but those usually consist of one of two scenarios.  Weak waves vs amping lows or the system approaches more from down in the Carolinas vs the Tennessee or Ohio Valley.  

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Not a snowball's chance in hell. Best possible outcome for central park is a couple slushy inches---> rain.

Most likely outcome yes. Actually most likely is little to no accumulation or all rain but too early to say what the best possible outcome is

[MJO812]

East