December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[jaxjagman]

Probably better off just to reshuffle the patten and see what happens and put the MJO back into the Maritime once again.

I always wondered myself the past several days of what lag effects the extreme -PDO has to do with the atmospheric patterns, back into the July and August,you havent seen these values ever since the early 1850's,just because you see these daily values each day rise and fall I.E., WPO,that's like saying the ENSO went positive today so the pattern is going to flip the next day from Nina to Nino it dont work that way,plus we are talking about the largest body of water on earth,the Pacific

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

[Golf757075]

52 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Probably better off just to reshuffle the patten and see what happens and put the MJO back into the Maritime once again.

I always wondered myself the past several days of what lag effects the extreme -PDO has to do with the atmospheric patterns, back into the July and August,you havent seen these values ever since the early 1850's,just because you see these daily values each day rise and fall I.E., WPO,that's like saying the ENSO went positive today so the pattern is going to flip the next day from Nina to Nino it dont work that way,plus we are talking about the largest body of water on earth,the Pacific

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

In regards to the PDO, imo, the WCS has a better depiction of it in real time. The CPC just does it on a monthly basis. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/. 

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies are full bore winter in January.  They have increasingly BN temps.  That LR ext ensemble and the GEPS have broken towards cold today.  We were waiting for ensembles to track....some good trends.  In the case of the Euro Weeklies...great trends.  95-96(lite) and some 84-85 vibes as you all noted earlier in the thread.  

[Daniel Boone]

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies are full bore winter in January.  They have increasingly BN temps.  That LR ext ensemble and the GEPS have broken towards cold today.  We were waiting for ensembles to track....some good trends.  In the case of the Euro Weeklies...great trends.  95-96(lite) and some 84-85 vibes as you all noted earlier in the thread.  

Probably the increased likelihood of a Strong Block and bridge over along with possibly MJO becoming favorable would be my wag what's tipping them. It'll take a bit before my confidence builds. Main thing the next few days imo is to watch the progression of the NAO. Then that of the AR. 

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Golf757075 said:

In regards to the PDO, imo, the WCS has a better depiction of it in real time. The CPC just does it on a monthly basis. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/. 

Yeah but you can use Cyclonic for free,that sight is more or less click bait,open my wallet

 

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

[Carvers Gap]

56 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Probably the increased likelihood of a Strong Block and bridge over along with possibly MJO becoming favorable would be my wag what's tipping them. It'll take a bit before my confidence builds. Main thing the next few days imo is to watch the progression of the NAO. Then that of the AR. 

I am mainly confident, because recent Nina climatology suggests there will be 10-14 days of very cold temps sometime between week 2-4 of January.  Plus, this seems to be one of those years where warm-ups get shortened as they draw closer.  We are in the "warm-up" which was originally modeled to be anomalous.  This morning, I was running in 30+mph winds with wind chills in the 20s.  If the more aggressive models are correct, the warm-up may be confined to Dec 24-28th.  Might be the most talked about warm-up ever to only amount to about 120 hours of AN temps.  LOL.  I hope that is what happens!!!  I am pulling for the NAO to occur, because I am tired of talking about the MJO (no offense meant to those who like it...it is effective).  

So far, this has fit Nina climatology like a glove....

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

That's what we talked about and what it's going to take to spoil the warm pattern early.  Still not sold it'll happen though. If it doesn't, that massive nina HP and freaking GOA low are Staples for awhile. 

I think models are in a huge state of flux right now.  They were wrong about the Baja lows.  They are wrong about over-doing too many NW Pac lows.  They could be overdoing the Aleutian and/or NAO and/or AO HL blocking.  We have seen modeling miss on HL blocking at exactly this time of year, but we have seen it score.  Just too early to tell.

[Golf757075]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies are full bore winter in January.  They have increasingly BN temps.  That LR ext ensemble and the GEPS have broken towards cold today.  We were waiting for ensembles to track....some good trends.  In the case of the Euro Weeklies...great trends.  95-96(lite) and some 84-85 vibes as you all noted earlier in the thread.  

What will build my confidence is when the epo turns negative, which may take some time but we will go from there. An ao/nao being negative can trump an awful pacific sometimes.

[Golf757075]

Just eye candy, but impressive.

[Matthew70]

13 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

What will build my confidence is when the epo turns negative, which may take some time but we will go from there. An ao/nao being negative can trump an awful pacific sometimes.

What I’ve always seen is a -AO &         -NAO always trump a -PNA.  EPO is not as big of player when the other two are -.

[Matthew70]

I will say that storm front yesterday was very impressive with the thunder and the driving rains.  That wind was brutal. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Someone posted on southernwx that the extended Euro control showed a pretty good way out of this mess. I see Golfman posted the snow map above, I can throw up some gifs of the 500mb anomalies and MSLPs if there is interest. 

[Golf757075]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Someone posted on southernwx that the extended Euro control showed a pretty good way out of this mess. I see Golfman posted the snow map above, I can throw up some gifs of the 500mb anomalies and MSLPs if there is interest. 

Maybe you can post the euro ext mean on snow, if available. I posted only the control run, not the mean

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

What I’ve always seen is a -AO &         -NAO always trump a -PNA.  EPO is not as big of player when the other two are -.

Depends on strength of each really. Location of NAO as well. 

[Golf757075]

This is from bamwx fwiw. Maybe a change in the pacific. We shall see

[Carvers Gap]

That control @Holston_River_Rambler.  Delta from high to low...9!  The good thing is the mean is negative.  I actually favor the control run - wild swings likely.  AO looks pretty much the same.  This has gotta be that SSW moving things around.  This also fits QBO climatology which favors HL blocking.  Probably all of that is connected in some way.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here be ye olden control:

 

 

 

MrGolfman, here ye go, the weeklies mean:

[Golf757075]

40 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That control @Holston_River_Rambler.  Delta from high to low...9!  The good thing is the mean is negative.  I actually favor the control run - wild swings likely.  AO looks pretty much the same.  This has gotta be that SSW moving things around.  This also fits QBO climatology which favors HL blocking.  Probably all of that is connected in some way.

That image i posted earlier would be a TOTAL game changer if it happens. Still preliminary of course.

[jaxjagman]

I dunno,but the (EAWM,East Asian Winter Monsoon should be coming up which could possibly shift the HP into Siberia,with troughs extending into East Asia into the Pac,im just gonna use the EPS I.E,this could seemingly change the pattern as we get into the New Year,for how long,really have no clue

[Carvers Gap]

Some good runs overnight.  The ensemble means are washed out at range which is understandable, but their individual members have it.  There are 4-5 warm scenarios per suite which are skewing the greater number of cold members.  We saw the same things happened with recent cold fronts....ensembles couldn't see them in the mean.  The deterministic runs of the Euro, GFS(6z and 12z), and CMC have strong NAO solutions - some extreme which I doubt verify.  That said...any model without the NAO right now can't be discounted, but the ones with it....are more likely to have correct solutions.  

[*Flash*]

Curious...has our area ever done well with a strong PV before? Seems the -NAO may not be enough based on what JC is suggesting here...

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Wonder which PV he's talking about in the above? Stratospheric or tropospheric? #PolarVortex doesn't make it clear. It's almost as if he's looking for clicks or something. 

A strengthening -NAO can put pressure on the SPV and the TPV. Example from 0z Euro:

 

I chose 30mb because that pressure level is lower and closer to where the potential -NAO is forming. 

The same processes that are helping to create the -NAO on the recent deterministic runs are also fluxing heat poleward at the tropopause.

500mb:

Tropopause: 

 

 

Pac jet doesn't look terrible to me in deterministic progs. Right now, yeah, that's not good:

We never really want to see it all the way across the Pac. But going forward, looks buckly to me.

 

Of course that and anything can and will change. I'm encouraged this AM by the OPs finding the -NAO again and that wavy pac jet look. I seen years where that jet was just a fire hose all the way across the Pac in to California. 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Curious...has our area ever done well with a strong PV before? Seems the -NAO may not be enough based on what JC is suggesting here...

Strong SPV during cold and snow Nashville since 79:

-Jans of 25, 22, 16, 00, 96, 84…so, 6 of 14 cold and snowy Jans had strong SPV (00 cold/snow last half of Jan)

-Feb of 96

Strong Jan SPV has been progged by Euro Weeklies, which have and usually do well:

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Wonder which PV he's talking about in the above? Stratospheric or tropospheric? #PolarVortex doesn't make it clear. It's almost as if he's looking for clicks or something. 

A strengthening -NAO can put pressure on the SPV and the TPV. Example from 0z Euro:

 

I chose 30mb because that pressure level is lower and closer to where the potential -NAO is forming. 

The same processes that are helping to create the -NAO on the recent deterministic runs are also fluxing heat poleward at the tropopause.

500mb:

Tropopause: 

 

 

Pac jet doesn't look terrible to me in deterministic progs. Right now, yeah, that's not good:

We never really want to see it all the way across the Pac. But going forward, looks buckly to me.

 

Of course that and anything can and will change. I'm encouraged this AM by the OPs finding the -NAO again and that wavy pac jet look. I seen years where that jet was just a fire hose all the way across the Pac in to California. 

 

 

 

 

Good post man !

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Curious...has our area ever done well with a strong PV before? Seems the -NAO may not be enough based on what JC is suggesting here...

Yeah, he's pretty concerned. 

[jaxjagman]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Strong SPV during cold and snow Nashville since 79:

-Jans of 25, 22, 16, 00, 96, 84…so, 6 of 14 cold and snowy Jans had strong SPV (00 cold/snow last half of Jan)

-Feb of 96

Strong Jan SPV has been progged by Euro Weeklies, which have and usually do well:

Do you know off hand what years those were with a EQBO,i know last Jan was a WQBO?

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Do you know off hand what years those were with a EQBO?

22, 96, 84

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Wonder which PV he's talking about in the above? Stratospheric or tropospheric? #PolarVortex doesn't make it clear. It's almost as if he's looking for clicks or something. 

A strengthening -NAO can put pressure on the SPV and the TPV. Example from 0z Euro:

 

I chose 30mb because that pressure level is lower and closer to where the potential -NAO is forming. 

The same processes that are helping to create the -NAO on the recent deterministic runs are also fluxing heat poleward at the tropopause.

500mb:

Tropopause: 

 

 

Pac jet doesn't look terrible to me in deterministic progs. Right now, yeah, that's not good:

We never really want to see it all the way across the Pac. But going forward, looks buckly to me.

 

Of course that and anything can and will change. I'm encouraged this AM by the OPs finding the -NAO again and that wavy pac jet look. I seen years where that jet was just a fire hose all the way across the Pac in to California. 

 

 

 

 

Like most people that own pay sites,they just are click baits so you subscribe

[jaxjagman]

The oceans the last few weeks has been pretty much Chaotic from Kelvin Waves and the Rossby Wave Train,no end in site,why you see the RMMS  do all this flip flopping sorta speaking

[Carvers Gap]

Take GaWx's analogs and run with them.   Great information.  95-96(lite) sure looks reasonable to me.

The 12z deterministic suite had great trends with the exception of the GFS.  Ensembles are getting hugely skewed by just a few warm members - I bet...haven't looked for 12z, but they were overnight for sure.

The NAO looks like a player.  I kind of play by a couple of rules with the NAO.  Sometimes modeling overdoes the NAO.  Modeling will often try to break it down too quickly once it breaks down.  With that ridge in the Aleutians....we take the NAO regardless of whether we don't get as cold as Europe.  It could hook into the SE ridge for a time, but that is not a stable pattern with subtropical air being pumped into Greenland.  A mature NAO pattern often yields big storms.  Without the Pac, I wouldn't call that a big storm pattern, but we could back our way into some snow w/ that look.

I think this is QBO and SSW(in concert) driven.  

This will be chaotic for a few more days - maybe very chaotic from run to run within the same model.  Lots of cold air running around.  We need one, good cutter.