December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[jaxjagman]

Probably better off just to reshuffle the patten and see what happens and put the MJO back into the Maritime once again.

I always wondered myself the past several days of what lag effects the extreme -PDO has to do with the atmospheric patterns, back into the July and August,you havent seen these values ever since the early 1850's,just because you see these daily values each day rise and fall I.E., WPO,that's like saying the ENSO went positive today so the pattern is going to flip the next day from Nina to Nino it dont work that way,plus we are talking about the largest body of water on earth,the Pacific

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

[Golf757075]

52 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Probably better off just to reshuffle the patten and see what happens and put the MJO back into the Maritime once again.

I always wondered myself the past several days of what lag effects the extreme -PDO has to do with the atmospheric patterns, back into the July and August,you havent seen these values ever since the early 1850's,just because you see these daily values each day rise and fall I.E., WPO,that's like saying the ENSO went positive today so the pattern is going to flip the next day from Nina to Nino it dont work that way,plus we are talking about the largest body of water on earth,the Pacific

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

In regards to the PDO, imo, the WCS has a better depiction of it in real time. The CPC just does it on a monthly basis. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/. 

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies are full bore winter in January.  They have increasingly BN temps.  That LR ext ensemble and the GEPS have broken towards cold today.  We were waiting for ensembles to track....some good trends.  In the case of the Euro Weeklies...great trends.  95-96(lite) and some 84-85 vibes as you all noted earlier in the thread.  

[Daniel Boone]

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies are full bore winter in January.  They have increasingly BN temps.  That LR ext ensemble and the GEPS have broken towards cold today.  We were waiting for ensembles to track....some good trends.  In the case of the Euro Weeklies...great trends.  95-96(lite) and some 84-85 vibes as you all noted earlier in the thread.  

Probably the increased likelihood of a Strong Block and bridge over along with possibly MJO becoming favorable would be my wag what's tipping them. It'll take a bit before my confidence builds. Main thing the next few days imo is to watch the progression of the NAO. Then that of the AR. 

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Golf757075 said:

In regards to the PDO, imo, the WCS has a better depiction of it in real time. The CPC just does it on a monthly basis. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/. 

Yeah but you can use Cyclonic for free,that sight is more or less click bait,open my wallet

 

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

[Carvers Gap]

56 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Probably the increased likelihood of a Strong Block and bridge over along with possibly MJO becoming favorable would be my wag what's tipping them. It'll take a bit before my confidence builds. Main thing the next few days imo is to watch the progression of the NAO. Then that of the AR. 

I am mainly confident, because recent Nina climatology suggests there will be 10-14 days of very cold temps sometime between week 2-4 of January.  Plus, this seems to be one of those years where warm-ups get shortened as they draw closer.  We are in the "warm-up" which was originally modeled to be anomalous.  This morning, I was running in 30+mph winds with wind chills in the 20s.  If the more aggressive models are correct, the warm-up may be confined to Dec 24-28th.  Might be the most talked about warm-up ever to only amount to about 120 hours of AN temps.  LOL.  I hope that is what happens!!!  I am pulling for the NAO to occur, because I am tired of talking about the MJO (no offense meant to those who like it...it is effective).  

So far, this has fit Nina climatology like a glove....

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

That's what we talked about and what it's going to take to spoil the warm pattern early.  Still not sold it'll happen though. If it doesn't, that massive nina HP and freaking GOA low are Staples for awhile. 

I think models are in a huge state of flux right now.  They were wrong about the Baja lows.  They are wrong about over-doing too many NW Pac lows.  They could be overdoing the Aleutian and/or NAO and/or AO HL blocking.  We have seen modeling miss on HL blocking at exactly this time of year, but we have seen it score.  Just too early to tell.

[Golf757075]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies are full bore winter in January.  They have increasingly BN temps.  That LR ext ensemble and the GEPS have broken towards cold today.  We were waiting for ensembles to track....some good trends.  In the case of the Euro Weeklies...great trends.  95-96(lite) and some 84-85 vibes as you all noted earlier in the thread.  

What will build my confidence is when the epo turns negative, which may take some time but we will go from there. An ao/nao being negative can trump an awful pacific sometimes.

[Golf757075]

Just eye candy, but impressive.

[Matthew70]

13 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

What will build my confidence is when the epo turns negative, which may take some time but we will go from there. An ao/nao being negative can trump an awful pacific sometimes.

What I’ve always seen is a -AO &         -NAO always trump a -PNA.  EPO is not as big of player when the other two are -.

[Matthew70]

I will say that storm front yesterday was very impressive with the thunder and the driving rains.  That wind was brutal. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Someone posted on southernwx that the extended Euro control showed a pretty good way out of this mess. I see Golfman posted the snow map above, I can throw up some gifs of the 500mb anomalies and MSLPs if there is interest.