December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[jaxjagman]

Probably better off just to reshuffle the patten and see what happens and put the MJO back into the Maritime once again.

I always wondered myself the past several days of what lag effects the extreme -PDO has to do with the atmospheric patterns, back into the July and August,you havent seen these values ever since the early 1850's,just because you see these daily values each day rise and fall I.E., WPO,that's like saying the ENSO went positive today so the pattern is going to flip the next day from Nina to Nino it dont work that way,plus we are talking about the largest body of water on earth,the Pacific

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

[Golf757075]

52 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Probably better off just to reshuffle the patten and see what happens and put the MJO back into the Maritime once again.

I always wondered myself the past several days of what lag effects the extreme -PDO has to do with the atmospheric patterns, back into the July and August,you havent seen these values ever since the early 1850's,just because you see these daily values each day rise and fall I.E., WPO,that's like saying the ENSO went positive today so the pattern is going to flip the next day from Nina to Nino it dont work that way,plus we are talking about the largest body of water on earth,the Pacific

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

In regards to the PDO, imo, the WCS has a better depiction of it in real time. The CPC just does it on a monthly basis. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/. 

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies are full bore winter in January.  They have increasingly BN temps.  That LR ext ensemble and the GEPS have broken towards cold today.  We were waiting for ensembles to track....some good trends.  In the case of the Euro Weeklies...great trends.  95-96(lite) and some 84-85 vibes as you all noted earlier in the thread.  

[Daniel Boone]

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies are full bore winter in January.  They have increasingly BN temps.  That LR ext ensemble and the GEPS have broken towards cold today.  We were waiting for ensembles to track....some good trends.  In the case of the Euro Weeklies...great trends.  95-96(lite) and some 84-85 vibes as you all noted earlier in the thread.  

Probably the increased likelihood of a Strong Block and bridge over along with possibly MJO becoming favorable would be my wag what's tipping them. It'll take a bit before my confidence builds. Main thing the next few days imo is to watch the progression of the NAO. Then that of the AR.