NNE Cold Season Thread 2025-2026

[Boston Bulldog]

Snow is back in the forecast for the Green Mountain spine, and the BTV AFD is asking the questions we are all thinking... it appears as though cold season is nearly upon us! Looking forward to the incoming stake photos tomorrow morning, may this winter be as cold as the last!

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and blustery conditions will prevail for most of this upcoming
weekend with occasional valley rain and mountain snow showers. A
light slushy snow accumulation is possible above 1500 feet by
Saturday morning, as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to near
40. Westerly winds will gust at 30 to 45 mph at times overnight,
before slowly weakening on Saturday. Warmer and drier weather
returns by early next week, as temperatures climb back into the 50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 247 PM EDT Friday...Updated to remove equipment section as
TYX radar is back in service.

A cool, blustery and showery evening is on tap for Halloween
activities. Sfc analysis places an impressive 978mb low pres
just east of Sherbrooke with deep/vertically stacked system
slowly moving northeast. Storm total rainfall has been 1.72"
here at BTV thru 2:45 PM, just imagine if it were colder. This
closed cyclonic circulation wl produce a prolonged upslope
precip event acrs our mtns thru at least Sat morning, before
drier air develops by Sat aftn and precip slowly dissipates. The
highest pops near 100% and greatest qpf wl be focused over the
northern Dacks and central-northern Greens, with much less in
favorable downslope areas of the CT River Valley and parts of
the western CPV.

Whiteface summit temp already down to 30F with flakes flying
and little Whiteface at 3000 feet is 33F, would expect snow
level near SLK/Lake Placid by 00z, as progged 925mb temps fall
below 0C. For the Green, snow levels start near summit level
this aftn, but falls to 3000 feet by 00z and near 1500 feet
around midnight. 925mb temps hover btwn -1C and -3C, so a slushy
snow accumulation is possible on grassy surfaces down to 1500
feet or so by morning. Expecting 1 to 3 inches btwn 1800 and
3000 feet, 2 to 4 inches between 3000 and 4000 feet and 4 to 6
inches at summit level of both the Greens and Dacks by Sat aftn.
Will there be enough for the rock skis and boards by midday
Saturday?

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Snow is back in the forecast for the Green Mountain spine, and the BTV AFD is asking the questions we are all thinking... it appears as though cold season is nearly upon us! Looking forward to the incoming stake photos tomorrow morning, may this winter be as cold as the last!

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and blustery conditions will prevail for most of this upcoming
weekend with occasional valley rain and mountain snow showers. A
light slushy snow accumulation is possible above 1500 feet by
Saturday morning, as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to near
40. Westerly winds will gust at 30 to 45 mph at times overnight,
before slowly weakening on Saturday. Warmer and drier weather
returns by early next week, as temperatures climb back into the 50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 247 PM EDT Friday...Updated to remove equipment section as
TYX radar is back in service.

A cool, blustery and showery evening is on tap for Halloween
activities. Sfc analysis places an impressive 978mb low pres
just east of Sherbrooke with deep/vertically stacked system
slowly moving northeast. Storm total rainfall has been 1.72"
here at BTV thru 2:45 PM, just imagine if it were colder. This
closed cyclonic circulation wl produce a prolonged upslope
precip event acrs our mtns thru at least Sat morning, before
drier air develops by Sat aftn and precip slowly dissipates. The
highest pops near 100% and greatest qpf wl be focused over the
northern Dacks and central-northern Greens, with much less in
favorable downslope areas of the CT River Valley and parts of
the western CPV.

Whiteface summit temp already down to 30F with flakes flying
and little Whiteface at 3000 feet is 33F, would expect snow
level near SLK/Lake Placid by 00z, as progged 925mb temps fall
below 0C. For the Green, snow levels start near summit level
this aftn, but falls to 3000 feet by 00z and near 1500 feet
around midnight. 925mb temps hover btwn -1C and -3C, so a slushy
snow accumulation is possible on grassy surfaces down to 1500
feet or so by morning. Expecting 1 to 3 inches btwn 1800 and
3000 feet, 2 to 4 inches between 3000 and 4000 feet and 4 to 6
inches at summit level of both the Greens and Dacks by Sat aftn.
Will there be enough for the rock skis and boards by midday
Saturday?

Now that Melissa is gone I’ve moved from tropical to late fall mode. With one of my locations now being SLK I’d love to post here too representing the western portion of the BTV NWS area, if y’all will have me. 

[powderfreak]

If only it was colder… it has been pounding precip all afternoon and just keeps going.

Prolific snow maker even into the low lands if like 5C colder today.

[SJonesWX]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Now that Melissa is gone I’ve moved from tropical to late fall mode. With one of my locations now being SLK I’d love to post here too representing the western portion of the BTV NWS area, if y’all will have me. 

You are welcome to post here, but beware. If you post pics of snow while SE Mass is getting rain or has bare ground, @CoastalWx might come for you.

[powderfreak]

SLK over to -SN.

METAR KSLK 010020Z AUTO 24012G17KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC014 01/M01 A2922 RMK AO2 P0000 T00061006

[powderfreak]

After hours of white rain and mangled flakes at 3,000ft... it's finally starting to accumulate.  Looks like we have until 4-5am before it tapers off.

My mtn forecast was for 2-5" at that location so we'll see.  I think we can get 2+... 4-5" will be tough on that elevated snowboard.  It's gusting 40-50mph up there and moving more sideways than landing on the platform, too. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

SLK over to -SN.

METAR KSLK 010020Z AUTO 24012G17KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC014 01/M01 A2922 RMK AO2 P0000 T00061006

My wife reports a car topper. We're on the board, people!

33.3 at WXW2.

[powderfreak]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My wife reports a car topper. We're on the board, people!

33.3 at WXW2.

A different world from CT.  A completely different world being at that elevation, but in a valley surrounded by big terrain too.  Elevational snows and radiational cold mins combined.

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A different world from CT.  A completely different world being at that elevation, but in a valley surrounded by big terrain too.  Elevational snows and radiational cold mins combined.

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

After hours of white rain and mangled flakes at 3,000ft... it's finally starting to accumulate.  Looks like we have until 4-5am before it tapers off. My mtn forecast was for 2-5" at that location so we'll see. 

Well, if the NNE Cold Season thread is back, then we really must be moving into snow season.

I know we had those first snows back about a week ago, but it’s been fun to see some of the comments from the BTV NWS crew as this next event has approached. You could really feel some of the “pro snow” mentality in yesterday’s discussion:

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

216 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Trends have been our friend if you are looking for snowfall with changeover occurring in the central/northern Greens btwn 8 PM and 11 PM Friday evening. Snow level look to drop to around 1000 feet by 12z Sat, as progged 925mb temps drop btwn -2C and -3C, while progged 850mb temps are in the -3C to -5C. The ingredients look favorable for a period of upslope rain and snow showers on Friday night with good 850 to 700mb rh >80%, strong 850mb winds of 35 to 45 knots, and moderately strong caa. This wl help to enhance precip with highest pops/qpf acrs the favorable upslope areas of northern Dacks and central/northern Greens. Snow accumulations range from dusting to 2 inches btwn 1000 and 2000 feet and 1 to 3 inches btwn 2000 and 3500 feet and up to 4 or 5 inches above 3500 feet by mid morning Sat. I have tried to highlight this thinking in the latest storm total snow grids. Did utilize the NAM3KM hourly temps in grids to show cooler air moving into the area faster, especially acrs the higher trrn on Friday evening.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

As of 216 PM EDT Thursday...Upslope rain and snow showers wl slowly taper off on Sat with blustery and chilly conditions prevailing. Highs generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s, except only upper 20s summits. Could we see the guns fire atop Killington this weekend? Otherwise a general drying trend is anticipated by Sat night with lows back in the lower 20s to mid 30s.

 

Actually, after a really pleasant stretch of fall through much of September and October, it looks like we’ve had quite a shift in the level of weather activity in this last third of the month. Here at our site there’s been rain on 10 out of the last 12 days, and it pushed us past 5 inches of liquid for October. That’s still a bit below average, but it’s definitely a shift from earlier in the fall. The pattern looks like it continues to be active well into November. If one includes this current storm, a quick run through the GFS and other medium-range models out through mid-month shows 7 to 8 systems coming through the area, and all of them have the potential to offer some snow. It’s not especially cold for November, but those 850 mb temperatures spend plenty of time at or below 32 F. It looks like a lot of systems scooting through in the northern stream, and we know what that means around here.

 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Lake Placid Village at the Olympic Complex is snowy.

[J.Spin]

From the Bolton Valley Main Base Live Cam view this morning, it looks like they picked up an inch or two around the 2,100’ elevation from this storm. The summit cam looks like it’s covered in snow, so no views from up there yet.

[J.Spin]

There’s nothing visible on the Bolton Valley Vista Peak Cam yet because it’s still covered in snow, but at a roughly equivalent elevation of 3,125’ at Sugarbush, it looks like about 5 inches of accumulation on the Allyn’s Lodge Snow Stake Cam. In line with what PF was saying with respect to the winds, there’s actually less accumulation on the Heaven’s Gate Snow Stake Cam at 3,900’.

[powderfreak]

Ended with 5” at 3,200ft cam.

Looked more like 7” up at 3,700ft or ground based.

[WxWatcher007]

Seems like it was barely measurable at WXW2, but .1” puts me on the board and there are no complaints about that. 

[powderfreak]

The densest 3-7” ever.  Has to be like 5:1 ratios.  Feels like sand.  So tightly packed together.

[powderfreak]

12 hours ago, J.Spin said:

From the Bolton Valley Main Base Live Cam view this morning, it looks like they picked up an inch or two around the 2,100’ elevation from this storm. The summit cam looks like it’s covered in snow, so no views from up there yet.

Love this, the guy with the bike.  That's the most Bolton Valley thing ever.

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Love this, the guy with the bike.  That's the most Bolton Valley thing ever.

Indeed – he was there getting pictures of his bike in the snow when I was checking the cam for accumulations this morning, so I had to grab a still with him in it. It’s such a great Vermont change of seasons vibe, and you can’t help but imagine him in that pose standing there going “Huh.” It’s so on point though – I literary changed out my bike rack for my ski rack on the car today before I headed up to the hill.

[J.Spin]

As forecast, the snow levels with this most recent storm began to drop yesterday evening, and the higher elevations picked up some decent snow accumulations by morning. The views from Bolton’s Base Lodge Webcam seemed to suggest just an inch or two of accumulation at 2,000’, and their Vista Summit Webcam was covered in snow, but the Allyn’s Lodge Snow Stake Cam at Sugarbush suggested that there were some decent accumulations around 3,000’. So, I decided to head up to Bolton Valley to at least get in a hike in the snow and check out the actual accumulations in person. The snow levels with this storm definitely didn’t make it down to the lower valleys, and even the local 2,000’ peaks surrounding the Winooski Valley in this area didn’t seem to have any visible accumulations.

Those observations left me wondering just how high the snow levels had been, but it was clear as I ascended the Bolton Valley Access Road that the spine of the Greens had done better than some of the other surrounding areas. On my ascent toward Bolton Valley, I saw the first traces of snow around 1,200’, and up at the main base at 2,000’, accumulations were definitely more substantial than what the webcam had suggested. There was plenty of wind with this storm, and while exposed areas may have only accumulated an inch or two of snow, areas out of the wind held 3 to 4 inches of dense coverage.

I started hiking the Wilderness Uphill Route with my skis on my pack, but within a couple of minutes I pulled out my skins and started skinning. It was clear that there was more than enough coverage to be skinning instead of walking if you wanted to, and there was a skin track in place as well. Accumulations increased all the way up to near the 3,000’ elevation range, but much like what the Sugarbush webcams had shown, where the 3,125’ stake had 5 inches of snow and the 3,900’ stake showed less than an inch of snow, accumulations sort of fell off as you hit the ridgelines above 3,000’. It must have been those winds – they really pounded and scoured the upper elevations relative to those middle elevations.

Here's the snow accumulations profile I observed today in the Bolton Valley area during my tour in the midday period:

1,000’: 0”

1,200: T”

1,500’: T-1”

2,000’: 1-4”

2,500’: 4-6”

3,000’: 7-11”

The forecast today suggested that at above 2,000’ the temperature was never going to go above freezing, and I’d say that’s what I observed. The temperature at 2,000’ was right around freezing and the snow there was a bit denser and softer, then in the middle elevations it was denser and colder with some upside-down consistency, and them up around 3,000’ the temperatures were well below freezing and the snow was notably drier. It was still on the denser side, but it didn’t have that upside-down feeling of the middle elevations and turns were easier.

When I finished my ski tour and got back to my car, I saw that I’d missed a call from my younger son, so I called him back and he said that he and his crew from UVM were just at the base of the access road on their way up. So, I hung out for a bit, met them when they arrived at the base, and gave them the beta on everything I’d found on my tour. They subsequently had quite a fun tour of their own based on the video footage I saw later when they swung by the house, so it was great to see that everyone had a safe outing, and they kicked off their ski season with style!