MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[MoWeatherguy]

From what I can tell it looks like most models have seen a slight uptick in overall QPF at 0z. Good sign. That warm nose will be the wildcard for most of the Arkansas crowd.

[andyhb]

The Euro/EPS really do seem to want to lay the smackdown on Oklahoma. 60-80% chance of a foot or more at 10:1 ratios on the 00z run.

Reminder that the greatest snowfall in OKC's history is GHD 2011 with ~14", so we're talking easily in historic territory if most of this stays snow/avoiding dryslots/etc.

[stormdragonwx]

Now that we are in the final 24 hours, I have to step back and be objective here, I think the models don't handle the warm air layer well. I have a weird feeling the WAA might be stronger than indicated causing a lot of the snow to become sleet as I remember this happening with one of our big winter storms just last year after the models went nuts with 12+ beforehand. Likely this will be an issue during the first wave until the cold air layer deepens. Especially areas further south and east of US60 and I-35. Might be best to take these Kuchera totals and half them. With that being said the QPF is still holding steady if not increasing. Many may still see close to a foot of snow. Just my two cents. 

[rockchalk83]

Feels like Lucy pulled the football back on us in S KS overnight. We went from sharing in the big totals with you guys to the southeast, to having 6-8 inches. Hoping for a slight northward trend, but I think the models finally have a good grasp on the Arctic air and track of the second wave, so it probably won't happen. 

Bummer.

[The Ole Bucket]

The 12z long-range HRRR is a thing of beauty. Would pay big bucks for this to verify, unlikely as that is

 

[RocketWX]

3 hours ago, rockchalk83 said:

Feels like Lucy pulled the football back on us in S KS overnight. We went from sharing in the big totals with you guys to the southeast, to having 6-8 inches. Hoping for a slight northward trend, but I think the models finally have a good grasp on the Arctic air and track of the second wave, so it probably won't happen. 

Bummer.

This was my concern for us. Getting in on the first wave but missing the second. Needed both to get the big totals. 

[StormChazer]

Hard to be upset about this a handful of hours before it starts.

[MUWX]

Its probably too late in the game to really be looking into global models, but it is interesting to me that the UKMET has pretty much completely folded and now has a solution very similar to the GFS. Last night the UKMet had .5" all the way to KC and now it barely gets it to I44. Canadian is pretty similar. It wasnt as far north as the UKMet initially, but they are both settling on I-44 being the cut off. HRRR is even drier, first round might be a major flop in SW MO.

[MoWeatherguy]

6 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Its probably too late in the game to really be looking into global models, but it is interesting to me that the UKMET has pretty much completely folded and now has a solution very similar to the GFS. Last night the UKMet had .5" all the way to KC and now it barely gets it to I44. Canadian is pretty similar. It wasnt as far north as the UKMet initially, but they are both settling on I-44 being the cut off. HRRR is even drier, first round might be a major flop in SW MO.

It does appear the globals are all showing a pretty sharp cutoff around and just north of 44.  The heaviest precip zones appear to be locking in on E and NE OK, all of NW AR, and far S MO.  If the upper temp profiles hold just right this entire area should get slammed.

[JoMo]

17 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Its probably too late in the game to really be looking into global models, but it is interesting to me that the UKMET has pretty much completely folded and now has a solution very similar to the GFS. Last night the UKMet had .5" all the way to KC and now it barely gets it to I44. Canadian is pretty similar. It wasnt as far north as the UKMet initially, but they are both settling on I-44 being the cut off. HRRR is even drier, first round might be a major flop in SW MO.

I think the Canadian was the first one with the I-44 south look and has also had lesser amounts days ago. 

[stormdragonwx]

If Fort Smith got 26" as the 12z GFS Kuchera indicated, I wonder if that would be a Jan record for them if not all time.

[ouamber]

What liquid ratio does a Kuchera use? Is it 15-1 or 20-1?

 

[RocketWX]

Round 1 may be getting an early start with snow already being reported in Central KS. 

[MUWX]

1 minute ago, ouamber said:

What liquid ratio does a Kuchera use? Is it 15-1 or 20-1?

 

Fairly sure its an estimated ratio based on the thermal profile, but not confident. Historically its pretty over done, but its a little more accurate in a super cold environment than 10-1 is. 

[JoMo]

3 minutes ago, ouamber said:

What liquid ratio does a Kuchera use? Is it 15-1 or 20-1?

 

Depends on how cold the lower atmosphere profile is. Most models have the calculations built in, but it does sometimes overestimate. 

[stormdragonwx]

Whats insane is every convective short range hi-res model has 12-20+ on the snow totals. Not sure I have ever seen that before.

Not sure how Snow Depth is calculated but 06z RRFS-A wants to murder the 412 corridor with nearly 3 feet of snow this morning.

[MUWX]

2 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Whats insane is every convective short range hi-res model has 12-20+ on the snow totals. Not sure I have ever seen that before.

Not sure how Snow Depth is calculated but 06z RRFS-A wants to murder the 412 corridor with nearly 3 feet of snow this morning.

I am not real sure how that is calculated either, but it was putting out some really strange totals on the NAM list night compared to Kuchera, which seemed off. 

[StormChazer]

Euro has just never let up.

 

[MoWeatherguy]

19 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Euro has just never let up.

 

Crazy stuff.  Maybe this is gonna be a wallop this time.

[StormChazer]

My ONLY concern right now so far, is the HRRR doesn't seem to be very gung-ho on this with amounts. If you aren't in the intense band, it really lowers numbers. at least in the first wave. Will await the 18Z.

[MUWX]

14 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

My ONLY concern right now so far, is the HRRR doesn't seem to be very gung-ho on this with amounts. If you aren't in the intense band, it really lowers numbers. at least in the first wave. Will await the 18Z.

The HRRR is pretty concerning for anyone north of the Arkansas border. The first wave is really starting to look like a non event for some.  

[JoMo]

17 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

My ONLY concern right now so far, is the HRRR doesn't seem to be very gung-ho on this with amounts. If you aren't in the intense band, it really lowers numbers. at least in the first wave. Will await the 18Z.

I'm hoping this is the HRRR bias of concentrating on frontal interactions so it's kind of missing the lift farther north of the most intense interaction. 

[The Waterboy]

Let’s just all agree the HRRR sucks until it shows the solution we like.  

[MoWeatherguy]

Maybe this is not a copyright infringement but here is Doug Heady latest forecast.  I've always respected him as a reliable forecaster in this area.  He's started his own private company now.