MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[MoWeatherguy]

From what I can tell it looks like most models have seen a slight uptick in overall QPF at 0z. Good sign. That warm nose will be the wildcard for most of the Arkansas crowd.

[andyhb]

The Euro/EPS really do seem to want to lay the smackdown on Oklahoma. 60-80% chance of a foot or more at 10:1 ratios on the 00z run.

Reminder that the greatest snowfall in OKC's history is GHD 2011 with ~14", so we're talking easily in historic territory if most of this stays snow/avoiding dryslots/etc.

[stormdragonwx]

Now that we are in the final 24 hours, I have to step back and be objective here, I think the models don't handle the warm air layer well. WAA might be stronger than indicated causing a lot of the snow to become sleet as I remember this happening with one of our big winter storms just last year after the models went nuts with 12+ beforehand. Likely this will be an issue during the first wave until the cold air layer deepens. Especially areas further south and east of US60 and I-35. Might be best to take these totals and half them. With that being said the QPF is still holding steady if not increasing. Many may still see close to a foot of snow. Just my two cents. 

[rockchalk83]

Feels like Lucy pulled the football back on us in S KS overnight. We went from sharing in the big totals with you guys to the southeast, to having 6-8 inches. Hoping for a slight northward trend, but I think the models finally have a good grasp on the Arctic air and track of the second wave, so it probably won't happen. 

Bummer.