Windspeed Posted Monday at 05:19 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:19 AM Two insane IR loops with lightning data for posterity. New IR and the older AVN. No doubt about it, Melissa's eyewall is absolutely cranking at present. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted Monday at 05:22 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:22 AM 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Two insane IR loops with lightning data for posterity. New IR and the older AVN. No doubt about it, Melissa's eyewall is absolutely cranking at present. I highly doubt this is still 145 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 05:28 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:28 AM I finally got to radar and while the eyewall looks tremendous there is also a huge moat starting to appear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharknado123 Posted Monday at 05:37 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:37 AM 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I finally got to radar and while the eyewall looks tremendous there is also a huge moat starting to appear. I noticed the HAFS-A in particular has been insistent since 06z in creating this moat before landfall when the hurricane is near peak strength in the 910s. doesn’t weaken the storm at all once the moat forms either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Monday at 05:44 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:44 AM Looks like north turn may be in process of happening now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Monday at 05:47 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:47 AM Alright, let’s guess what recon finds, anyone? Pressure/max winds guesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted Monday at 05:49 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:49 AM 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Alright, let’s guess what recon finds, anyone? Pressure/max winds guesses 165 920-924 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted Monday at 05:50 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:50 AM Thinking they find pressure in the 910mb-920mb range. Winds in the 170-180mph range. Strictly based on satellite and infrared imagery, also factoring in ADT estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Monday at 05:51 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:51 AM I’m thinking 915mb and 170mph, question is where it’ll fall since 170 is not an advisory strength, so 165/175. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 05:51 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:51 AM 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Alright, let’s guess what recon finds, anyone? Pressure/max winds guesses Total guess, 912mb/145kt (165mph) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted Monday at 05:52 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:52 AM Dvorak Technique says “hold my beer” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 05:55 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:55 AM 2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Dvorak Technique says “hold my beer” Well we’re about to find out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Monday at 05:55 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:55 AM 2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Dvorak Technique says “hold my beer” Would make it the strongest ATL basin hurricane on record by max winds… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted Monday at 05:57 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:57 AM Um……923mb in the S/SE quad of the eye? Oh boy, this just escalated quickly. Wonder what the NE quad measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 05:57 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:57 AM 923.2mb extrapolated (might not be dead center) Peak FL of 140kt Peak SFMR of 148 SE to NW pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 05:59 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:59 AM 2:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 Location: 16.3°N 77.7°W Moving: W at 5 mph Min pressure: 926 mb Max sustained: 150 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 06:02 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:02 AM I’m thinking this is probably a 5, but recon needs more time to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Monday at 06:02 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:02 AM I really thought this was going to be a cat 5 now especially given the satellite estimates and what data they're getting now. So confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 06:04 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:04 AM Just now, Radtechwxman said: I really thought this was going to be a cat 5 now especially given the satellite estimates and what data they're getting now. So confused. I don’t think the NHC could pull the trigger on a C5 with that little center data. Recon needs time to confirm imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Monday at 06:05 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:05 AM 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don’t think the NHC could pull the trigger on a C5 with that little center data. Recon needs time to confirm imo. Is this the plane that will issue the 5am advisory or will another flight follow this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted Monday at 06:06 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:06 AM 2 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: I really thought this was going to be a cat 5 now especially given the satellite estimates and what data they're getting now. So confused. Recon just started measuring, give them time. This reading is, again, from the southeast quadrant of the eyewall. The highest winds in a hurricane reside in the northeast quad where the lowest pressure also resides. We are minutes away from finding out what the NE quad measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Monday at 06:07 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:07 AM Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said: Recon just started measuring, give them time. This reading is, again, from the southeast quadrant of the eyewall. The highest winds in a hurricane reside in the northeast quad where the lowest pressure also resides. We are minutes away from finding out what the NE quad measures. Definitely eager to see that data and hopefully they get a good pass through the eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted Monday at 06:08 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:08 AM Looks like a cat 5 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 06:09 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:09 AM Zero doubt this is a 5 to me. Batch of 143-144 FL and unflagged SFMR of 135, 150, and 159kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted Monday at 06:10 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:10 AM Dropsonde says 924 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted Monday at 06:11 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:11 AM Just now, hawkeye_wx said: Dropsonde says 924 mb There you go, Cat-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted Monday at 06:11 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:11 AM Definitely Category 5, just need NE quad sampled to confirm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted Monday at 06:14 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:14 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Monday at 06:18 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:18 AM 4 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Not even the strongest quadrant. Absolutely insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 06:21 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:21 AM Keeping in mind the whole SFMR accuracy thing that I discussed last season, but still, very impressive. Would like to see a clean NE—SW pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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