MJO812 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Euro is more east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 4 hours ago, wishcast_hater said: The bigger joke is the models. People will defend them and say how much more advanced they are and all the extra data that is input into them and the result is always the same. Waffling and uncertainty even up until game time. Absolutely. The timing is awful. I understand the magnitude, intensity, winds, and type of precipitation, but why waffling with the onset of precipitation 72 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is more east 18z EURO AI made decent bump west: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Off base with this criticism, like most people who say such things. Declaring the SOE is simply for planning purposes so the State is ready to release funds for emergency response and recovery when and after a natural disaster strikes. It doesn't shut anything down, per se. https://nj.gov/njoem/about-us/state-of-emergency.shtml#:~:text=What is a State of,event exceeds the State's resources. You don't need a state of emergency to communicate and coordinate. Declaring a SOE has become too commonplace, and only de-emphasizes a potentially dangerous situation. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 45 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: People don't even read what the State of Emergency is specifically for, they just assume it means they are supposed to stay home. Some times that is the case, often it isn't. Doesn't matter. People who need to organize, coordinate and communicate for an event do not need a State of Emergency. We have seen a State of Emergency declared for the entire state when only 1 or 2 counties may be affected. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Doesn't matter. People who need to organize, coordinate and communicate for an event do not need a State of Emergency. We have seen a State of Emergency declared for the entire state when only 1 or 2 counties may be affected. It’s to get federal funds. That’s it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 18z GEMLAM looks much nicer than the 18z RGEM at hour 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 16 minutes ago, Dark Star said: You don't need a state of emergency to communicate and coordinate. Declaring a SOE has become too commonplace, and only de-emphasizes a potentially dangerous situation. how would you know? have you served in government? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 13 minutes ago, psv88 said: It’s to get federal funds. That’s it. funds that are unlikely to come these days.....hey we don't need fema right? the states can do it all themselves...... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: funds that are unlikely to come these days.....hey we don't need fema right? the states can do it all themselves...... Almost 80% of government is deemed essential and so it doesn't actually get shut down. FEMA is part of that 80%. Also I don't think a SOE has anything to do with the feds anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 5 hours ago, wishcast_hater said: The bigger joke is the models. People will defend them and say how much more advanced they are and all the extra data that is input into them and the result is always the same. Waffling and uncertainty even up until game time. Models had this way south from the start 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago I think 18z UKMET would be a bit better compared to 12z but the run stops at 66 so no way to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Lol and the game continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Euro ai 2 runs in row trending west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 31 minutes ago, Sundog said: Almost 80% of government is deemed essential and so it doesn't actually get shut down. FEMA is part of that 80%. Also I don't think a SOE has anything to do with the feds anyway. It does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 minute ago, psv88 said: It does Well either way they're not going to need it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago I hate this small gap in modeling during this time. I need more reasons to be duped into thinking this is coming west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago There is a lot of crap on X about this storm on X - seems like a lot of wannabes trolling for more followers. NWS was bullish on their X post at 6 pm - they still have my area at 2-2.5" of rain. Not sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Nam cut back but focus is on south and western areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Is the nam trying to merge Jerry into the system?! Or am I seeing things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Eps at 18z had some clusters to the left of placed center . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 hours ago, psv88 said: It’s to get federal funds. That’s it. I suggest you read the actual legislation, prior to what will soon become common knowledge. SOE declarations are an avenue for misappropriation of funds, and this has only emboldened those in power to declare them more frequently. While they absolutely do open the doors for federal funding, they simultaneously allow for interstate funding to be reallocated. It's not what you may believe it is. It occurs across party lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 hours ago, wdrag said: Noting the 18z EC and ECAI OP holding the northern stream closed low entity stronger and longer likely negating a phase with the Se USA trof. Will reword-soften the headline if ensembles and 00z-06z/11 cycles continue similarly eastward. For now, I dont know how this resolves. Checking back tomorrow. It certainly doesn't look like the big wound up powerful nor'easter we saw on the maps yesterday though a few of the models still drench us and kick up the winds. My gut feeling is the dry air works down from the north and that the low center at some point makes a righthand turn before the heavier rainfall is able to win out. I'm sure we'll get some rainfall and some wind gusts but to me at this point it looks manageable. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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