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"Potentially" powerful Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain-especially south of I84, and fairly high impact sct coastal gusts 50+ MPH and possibly moderate or greater coastal flooding at the midday Sun and Monday high tide cycles.


wdrag
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4 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

The bigger joke is the models.  People will defend them and say how much more advanced they are and all the extra data that is input into them and the result is always the same.  Waffling and uncertainty even up until game time. 

Absolutely.  The timing is awful.  I understand the magnitude, intensity, winds, and type of precipitation, but why waffling with the onset of precipitation 72 hours out?

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Off base with this criticism, like most people who say such things. Declaring the SOE is simply for planning purposes so the State is ready to release funds for emergency response and recovery when and after a natural disaster strikes. It doesn't shut anything down, per se. 

https://nj.gov/njoem/about-us/state-of-emergency.shtml#:~:text=What is a State of,event exceeds the State's resources.

You don't need a state of emergency to communicate and coordinate.  Declaring a SOE has become too commonplace, and only de-emphasizes a potentially dangerous situation.  

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45 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

People don't even read what the State of Emergency is specifically for, they just assume it means they are supposed to stay home. Some times that is the case, often it isn't. 

Doesn't matter.  People who need to organize, coordinate and communicate for an event do not need a State of Emergency.  We have seen a State of Emergency declared for the entire state when only 1 or 2 counties may be affected.  

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2 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Doesn't matter.  People who need to organize, coordinate and communicate for an event do not need a State of Emergency.  We have seen a State of Emergency declared for the entire state when only 1 or 2 counties may be affected.  

It’s to get federal funds. That’s it. 

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16 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

You don't need a state of emergency to communicate and coordinate.  Declaring a SOE has become too commonplace, and only de-emphasizes a potentially dangerous situation.  

how would you know? have you served in government? 

 

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7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

funds that are unlikely to come these days.....hey we don't need fema right? the states can do it all themselves......

Almost 80% of government is deemed essential and so it doesn't actually get shut down. FEMA is part of that 80%. 

Also I don't think a SOE has anything to do with the feds anyway. 

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5 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

The bigger joke is the models.  People will defend them and say how much more advanced they are and all the extra data that is input into them and the result is always the same.  Waffling and uncertainty even up until game time. 

Models had this way south from the start

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31 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Almost 80% of government is deemed essential and so it doesn't actually get shut down. FEMA is part of that 80%. 

Also I don't think a SOE has anything to do with the feds anyway. 

It does 

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2 hours ago, psv88 said:

It’s to get federal funds. That’s it. 

I suggest you read the actual legislation, prior to what will soon become common knowledge.  SOE declarations are an avenue for misappropriation of funds, and this has only emboldened those in power to declare them more frequently.   While they absolutely do open the doors for federal funding, they simultaneously allow for interstate funding to be reallocated. 

 

It's not what you may believe it is.  It occurs across party lines.  

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3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Noting the 18z EC and ECAI OP holding the northern stream closed low entity stronger and longer likely negating a phase with the Se USA trof.  Will reword-soften the headline if ensembles and 00z-06z/11 cycles continue similarly eastward. For now, I dont know how this resolves.  Checking back tomorrow.

 

It certainly doesn't look like the big wound up powerful nor'easter we saw on the maps yesterday though a few of the models still drench us and kick up the winds. My gut feeling is the dry air works down from the north and that the low center at some point makes a righthand turn before the heavier rainfall is able to win out. I'm sure we'll get some rainfall and some wind gusts but to me at this point it looks manageable.

WX/PT

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