October Hybrid: 2025 Edition

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I run them off my phone. It works great ! So many sources and it’s how I formulate my wind ideas 

Probably shouldn't ask but what did all your formulating come up with?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just an early idea.. but 50 ish gusts pike south and 60 ish 95 south and east . These seem reasonable at this early juncture . Definitely many outages with leaves on trees and any kind of Easterly wind direction component which trees are not accustomed to . And it’s a long duration wind event 

 

 

 

[willyvonka]

Need to take ferry from Nantucket on Tuesday. Any chance I’ll be stuck on the Island? I assume the storm will be mostly gone by then. 

[kdxken]

15 minutes ago, willyvonka said:

Need to take ferry from Nantucket on Tuesday. Any chance I’ll be stuck on the Island? I assume the storm will be mostly gone by then. 

Depends if you believe the Canadian model or not.

[WinterWolf]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Well 18z gfs certainly got wetter lol. Man this storm is all over the place.

But that’s just it the last 2-3 years…every single storm of consequence is always all over the place run to run at 2 days out.  As we close in it seems the modeling diverges more than ever.  0z will go back the other way, and 6z will go back the opposite again.  Seems worse than ever. 

[OrangeCTWX]

GFS pretty significantly further south with the low lol

[OrangeCTWX]

8 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

GFS pretty significantly further south with the low lol

[CoastalWx]

Gfs is a good hit. Not sure why everyone said it’s south. 
 

Euro and AI and NAM redevelop it south of New England and then rip it back west like some guidance showed yesterday. Definitely not in agreement with the interaction of a piece of moisture NW of Jerry. Need to get euro and AI more north for anything real meaningful I think. NAM is high impact, but when is it not lol.

[CoastalWx]

Also euro guidance takes that s/w over the lakes and moves it over us which blocks how far north it can get. My gut says that the main issue is keeping this further south and helping to reduce impacts, but still time i guess.