October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[wdrag]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The idea of a potentially wet October 30-November 3 period, perhaps +/- a few days to allow for timing differences at the current forecasting range, still looks to be on track as per the latest ECMWF weekly guidance.

It should be noted that the CFSv2 is still not on board. On the other hand, the 12z ECMWF has insane rainfall amounts in the Middle Atlantic Region.

Continues this morning with the 00z/21 EPS much deeper at 5H than the 00z GEFS, but the 06z GEFS has deepened bug not yet responsive at the surface and resultant rainfall.

No thread yet, dependent on la/lo of sfc low and its gradient. It will rain in that period, seemingly Oct 29-30 and may bring October monthly to normal.  Too early for me on a thread. EPS twice as much qpf than the GEFS and CMCE so not a lock on a strong system. 

[steve392]

42 chilly degree's this morning at work.  Big temp difference from home to work.  Felt great walking in.  

[SACRUS]

 

63 / 41.   Sunny.  Maybe a scattered shower later as front passes through ,otherwise a dry week.  Near normal. 

 

FRont to WPA

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 84 (1947)
NYC: 84 (1920)
LGA: 82 (1947)
JFK: 81 (1963)

Lows:

EWR: 31 (1974)
NYC: 31 (1871)
LGA: 33 (1974)
JFK: 31 (1973)

Historical:

1743: On the evening of the 21st Ben Franklin had hoped to observe a lunar eclipse in Philadelphia but cloudy skies from a VA coastal storm hide the moon. Franklin later learned from sources in Boston that the same eclipse seen in clear skies in the NE but a violent storm hit them the next day. Franklin reasoned that it was the same storm and that weather moves.
(Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)  It puzzled Franklin that the system seemed to move from southwest to northeast even though winds at his location were from the northeast. He theorized the winds in the storm system must have been rotating around a center. A brilliant deduction considering he had no satellite to show the big picture.
(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1780: Spanish Admiral Solano was enroute from Havana to Pensacola in October 1780 to capture the important port city. The third major hurricane of the month swept north through the Gulf of Mexico catching and scattering the fleet of 64 warships. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1804: First snow of the season seen by the Lewis and Clark Expedition near Bismark, North Dakota. The snow fell to a depth of one-half inch. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1934 - A severe windstorm lashed the northern Pacific coast. In Washington State, the storm claimed the lives of 22 persons, and caused 1.7 million dollars damage, mostly to timber. Winds, gusting to 87 mph at North Head WA, produced waves twenty feet high. (David Ludlum)


1952: Earliest first frost in Washington DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
 

1957 - The second in a series of unusual October storms hit southern California causing widespread thunderstorms. Santa Maria was drenched with 1.13 inches of rain in two hours. Hail drifted to 18 inches in East Los Angeles. Waterspouts were sighted off Point Mugu and Oceanside. (20th-21st) (The Weather Channel)

1975: Carlton Fisk made history on this day because of a walk-off home run in the 1975 World Series, after rain had postponed it for three days.

1987 - Cold arctic air continued to invade the central U.S. Eleven record lows were reported in the Great Plains Region, including lows of 12 degrees at Valentine NE, and 9 degrees at Aberdeen SD. Temperatures warmed rapidly during the day in the Southern and Central Plains Region. Goodland KS warmed from a morning low of 24 degrees to an afternoon high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Joan, the last hurricane of the season, neared the coast of Nicaragua packing 125 mph winds. Joan claimed more than 200 lives as she moved over Central America, and total damage approached 1.5 billion dollars. Crossing more than 40 degrees of longitude, Hurricane Joan never strayed even one degree from the 12 degree north parallel. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued to grip the south central and southeastern U.S. Twenty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Calico AR with a reading of 26 degrees, and Daytona Beach FL with a low of 41 degrees. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region finally came to an end, but not before leaving Marquette MI buried under 12.7 inches of snow, a record 24 hour total for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996: A state of emergency was declared in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine after a powerful coastal storm dumped over a foot of rain causing massive flooding. Portland, ME recorded 7.92 inches of rainfall in 24 hours to set their rainfall record.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Boston, Massachusetts on the 20th and 21st had the greatest 24 hour precipitation of 6.66 inches for the month of October. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1998: A tropical depression formed in the southwest Caribbean Sea, about 360 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. This disturbance would intensify over the next few days to become Hurricane Mitch, a monster storm that would eventually become the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record, behind "The Great Hurricane" of 1780 in the Caribbean. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

[donsutherland1]

The latest CFS outlook has now shifted toward a wetter outcome for the close of October and start of November.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

If you exterminated mosquitos you’d lose a lot of aquatic life that feed in their larvae. You’d also lose quite a few other species. Bats need mosquitos too. Draining wetlands leads to increased disease spread. Most of the aggressive mosquitos are NOT from swamps and marshes. But they are from stagnant standing water like clogged gutters, untreated pool covers, used tires filled with water inside (hence it is illegal to store tires outside with the inside exposed within nyc). 

Bill Gates has the right idea, he has introduced sterile genetically modified mosquitoes that can't breed into Florida to lessen malaria and other diseases that they carry.

So different types of mosquitoes behave differently?

I get rid of standing water right away, it breeds not just mosquitoes but other biting bugs like horseflies and gnats.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

This literally might be the dumbest f**king thing you have ever said on here and you say a lot of dumb $hit. Our wetlands provide flood control, pollution management, and yes disease regulation. They are some of our most productive systems. I’m sorry but you really need to be 5-posted with posts like this. Hell much of the reason we have awful flooding in the USA is because of how we got rid of so many wetlands…

 

Out of the box thinking is not *dumb*, just because you're an unimaginative uncreative robot.  I've read some of your posts, so I know. The conventional *ideas* that people like you have will NOT get us out of the various crises we face.

It's not *dumb* to want to get rid of places that stink.  I'm not talking about getting rid of ALL marshland obviously, just the ones near where people live.  You obviously do not live near one.  Do you know how bad that area smells in the summer?  Most of the who live here want the swamp that runs near Rockaway Boulevard to be drained because it smells so awful that you can smell it even with your windows roll up.

Check yourself, there's plenty of good area for wetlands, but it doesn't have to be near where people live.

You might need a time out, people are allowed to express their opinions.

There are ways around flooding-- INCLUDING IMPROVED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS.  There's a lot we can do to fix flooding issues, stop using concrete and asphalt are examples.

Take some Paxil so you can calm the hell down dude. 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The worst was when my neighbor back in Long Beach decided to plant running bamboo all around his property. It came under the fence and grew about 15 feet high around my side yard in just a few months. It took me a long time to dig out all the roots since they were starting to climb up the side of my old place. That was the toughest garden challenge that I ever encountered. Long Beach passed some local ordinances against it. 
 

https://patch.com/new-york/longbeach/city-council-votes-to-restrict-bamboo-plantings

Isn't bamboo an invasive species? Why don't people get arrested for doing this crap?

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday saw a one-degree difference in high temperatures among Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains for the second consecutive day. The last time that happened was February 14-15, 2014.

Today it could hit 70 here

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The idea of a potentially wet October 30-November 3 period, perhaps +/- a few days to allow for timing differences at the current forecasting range, still looks to be on track as per the latest ECMWF weekly guidance.

It should be noted that the CFSv2 is still not on board. On the other hand, the 12z ECMWF has insane rainfall amounts in the Middle Atlantic Region.

where exactly is this rain coming from Don?

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Newark will probably approach or reach 70°. Most of the NYC area will probably fall just short.

it's close to 70 here now

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 84 (1947)
NYC: 84 (1920)
LGA: 82 (1947)
JFK: 81 (1963)

Lows:

EWR: 31 (1974)
NYC: 31 (1871)
LGA: 33 (1974)
JFK: 31 (1973)

Historical:

1743: On the evening of the 21st Ben Franklin had hoped to observe a lunar eclipse in Philadelphia but cloudy skies from a VA coastal storm hide the moon. Franklin later learned from sources in Boston that the same eclipse seen in clear skies in the NE but a violent storm hit them the next day. Franklin reasoned that it was the same storm and that weather moves.
(Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)  It puzzled Franklin that the system seemed to move from southwest to northeast even though winds at his location were from the northeast. He theorized the winds in the storm system must have been rotating around a center. A brilliant deduction considering he had no satellite to show the big picture.
(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1780: Spanish Admiral Solano was enroute from Havana to Pensacola in October 1780 to capture the important port city. The third major hurricane of the month swept north through the Gulf of Mexico catching and scattering the fleet of 64 warships. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1804: First snow of the season seen by the Lewis and Clark Expedition near Bismark, North Dakota. The snow fell to a depth of one-half inch. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1934 - A severe windstorm lashed the northern Pacific coast. In Washington State, the storm claimed the lives of 22 persons, and caused 1.7 million dollars damage, mostly to timber. Winds, gusting to 87 mph at North Head WA, produced waves twenty feet high. (David Ludlum)


1952: Earliest first frost in Washington DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
 

1957 - The second in a series of unusual October storms hit southern California causing widespread thunderstorms. Santa Maria was drenched with 1.13 inches of rain in two hours. Hail drifted to 18 inches in East Los Angeles. Waterspouts were sighted off Point Mugu and Oceanside. (20th-21st) (The Weather Channel)

1975: Carlton Fisk made history on this day because of a walk-off home run in the 1975 World Series, after rain had postponed it for three days.

1987 - Cold arctic air continued to invade the central U.S. Eleven record lows were reported in the Great Plains Region, including lows of 12 degrees at Valentine NE, and 9 degrees at Aberdeen SD. Temperatures warmed rapidly during the day in the Southern and Central Plains Region. Goodland KS warmed from a morning low of 24 degrees to an afternoon high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Joan, the last hurricane of the season, neared the coast of Nicaragua packing 125 mph winds. Joan claimed more than 200 lives as she moved over Central America, and total damage approached 1.5 billion dollars. Crossing more than 40 degrees of longitude, Hurricane Joan never strayed even one degree from the 12 degree north parallel. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued to grip the south central and southeastern U.S. Twenty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Calico AR with a reading of 26 degrees, and Daytona Beach FL with a low of 41 degrees. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region finally came to an end, but not before leaving Marquette MI buried under 12.7 inches of snow, a record 24 hour total for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996: A state of emergency was declared in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine after a powerful coastal storm dumped over a foot of rain causing massive flooding. Portland, ME recorded 7.92 inches of rainfall in 24 hours to set their rainfall record.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Boston, Massachusetts on the 20th and 21st had the greatest 24 hour precipitation of 6.66 inches for the month of October. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1998: A tropical depression formed in the southwest Caribbean Sea, about 360 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. This disturbance would intensify over the next few days to become Hurricane Mitch, a monster storm that would eventually become the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record, behind "The Great Hurricane" of 1780 in the Caribbean. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1743: On the evening of the 21st Ben Franklin had hoped to observe a lunar eclipse in Philadelphia but cloudy skies from a VA coastal storm hide the moon. Franklin later learned from sources in Boston that the same eclipse seen in clear skies in the NE but a violent storm hit them the next day. Franklin reasoned that it was the same storm and that weather moves.
(Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)  It puzzled Franklin that the system seemed to move from southwest to northeast even though winds at his location were from the northeast. He theorized the winds in the storm system must have been rotating around a center. A brilliant deduction considering he had no satellite to show the big picture.
(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

I would much rather see the eclipse

1996: A state of emergency was declared in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine after a powerful coastal storm dumped over a foot of rain causing massive flooding. Portland, ME recorded 7.92 inches of rainfall in 24 hours to set their rainfall record.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Boston, Massachusetts on the 20th and 21st had the greatest 24 hour precipitation of 6.66 inches for the month of October. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

How much rain did this storm drop here? I don't remember it at all Tony.

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

where exactly is this rain coming from Don?

Frontal passage possibly slowed by blocking, allowing for greater precipitation. There are some hints of a tropical moisture connection. Details remain to be resolved.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Frontal passage possibly slowed by blocking, allowing for greater precipitation. There are some hints of a tropical moisture connection. Details remain to be resolved.

But that tropical system will probably remain offshore and the front will just funnel the moisture up here without any of the high winds?

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But that tropical system will probably remain offshore and the front will just funnel the moisture up here without any of the high winds?

I don’t think any tropical cyclone will make landfall. Some moisture could be tapped, allowing for an enhancement of rainfall.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I don’t think any tropical cyclone will make landfall. Some moisture could be tapped, allowing for an enhancement of rainfall.

I think those 3-6 inch rainfall amounts are somewhat overdone, 1-2 inches are more likely.  That's what we need, heavier rainfall would just cause flooding and not help drought concerns.

[FPizz]

67, pretty breezy with frequent gusts into the low 20s.

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

 

Out of the box thinking is not *dumb*, just because you're an unimaginative uncreative robot.  I've read some of your posts, so I know. The conventional *ideas* that people like you have will NOT get us out of the various crises we face.

It's not *dumb* to want to get rid of places that stink.  I'm not talking about getting rid of ALL marshland obviously, just the ones near where people live.  You obviously do not live near one.  Do you know how bad that area smells in the summer?  Most of the who live here want the swamp that runs near Rockaway Boulevard to be drained because it smells so awful that you can smell it even with your windows roll up.

Check yourself, there's plenty of good area for wetlands, but it doesn't have to be near where people live.

You might need a time out, people are allowed to express their opinions.

There are ways around flooding-- INCLUDING IMPROVED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS.  There's a lot we can do to fix flooding issues, stop using concrete and asphalt are examples.

Take some Paxil so you can calm the hell down dude. 

 

 

Dude that isn't out of the box thinking. It is not scientifically accurate or even remotely a good idea. Just so we are clear I have earned a Masters in environmental remediation and PhD in vector-borne diseases and published in both these fields. So no, I am not an uncreative robot. As for conventional *ideas* you haven't the slightest clue as to what we scientists have actually done to fix these issues. Did you know we have tried rather unconventional ways of reducing tick burdens throughout Long Island and the Hudson Valley? We have tried to have mice build nesting material made with insecticide in the threads. We have tried treating deer in the fall to reduce adult tick mating. We are thinking outside the box using science. 

Humans LOVE living by water and water is vitally important, but complaining about the smell of a marsh that was literally there for hundreds of thousands of years is insane. The vast majority of marshlands exist in high human density areas. The US has lost over 50% of its wetlands to drainage and development since 1950. You make an awful lot of assumptions about people yourself. I literally live in The Great Swamp of NY. The used to call children from Patterson swamp creatures. I grew up spending summers with my grandparents in East Lyme, CT, in a marsh. Also the town where Lyme disease was officially discovered and why it is Lyme disease and not Lime disease. Did you know that marshes and swamps rival tropical rainforests for biological productivity? Swamps reduce pollution and reduce disease burden. Drained wetlands turn into some of our least productive, most disease burdened areas. These are what science tells us. Just take a look at how many chemicals it takes to run a golf course and also why they require more pest control. 

As for people expressing their opinions, I am all for it, but I require students and people to back up their "opinions" with references and actual science. People in the field do call out bad ideas when we see them. I have had to take a lot of criticism in science, we all do, that is what makes us better scientists. Draining wetlands and exterminating mosquitos just isn't thinking outside the box, it is literally potentially sending us on a death spiral. We are likely already in another mass extinction event, only this time we are causing it through habitat fragmentation and way over using pesticides. Pardon me for being upset that we are literally gutting environmental protections.

I am not trying to be mean, but I am curious, what are the conventional ideas I have had? Because I'm pretty intense when I discuss that we really need to change the way we live if we are going to persist into the future. The fact that microplastics are found in literally everything is enough to cause concern. 

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 84 (1947)
NYC: 84 (1920)
LGA: 82 (1947)
JFK: 81 (1963)

Lows:

EWR: 31 (1974)
NYC: 31 (1871)
LGA: 33 (1974)
JFK: 31 (1973)

Historical:

1743: On the evening of the 21st Ben Franklin had hoped to observe a lunar eclipse in Philadelphia but cloudy skies from a VA coastal storm hide the moon. Franklin later learned from sources in Boston that the same eclipse seen in clear skies in the NE but a violent storm hit them the next day. Franklin reasoned that it was the same storm and that weather moves.
(Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)  It puzzled Franklin that the system seemed to move from southwest to northeast even though winds at his location were from the northeast. He theorized the winds in the storm system must have been rotating around a center. A brilliant deduction considering he had no satellite to show the big picture.
(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1780: Spanish Admiral Solano was enroute from Havana to Pensacola in October 1780 to capture the important port city. The third major hurricane of the month swept north through the Gulf of Mexico catching and scattering the fleet of 64 warships. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1804: First snow of the season seen by the Lewis and Clark Expedition near Bismark, North Dakota. The snow fell to a depth of one-half inch. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1934 - A severe windstorm lashed the northern Pacific coast. In Washington State, the storm claimed the lives of 22 persons, and caused 1.7 million dollars damage, mostly to timber. Winds, gusting to 87 mph at North Head WA, produced waves twenty feet high. (David Ludlum)


1952: Earliest first frost in Washington DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
 

1957 - The second in a series of unusual October storms hit southern California causing widespread thunderstorms. Santa Maria was drenched with 1.13 inches of rain in two hours. Hail drifted to 18 inches in East Los Angeles. Waterspouts were sighted off Point Mugu and Oceanside. (20th-21st) (The Weather Channel)

1975: Carlton Fisk made history on this day because of a walk-off home run in the 1975 World Series, after rain had postponed it for three days.

1987 - Cold arctic air continued to invade the central U.S. Eleven record lows were reported in the Great Plains Region, including lows of 12 degrees at Valentine NE, and 9 degrees at Aberdeen SD. Temperatures warmed rapidly during the day in the Southern and Central Plains Region. Goodland KS warmed from a morning low of 24 degrees to an afternoon high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Joan, the last hurricane of the season, neared the coast of Nicaragua packing 125 mph winds. Joan claimed more than 200 lives as she moved over Central America, and total damage approached 1.5 billion dollars. Crossing more than 40 degrees of longitude, Hurricane Joan never strayed even one degree from the 12 degree north parallel. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued to grip the south central and southeastern U.S. Twenty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Calico AR with a reading of 26 degrees, and Daytona Beach FL with a low of 41 degrees. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region finally came to an end, but not before leaving Marquette MI buried under 12.7 inches of snow, a record 24 hour total for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996: A state of emergency was declared in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine after a powerful coastal storm dumped over a foot of rain causing massive flooding. Portland, ME recorded 7.92 inches of rainfall in 24 hours to set their rainfall record.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Boston, Massachusetts on the 20th and 21st had the greatest 24 hour precipitation of 6.66 inches for the month of October. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1998: A tropical depression formed in the southwest Caribbean Sea, about 360 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. This disturbance would intensify over the next few days to become Hurricane Mitch, a monster storm that would eventually become the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record, behind "The Great Hurricane" of 1780 in the Caribbean. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

Good Old Ben...

[SACRUS]

 

71 here - front into CPA

 

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Dude that isn't out of the box thinking. It is not scientifically accurate or even remotely a good idea. Just so we are clear I have earned a Masters in environmental remediation and PhD in vector-borne diseases and published in both these fields. So no, I am not an uncreative robot. As for conventional *ideas* you haven't the slightest clue as to what we scientists have actually done to fix these issues. Did you know we have tried rather unconventional ways of reducing tick burdens throughout Long Island and the Hudson Valley? We have tried to have mice build nesting material made with insecticide in the threads. We have tried treating deer in the fall to reduce adult tick mating. We are thinking outside the box using science. 

Humans LOVE living by water and water is vitally important, but complaining about the smell of a marsh that was literally there for hundreds of thousands of years is insane. The vast majority of marshlands exist in high human density areas. The US has lost over 50% of its wetlands to drainage and development since 1950. You make an awful lot of assumptions about people yourself. I literally live in The Great Swamp of NY. The used to call children from Patterson swamp creatures. I grew up spending summers with my grandparents in East Lyme, CT, in a marsh. Also the town where Lyme disease was officially discovered and why it is Lyme disease and not Lime disease. Did you know that marshes and swamps rival tropical rainforests for biological productivity? Swamps reduce pollution and reduce disease burden. Drained wetlands turn into some of our least productive, most disease burdened areas. These are what science tells us. Just take a look at how many chemicals it takes to run a golf course and also why they require more pest control. 

As for people expressing their opinions, I am all for it, but I require students and people to back up their "opinions" with references and actual science. People in the field do call out bad ideas when we see them. I have had to take a lot of criticism in science, we all do, that is what makes us better scientists. Draining wetlands and exterminating mosquitos just isn't thinking outside the box, it is literally potentially sending us on a death spiral. We are likely already in another mass extinction event, only this time we are causing it through habitat fragmentation and way over using pesticides. Pardon me for being upset that we are literally gutting environmental protections.

I am not trying to be mean, but I am curious, what are the conventional ideas I have had? Because I'm pretty intense when I discuss that we really need to change the way we live if we are going to persist into the future. The fact that microplastics are found in literally everything is enough to cause concern. 

I know about your credentials, we've discussed them before and I respect them.

But why are you using insecticides in mice nesting material? As a scientist you must be aware of the effect this has on local bird populations that feed on mice, like owls?  There has to be a better way that doesn't impact other wildlife, such as birds.  I had an invasion of ticks at my other house in the Poconos when a deer crashed into my pool and died there.  Most of the ticks that I saw that summer were black ticks.  I bought something to spray on my clothes as a tick repellant-- permethrin.  I also read that opossum are the most efficient way to deal with ticks, as they are their main natural predator. So I've been encouraging more opossum onto that property and the ticks have been going down.  We have opossum here too even though I live in a semi-urban area, I think they would be a great way to drive down the tick population without using chemicals.

I am well aware of Lyme disease and how it's spread to other areas.  I blame stupid humans who decided that it's better to remove predators like coyotes and wolves and cougars that feed on white tailed deer who are the primary vector of the tick that carries Lyme disease.  Maybe if humans didn't kill off the predators we wouldn't have an explosion of white tailed deer.

I think you misinterpreted what I stated, I never said we should remove ALL wetlands, just trim them back from highly populated areas.  As for drainage, not using concrete and asphalt would help with drainage as well as helping with urban heat island.  I'm all for more greenery, as in more trees and native plants and grasses, less of the invasive stuff that has become so common here.

I am 100% against pesticides.  They are the main driver of the 6th mass extinction in the planet's history, as much of a problem as climate change is.  And are destroying our own systems of food production by causing the collapse of pollinator populations.  Something I always like to say is that humans are part of the environment, we can't consider ourselves separate from it, because what we do to it, we also do to ourselves.  We're all interconnected.  As far as mosquitoes are concerned, malaria is one of the top killers on the planet and there are many other mosquito borne diseases.  We have better ways than using toxic chemicals.  Bill Gates idea of using sterilized genetically modified mosquitoes is one of them to control their populations.

By the way, thanks for mentioning microplastics.  Did you know that 6 out of 13 types of cancer are on a rapid rise even in younger people because of a combination of highly processed food, microplastics in food as well as environmental toxins like pesticides?  It seems like we are going backwards and regressing.  Humanity isn't sustainable in its current form.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

71 here - front into CPA

 

this is the ideal day, even the wind is much less than it was yesterday.

these frequent frontal passages are a fly in the ointment though (but a sign it's Fall.)

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think those 3-6 inch rainfall amounts are somewhat overdone, 1-2 inches are more likely.  That's what we need, heavier rainfall would just cause flooding and not help drought concerns.

Yes, some of the ECMWF runs have been wildly unrealistic. Above normal rainfall is possible, though.

[JustinRP37]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I know about your credentials, we've discussed them before and I respect them.

But why are you using insecticides in mice nesting material? As a scientist you must be aware of the effect this has on local bird populations that feed on mice, like owls?  There has to be a better way that doesn't impact other wildlife, such as birds.  I had an invasion of ticks at my other house in the Poconos when a deer crashed into my pool and died there.  Most of the ticks that I saw that summer were black ticks.  I bought something to spray on my clothes as a tick repellant-- permethrin.  I also read that opossum are the most efficient way to deal with ticks, as they are their main natural predator. So I've been encouraging more opossum onto that property and the ticks have been going down.  We have opossum here too even though I live in a semi-urban area, I think they would be a great way to drive down the tick population without using chemicals.

I am well aware of Lyme disease and how it's spread to other areas.  I blame stupid humans who decided that it's better to remove predators like coyotes and wolves and cougars that feed on white tailed deer who are the primary vector of the tick that carries Lyme disease.  Maybe if humans didn't kill off the predators we wouldn't have an explosion of white tailed deer.

I think you misinterpreted what I stated, I never said we should remove ALL wetlands, just trim them back from highly populated areas.  As for drainage, not using concrete and asphalt would help with drainage as well as helping with urban heat island.  I'm all for more greenery, as in more trees and native plants and grasses, less of the invasive stuff that has become so common here.

I am 100% against pesticides.  They are the main driver of the 6th mass extinction in the planet's history, as much of a problem as climate change is.  And are destroying our own systems of food production by causing the collapse of pollinator populations.  Something I always like to say is that humans are part of the environment, we can't consider ourselves separate from it, because what we do to it, we also do to ourselves.  We're all interconnected.  As far as mosquitoes are concerned, malaria is one of the top killers on the planet and there are many other mosquito borne diseases.  We have better ways than using toxic chemicals.  Bill Gates idea of using sterilized genetically modified mosquitoes is one of them to control their populations.

By the way, thanks for mentioning microplastics.  Did you know that 6 out of 13 types of cancer are on a rapid rise even in younger people because of a combination of highly processed food, microplastics in food as well as environmental toxins like pesticides?  It seems like we are going backwards and regressing.  Humanity isn't sustainable in its current form.

The insecticide we were using in the nesting material was permethrin-laced cotton, so that it would not spread beyond the nesting site. The goal was to kill off the larval blacklegged ticks on the white-footed mice to help control Lyme disease spread, since the mice are the primary reservoir for the Lyme bacteria. There was limited success, but we would truly need way more than we could possibly put out in nature to truly make a difference. We try not to use any insecticides that can travel for the exact reasons you are wrong about below. Permethrin and insecticides that stay in fibers are safe while protecting the user. The number one most terrible thing being done today is things like Mosquito Joe, spraying backyards. Mosquitoes travel for well over a few miles, so treating a backyard does absolutely nothing for mosquitoes, while obliterating your local good insect population. The biodiversity crisis is honestly the most alarming thing to me, more so than climate change, and that is alarming as well. If we have to start paying people to pollinate all our major crops, we are screwed.

We are going backwards. People are more focused on weird health trends versus actually trying to be healthy by having a healthy environment. Many do not like spending any appreciable time outside because it is "gross" or "buggy". I always tell my students that you can always eat well, exercise, not smoke, etc., but if you live in an area with impaired drinking water, your risks for a lot of health issues skyrocket. If you live near a coal mine, your risks for various cancers skyrocket through no fault of your own. It is wild out there.

[uofmiami]

 

[doncat]

10 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

 

Hope so...it seems every system coming up from the south has high pressure building down from the north at the same time, suppressing it...just bad timing or what?

[donsutherland1]

A strong cold front will move across the region tonight. Parts of the region will see some showers and perhaps a thundershower.

Following the frontal passage, an extended period of cooler than normal weather will follow. Highs tomorrow will top out in the lower 60s. Readings will then rise only into the middle and upper 50s through at least the coming weekend.

There is a growing likelihood that the closing days of October into the opening days of November could experience a significant rain event.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +15.15 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.870 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

The insecticide we were using in the nesting material was permethrin-laced cotton, so that it would not spread beyond the nesting site. The goal was to kill off the larval blacklegged ticks on the white-footed mice to help control Lyme disease spread, since the mice are the primary reservoir for the Lyme bacteria. There was limited success, but we would truly need way more than we could possibly put out in nature to truly make a difference. We try not to use any insecticides that can travel for the exact reasons you are wrong about below. Permethrin and insecticides that stay in fibers are safe while protecting the user. The number one most terrible thing being done today is things like Mosquito Joe, spraying backyards. Mosquitoes travel for well over a few miles, so treating a backyard does absolutely nothing for mosquitoes, while obliterating your local good insect population. The biodiversity crisis is honestly the most alarming thing to me, more so than climate change, and that is alarming as well. If we have to start paying people to pollinate all our major crops, we are screwed.

We are going backwards. People are more focused on weird health trends versus actually trying to be healthy by having a healthy environment. Many do not like spending any appreciable time outside because it is "gross" or "buggy". I always tell my students that you can always eat well, exercise, not smoke, etc., but if you live in an area with impaired drinking water, your risks for a lot of health issues skyrocket. If you live near a coal mine, your risks for various cancers skyrocket through no fault of your own. It is wild out there.

I don't spray anything outside, just inside, when mosquitoes come inside they are fair game. The ones that come inside are very aggressive, I've been chased across my house by mosquitoes.  I guess the ones that come inside are of the extra aggressive variety?  And now we have that new tropical parasite to worry about.   I do let spiders handle most indoor insects.  There's a spider in one of my windows that grabs mosquitoes and other insects regularly (even hornets).  It fascinates me, it's a small spider and some of the insects it gets are up to 3x its size. I had to use Permethrin on my clothes because last summer I found 6 black legged ticks on my clothes and would have to undress and leave my clothes outside submersed in a bucket of water and change clothes in my garage.  This was even with Permethrin on my clothes, so I'm not sure how effective it was.

Along with reduced pollinator populations, I'm not sure if people realize how fragile our entire ecosystem is, even our monotype agriculture is one step away from being completely wiped out. We have unsafe drinking water here, our aquifers have been found to have a carcinogenic pesticide that has infiltrated our drinking water so I've put a whole home six stage filter on our water, which I have to change once a year.  The wild thing about coal is, it creates more radioactive waste than nuclear fission does and yet people are more worried about nuclear power for some reason.  I understand that nuclear isn't without risk, but coal is so much worse.

 

[LibertyBell]

45 minutes ago, doncat said:

Hope so...it seems every system coming up from the south has high pressure building down from the north at the same time, suppressing it...just bad timing or what?

Sounds like a winter pattern setting up.

The end of October for whatever reason is one of those periods in which strong noreasters are common, so maybe we will have a big rain and wind event? If so, the noreaster pattern is setting up early this season.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, some of the ECMWF runs have been wildly unrealistic. Above normal rainfall is possible, though.

Could there be a big noreaster with very high winds as we have seen at the end of October before?