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October 2025 Discussion and Obs


wdrag
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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The operational ECMWF certainly does before bringing a captured tropical cyclone into Maine and then northwestward from there. The proverbial pieces could be available. It will be interesting to see if we wind up getting tropical-enhanced rainfall, even if just through a frontal passage.

Maybe it will hook into our region like how Sandy did, the timing seems right, same time of the month that Sandy came here.

 

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The MJO is really favorable for development in the Western Caribbean. We will just have to wait and see how much interaction there is with the trough forecast to be near the Great Lakes. Maybe the cutoff event last weekend was the beginning of a wetter pattern for our area.

 

IMG_4944.thumb.png.758d516a90e4ade321f39a07e2ba21f0.png

 

dry summers and wet winters are exactly what we want

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Wonder if we can actually tap some tropical moisture later in the month? We haven’t been able to do this in a while. Probably just have wait and see what comes of the potential Western Caribbean development. 
 

IMG_4942.thumb.png.6eb35e2154516009e110356deab3d955.png

IMG_4943.thumb.png.e820c7a97df0650a92ad5b8b792ba9e8.png

 

Maybe even a Sandy type track? That pattern looks VERY familiar and the time of the month is right too.

 

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12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe even a Sandy type track? That pattern looks VERY familiar and the time of the month is right too.

 

Far more likely, the potential tropical cyclone will approach or die as it heads toward Central America or flung NE/ENE out into the Atlantic. A lot would need to happen for the capture to play out. Models don’t have skill this far out on such details.

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45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Far more likely, the potential tropical cyclone will approach or die as it heads toward Central America or flung NE/ENE out into the Atlantic. A lot would need to happen for the capture to play out. Models don’t have skill this far out on such details.

Except the Euro predicted Sandy hitting NJ a week out.  That gave birth to the Euro being the "best" model, until it wasn't..

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9 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Except the Euro predicted Sandy hitting NJ a week out.  That gave birth to the Euro being the "best" model, until it wasn't..

It reminds me of when the 1978 February Blizzard was predicted a week out, whatever happened to the model that did that anyway? We could use it with how poor skills the models have been showing for winter storms (or the lack thereof) the last several years.

 

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Under mostly sunny skies, much of the region saw temperatures reach or exceed 70° today. Highs included:

Atlantic City: 70°
Bridgeport: 70°
Islip: 70°
New Haven: 71°
New York City-Central Park: 70°
New York City-JFK Airport: 70°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 71°
Newark: 73°
Philadelphia: 72°

A cold front will move across the region tonight into tomorrow morning. Low pressure will likely form along the front and move across the region. Periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms are likely into tomorrow. A period of severe weather is possible. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely.

Following the frontal and storm passage, temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 60s through midweek. A stronger push of cold air could arrive afterward. Cool temperatures will likely persist through next weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +7.60 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.919 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under mostly sunny skies, much of the region saw temperatures reach or exceed 70° today. Highs included:

Atlantic City: 70°
Bridgeport: 70°
Islip: 70°
New Haven: 71°
New York City-Central Park: 70°
New York City-JFK Airport: 70°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 71°
Newark: 73°
Philadelphia: 72°

A cold front will move across the region tonight into tomorrow morning. Low pressure will likely form along the front and move across the region. Periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms are likely into tomorrow. A period of severe weather is possible. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely.

Following the frontal and storm passage, temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 60s through midweek. A stronger push of cold air could arrive afterward. Cool temperatures will likely persist through next weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +7.60 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.919 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

Yes 70 areawide including the south shore!

It was sunny pretty much all day right up until sunset here too!

TV Mets messed up the high again and said it was 69 lol

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