SACRUS Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 22 minutes ago, Dark Star said: 11 hours, seems less than that. I guess we only notice when the sun is up, versus twilight during dawn and dusk... -2:57 today to 10:57(ish) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: -2:57 today to 10:57(ish) why is it so windy today? it's ruining what should have been a wonderful day. it hit 72 here earlier but the damn wind has made my allergies really bad starting around 11 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 76 / 60 Gem of a late october day 72 here the wind is horrible and really provoking my allergies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Hum much more aggressive that most models which are trending poorly due to bad timing it's not really bad timing for those of us who like mild sunny days, but the wind aspect of today really sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: 68 here 72 here but too windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The operational ECMWF certainly does before bringing a captured tropical cyclone into Maine and then northwestward from there. The proverbial pieces could be available. It will be interesting to see if we wind up getting tropical-enhanced rainfall, even if just through a frontal passage. Maybe it will hook into our region like how Sandy did, the timing seems right, same time of the month that Sandy came here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, LibertyBell said: Maybe it will hook into our region like how Sandy did, the timing seems right, same time of the month that Sandy came here. 12z Euro again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 hours ago, bluewave said: The MJO is really favorable for development in the Western Caribbean. We will just have to wait and see how much interaction there is with the trough forecast to be near the Great Lakes. Maybe the cutoff event last weekend was the beginning of a wetter pattern for our area. dry summers and wet winters are exactly what we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Made it to 78 before clouds started to move in bit now at 75 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Wonder if we can actually tap some tropical moisture later in the month? We haven’t been able to do this in a while. Probably just have wait and see what comes of the potential Western Caribbean development. Maybe even a Sandy type track? That pattern looks VERY familiar and the time of the month is right too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 14 hours ago, psv88 said: Yea that lake water isn’t coming back. Maybe for the best. Let nature be nature what caused its drying out, lower rainfall totals over the past year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Made it to 78 before clouds started to move in bit now at 75 too bad you could have hit 80 today still bright and sunny here but just too windy for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 72 here but too windy Humidity is a bit much.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Humidity is a bit much.. That might be adding to my allergies too-- wind plus humidity is a very bad combo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Maybe even a Sandy type track? That pattern looks VERY familiar and the time of the month is right too. Far more likely, the potential tropical cyclone will approach or die as it heads toward Central America or flung NE/ENE out into the Atlantic. A lot would need to happen for the capture to play out. Models don’t have skill this far out on such details. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Far more likely, the potential tropical cyclone will approach or die as it heads toward Central America or flung NE/ENE out into the Atlantic. A lot would need to happen for the capture to play out. Models don’t have skill this far out on such details. Except the Euro predicted Sandy hitting NJ a week out. That gave birth to the Euro being the "best" model, until it wasn't.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Except the Euro predicted Sandy hitting NJ a week out. That gave birth to the Euro being the "best" model, until it wasn't.. It reminds me of when the 1978 February Blizzard was predicted a week out, whatever happened to the model that did that anyway? We could use it with how poor skills the models have been showing for winter storms (or the lack thereof) the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: what caused its drying out, lower rainfall totals over the past year? Massive flooding which broke a dam which formed the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This doesn’t mean anything in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 58 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Except the Euro predicted Sandy hitting NJ a week out. That gave birth to the Euro being the "best" model, until it wasn't.. Yes, that seems to have been an exception, prominent as it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 20 minutes ago, psv88 said: Massive flooding which broke a dam which formed the lake. So the dam was never rebuilt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Front to WPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 21 minutes ago, Sundog said: So the dam was never rebuilt? No. Not clear if it will be either. Some people want it to remain natural and not blocked off again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Under mostly sunny skies, much of the region saw temperatures reach or exceed 70° today. Highs included: Atlantic City: 70° Bridgeport: 70° Islip: 70° New Haven: 71° New York City-Central Park: 70° New York City-JFK Airport: 70° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 71° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 72° A cold front will move across the region tonight into tomorrow morning. Low pressure will likely form along the front and move across the region. Periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms are likely into tomorrow. A period of severe weather is possible. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely. Following the frontal and storm passage, temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 60s through midweek. A stronger push of cold air could arrive afterward. Cool temperatures will likely persist through next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +7.60 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.919 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 70 the high here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 70.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted 38 minutes ago Share Posted 38 minutes ago 70.4 in Muttontown & 70.1 in Syosset for the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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