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October 2025 Discussion and Obs


wdrag
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1 minute ago, Sundog said:

When you take the October averages from 1981-2010 from the Central Park records available on the NWS site it comes out to 57.3 degrees. 

Do you know how they would arrive to 56.9? 

Tampering probably :P JK, but that really is odd if you did the math and it is .4 warmer than what is listed.  Maybe you found an error?

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14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There's been virtually no change.

Central Park: 1961-1990: 10/6; 1991-2020: 10/5; 2000-2025: 10/6

JFK: 1961-1990: 10/10; 1991-2020: 10/9; 2000-2025: 10/11

well this is strange, I thought it was moving towards November.

how about for the first low temperature below 40 for both locations, Don-- any changes there? Thanks!

 

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7 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Tampering probably :P JK, but that really is odd if you did the math and it is .4 warmer than what is listed.  Maybe you found an error?

For a 30 year average 0.4 is a lot. 

Last fall because of frustration of not being able to find prior 30 year averages I calculated the 30 year averages all the way back to 1870 using all the monthly data available on the NWS site for Central Park. 

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9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

When you take the October averages from 1981-2010 from the Central Park records available on the NWS site it comes out to 57.3 degrees. 

Do you know how they would arrive to 56.9? 

Statistical adjustments are involved. The numbers aren't raw averages.

https://www.noaa.gov/explainers/understanding-climate-normals

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

well this is strange, I thought it was moving towards November.

how about for the first low temperature below 40 for both locations, Don-- any changes there? Thanks!

 

Such lows are occurring later.

Central Park: 1961-1990: 10/19; 1991-2020: 10/22; 2000-2025: 10/24

JFK: 1961-1990: 10/17; 1991-2020: 10/21; 2000-2025: 10/22

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9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Statistical adjustments are involved. The numbers aren't raw averages.

https://www.noaa.gov/explainers/understanding-climate-normals

Well I find this kind of absurd. If there is a problem with the data why isn't it adjusted at the monthly level and then posted online?

You know what's interesting, I just checked and there is no missing data at all from Central Park for those 30 Octobers, and it certainly hasn't changed location during that time, which were the two main reasons given for doing temperature adjustments. 

And did it have instrument issues that they needed a fix that resulted in a whopping 0.4 adjustment?

I find it very silly. 

 

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42 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Well I find this kind of absurd. If there is a problem with the data why isn't it adjusted at the monthly level and then posted online?

You know what's interesting, I just checked and there is no missing data at all from Central Park for those 30 Octobers, and it certainly hasn't changed location during that time, which were the two main reasons given for doing temperature adjustments. 

And did it have instrument issues that they needed a fix that resulted in a whopping 0.4 adjustment?

I find it very silly. 

 

We agree that it’s a large adjustment. Unfortunately, I don’t have the specific details.

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