Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

Moderate sleet falling here now and 35. What a wonderful wintry morning after a period of non-accumulating light snow earlier. 

Looking forward to work-related scheduling headaches Tuesday!

[canderson]

A dusting in the city 

[Blizzard of 93]

12z GFS brings Warning level snow to most of the Susquehanna Valley on Tuesday.

[Blizzard of 93]

12z RGEM is looking good as well.

[Blizzard of 93]

The Friday night into Saturday am potential event is still there on the 12z GFS & Canadian.

[WmsptWx]

I do like that the first "widespread" threat isn't from something flukey like Huron streamers or a clipper. 

[Itstrainingtime]

CTP hoists a Winter Storm Watch for the northeast portion of their area including @Voyager

[canderson]

Pretty aggressive for CTP For Harrisburg  

[canderson]

But with temps in the mid to upper 30s I don’t expect much road accumulation here at all after sunrise. 

[Ruin]

9 minutes ago, canderson said:

But with temps in the mid to upper 30s I don’t exceed much road accumulation here at all 

its going to start about 1am and snow all day into that night. Most likely we will have snow on all roads if the strength of the storm holds true with temps in the mid 30s. secondary roads will be covered for sure and the main roads will have some build up as well. we all know penndot doesnt do a good job for the most part on snow storms cleaning up. they put much of the effort into pre treating. I could see 1-2 inchs on the main roads mixed with some slush less travelled will have more of course. 

[Ruin]

11 minutes ago, canderson said:

Pretty aggressive for CTP For Harrisburg  

this forecast is so model dependent as well depending on what model nwa hugs. they claim they do a blend of models to do the forecast but when most models say all snow and only one says a mix of snow and rain. makes me question if they just model hug 1 model.

[Voyager]

Did any of you look beyond Tuesday's forecast snow? Might be the first single digit night of the winter for some.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 9.

[Blizzard of 93]

18z GFS still looking good for Tuesday for Warning snow potential for the vast majority of the Susquehanna Valley.

[WmsptWx]

Question is: Does the night shift dick at CTP pull the trigger or do they wait until the virga starts moistening up?

[Voyager]

14 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Question is: Does the night shift dick at CTP pull the trigger or do they wait until the virga starts moistening up?

For what? Adding counties to the watch area, or going from watch to warning or advisory?

[WmsptWx]

13 minutes ago, Voyager said:

For what? Adding counties to the watch area, or going from watch to warning or advisory?

Advisory.

[Ruin]

question how are the ai weather models compared the to established ones? I havent really followed the ai models much but do see they get used a bit.

[WmsptWx]

WGAL on board for 2-5 for everybody, Steverino our big winner at 5-8. 

[mahantango#1]

1 hour ago, WmsptWx said:

Advisory.

Advisory should be issued every winter event...since it seems 75% or more don't know how to drive in winter precipitation events.

[Yardstickgozinya]

3 hours ago, Ruin said:

this forecast is so model dependent as well depending on what model nwa hugs. they claim they do a blend of models to do the forecast but when most models say all snow and only one says a mix of snow and rain. makes me question if they just model hug 1 model.

We're well past the long and mid range for this system, there's a lot of other datasets used in forecasting like real-time observations and forecast soundings, and there coming into play at this point. 

[Blizzard of 93]

@Itstrainingtime

I did my snow mow today!

 

[Blizzard of 93]

I also gassed up my snowblower and started it up.

Ready for whatever this week brings!

[Porsche]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I also gassed up my snowblower and started it up.

Ready for whatever this week brings!

You’re gonna be going through so much gas this winter, I hope you’ve saved up over the years to get prepared!! ❄️ 

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@Itstrainingtime

I did my snow mow today!

 

Did mine last weekend! 2" of snow will fully cover it. 

[Voyager]

It'll be interesting to see who verifies here...

WNEP: 1-3 for Tamaqua

CTP: 6-8 for Tamaqua

[canderson]

Ego batteries charged up. Going with 2.5” for MDT. 

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Ego batteries charged up. Going with 2.5” for MDT. 

I’d sign for that to get on the official board for the season.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z GFS holds serve & delivers Warning snow to most of us again for Tuesday.

[mahantango#1]

Seems NWS shaved 3 in off the total this morning. Tuesday  Snow before 10am, then snow, possibly mixed with rain. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[mahantango#1]

https://tinyurl.com/ykvxepp2