2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[Met1985]

47 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

The 12Z NAM suggests several inches of snow with multiple rounds beginning Saturday night into Monday morning. That model suggests that Asheville could pickup an inch or so.

So you have the NAM coming into place with the gfs.

[Buckethead]

So you have the NAM coming into place with the gfs.

And the Canadian.

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[Met1985]

The gfs has been rock steady.

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[Met1985]

Maybe the Euro is coming around a bit?

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[Maggie Valley Steve]

GSP in their afternoon disco mentioned a solid Winter Weather Advisory event for lower mountain elevations and Winter Storm Warning possible above 3500 ft.

[wncsnow]

Got some cool lenticular clouds developing in Buncombe

[Met1985]

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Got some cool lenticular clouds developing in Buncombe

Yeah no kidding for sure.

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

GSP in their afternoon disco mentioned a solid Winter Weather Advisory event for lower mountain elevations and Winter Storm Warning possible above 3500 ft.

I think that's a great call.

[Met1985]

Say what you will but the GFS has not wavered in days with this event.

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[Met1985]

NAM is another solid hit.

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[Buckethead]

Here's a few maps GSP issued for posterity.

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[Met1985]

Flow snow looking great still and we got some good beneficial rain this morning. 

[Met1985]

Also to note while we get this snow and cold blast all the indicies are in the wrong place. NAO positive,  AO positive, and PNA negative... Just means when it flips next month we are in for it.

[Tacoma]

any snow for Asheville, 

 

[ncjoaquin]

12 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

any snow for Asheville, 

 

1/2 inch to an inch seems possible. Maybe more if you luck up and end up under a heavier snow shower.  

[Met1985]

13 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

any snow for Asheville, 

 

Possibly north Asheville but depends on the trajectory of the flow and the forcing. 

[Met1985]

12z NAM looks good. Absolutely hammers from the coast of around Delaware to New England. I've got a friend who lives in Delaware ill get pictures and obs from.

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[BooneWX]

This was a major win for the gfs. One of the most notable wins it’s had in as long as I can remember.

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

This was a major win for the gfs. One of the most notable wins it’s had in as long as I can remember.

Yeah no kidding and people won't give it props. 

[ncjoaquin]

To add to the above for Asheville, NWS has an official forecast of 0, with a high end of 2 inches. 

 

 

[Met1985]

12z gfs steady as can be. Some wavering here and there but that's to be expected.

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[Maggie Valley Steve]

GSP will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the border Counties and a Winter Storm Warning for Avery and Mitchell Counties beginning at midnight continuing until Monday afternoon.

[Met1985]

14 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

GSP will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the border Counties and a Winter Storm Warning for Avery and Mitchell Counties beginning at midnight continuing until Monday afternoon.

Nice!

[Met1985]

Madison-Yancey-Haywood-

Including the cities of Cruso, Luck, Ramseytown, Waterville,

Micaville, Swiss, Burnsville, Busick, Walnut, Cove Creek,

Waynesville, Hot Springs, Allenstand, Marshall, Canton, Mars

Hill, Faust, and Celo

150 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT...

 

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations mainly between 1

  and 3 inches in the valleys. 4 to 7 inches with locally higher

  amounts are expected in the higher elevations, mainly along the

  Tennessee border.

 

* WHERE...Haywood, Madison, and Yancey Counties.

 

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST Monday Night.

 

[Met1985]

Swain-

150 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT ABOVE 3500 FEET...

 

* WHAT...Snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations

  mainly between 3 and 7 inches, with a foot or more possible on the

  high peaks of the Smokies. Up to an inch is possible in the

  valleys beneath the Smokies.

 

* WHERE...The high elevations of Swain County.

 

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST Monday Night.

 

[Met1985]

Avery-

Including the cities of Banner Elk, Ingalls, and Newland

150 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT

EST MONDAY NIGHT...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations mostly

  between 2 and 6 inches, with amounts up to 10 inches possible

  along the Tennessee border and in the high elevations.

 

* WHERE...Avery County.

 

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST

[Met1985]

Mitchell-

Including the cities of Poplar and Spruce Pine

150 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT

EST MONDAY NIGHT ABOVE 3500 FEET...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT BELOW 3500 FEET...

 

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning above 3500 feet, heavy snow

  expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 10 inches. For

  the Winter Weather Advisory below 3500 feet, snow expected. Total

  snow accumulations between 1 and 4 inches, with higher amounts

  along the Tennessee border.

 

* WHERE...Mitchell County.

 

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST Monday Night.

 

[nchighcountrywx]

Winter Storm Warning hoisted. 
 

CZ033-220400-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0002.260222T0500Z-260224T0500Z/
Avery-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Ingalls, and Newland
150 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
EST MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations mostly
between 2 and 6 inches, with amounts up to 10 inches possible
along the Tennessee border and in the high elevations.

* WHERE...Avery County.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST Monday Night.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may
produce a few power outages due to the weight of the snow on tree
limbs and power lines. The hazardous conditions could impact the
Monday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 50 mph could result
in areas of blowing snow and very low visibility Sunday night and
Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

[nchighcountrywx]

[nchighcountrywx]

Latest guidance from GSP

KEY MESSAGE 2: A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER WEATHER WITH VERY GUSTY NW   WINDS, ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW   NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.     NORTHWEST FLOW REALLY RAMPS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON   SUNDAY, AS A COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC   COASTAL WATERS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL   CAA WILL SUPPORT VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTN   AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PEAK GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH CANNOT   BE RULED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SUNDAY   AFTN, BUT PEAK GUSTS INTO ADVISORY-CRITERIA RANGE OF 45-60 MPH   WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500 FT HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH   THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING IN LATE IN THE 2ND PERIOD AND INTO 3RD   PERIOD, WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY.     THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS   LATE SUNDAY MORNING THRU ABOUT MIDDAY, BUT MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE   AGAIN IN THE AFTN AND RAMP UP SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. SNOW   ACCUMS WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS   OF THE EVENT DUE TO WARMER VALLEY TEMPS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BAND   OF RAIN DEVELOPING WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE   COASTAL LOW THAT COULD SET UP JUST EAST OF I-77. THIS IS NOT   EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. OTHERWISE, SKIES   CLEAR OUT AND TEMPS RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL FOR HIGHS, MAINLY IN   THE 30 TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S   IN THE PIEDMONT.     THE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW MACHINE WILL BE CRANKING UP SUNDAY EVENING,   AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGS FROM THE CORN BELT SUNDAY   EVENING TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE,   THE DEPTH OF POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE COVERING THE TN VALLEY AND MUCH   OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 700 MB...WITH   TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER COOLING TO -16 TO -20C. WHILE   THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER IS FORECAST TO BECOME GRADUALLY MORE   SHALLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE   MOIST LAYER REMAIN NO WARMER THAN -16 UNTIL TUE EVENING. THIS MEANS   A PROTRACTED PERIOD...30 HOURS OR MORE OF A HIGH PROBABILITY OF   DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AND EFFICIENT SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS...ALL   WITHIN PERSISTENT STRONG NW UPSLOPE FLOW. SOLID WINTER WX ADVISORY   CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE   SMOKIES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF THE OTHER NC   COUNTIES BORDERING TN. CURRENT FORECAST STORM TOTALS ARE GENERALLY   IN THE 1-4" RANGE IN THE VALLEYS NORTH OF I-40, WITH ABOUT TWICE   THAT RANGE EXPECTED ABOVE 3500 FEET. ESPECIALLY FAVORED UPSLOPE/HIGH   ELEVATION AREAS ALONG THE STATE LINE WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND A FOOT   OR MORE. THIS IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A WINTER STORM   WARNING FOR AVERY COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF MITCHELL   COUNTY, WHILE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR YANCEY,   MADISON, HAYWOOD, AND THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF SWAIN.     WITH VERY WINDY (LIKELY WIND ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE   MOUNTAINS) AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,   WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED   ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS LIKELY ABOVE 4000 FEET   OR SO. CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL BE "VERY CLOSE, BUT NOT   QUITE" IN TERMS OF REACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT   CAN'T RULE OUT THAT ONE WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER   ELEVATIONS AND/OR THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL   FINALLY STEADILY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT, WITH DRY AND COOLER-THAN-   NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN WIND CHILL   VALUES WILL AGAIN BE LOW MON NIGHT, BUT WITH WINDS STEADILY   DIMINISHING, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ON SUNDAY   NIGHT.