2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[BretWx]

12Z GEFS MEAN went up:

[BretWx]

EURO holding steady so far. Images to follow!

[Sw NC weather]

Euro AIFS is a good 5-10” snow for WNC. Regular Euro is similar a smidge east from last run but not bad.

[BretWx]

[BretWx]

QPF totals ticked down but we're dealing with some COLD COLD air and also high ratios. And the setup and movement nearly the same. 

Looking at a roughly 20 hour snowfall with temps in the low 20s during the thick of it. 7PM onset tomorrow through 7PM Saturday.

[Buckethead]

We've been upgraded to a winter storm warning!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1236 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-300300-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0002.260130T2100Z-260201T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0001.260130T2100Z-260201T1200Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford
Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Cullowhee, Swiss, Cedar Mountain, Little
River, Hendersonville, Old Fort, Wesser, Busick, Celo, Wolf
Mountain, Ramseytown, Cruso, East Flat Rock, Waterville,
Marshall, Candler, Fletcher, Bryson City, Black Mountain,
Tuckasegee, Spruce Pine, Jonas Ridge, Banner Elk, Canton, Kyle,
Tuxedo, Luada, Asheville, Franklin, Stecoah, Walnut, Rainbow
Springs, Brevard, Cove Creek, Etowah, Woodlawn, Cashiers, Hot
Springs, Waynesville, Saluda, Faust, Dana, Mars Hill, Almond,
Micaville, Robbinsville, Alarka, Luck, Sylva, Ashford,
Burnsville, Poplar, Patterson, Chimney Rock State Park,
Allenstand, Newland, Highlands, Sugar Hill, and Ingalls
1236 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...A portion of western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may
produce isolated power outages due to the weight of the snow on
tree limbs and power lines. The hazardous conditions could impact
the Friday evening commute. Strong winds could cause damage to
trees and power lines.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to rapidly stick to roads
and other surfaces due to temperatures in the 20s. Travel
conditions could deteriorate rapidly as early as Friday evening.
Very gusty winds on Saturday could result in areas of blowing
snow, causing very poor visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$


Extreme Cold Watch
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1231 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-300300-
/O.NEW.KGSP.EC.A.0002.260131T1800Z-260201T1800Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford
Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Cullowhee, Swiss, Cedar Mountain, Little
River, Hendersonville, Old Fort, Wesser, Busick, Celo, Wolf
Mountain, Ramseytown, Cruso, East Flat Rock, Waterville,
Marshall, Candler, Fletcher, Bryson City, Black Mountain,
Tuckasegee, Spruce Pine, Jonas Ridge, Banner Elk, Canton, Kyle,
Tuxedo, Luada, Asheville, Franklin, Stecoah, Walnut, Rainbow
Springs, Brevard, Cove Creek, Etowah, Woodlawn, Cashiers, Hot
Springs, Waynesville, Saluda, Faust, Dana, Mars Hill, Almond,
Micaville, Robbinsville, Alarka, Luck, Sylva, Ashford,
Burnsville, Poplar, Patterson, Chimney Rock State Park,
Allenstand, Newland, Highlands, Sugar Hill, and Ingalls
1231 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 22 below possible.

* WHERE...A portion of western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero
could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.



Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

[BretWx]

[Met1985]

Dang @Buckethead! You just beat me by a minute lol.

[BretWx]

20 below Zero wind-chill. Good GOD.

[Met1985]

Yeah this weekend is going to be wild. 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

Just got back from Asheville. Heavy brine being laid on I-40 in Haywood County. I'm not sure how much good it will do with the very cold temperatures we're expecting as the snow falls tomorrow afternoon into Saturday. The Ice Extravaganza in Maggie Valley has been canceled for Saturday.

[BretWx]

This will be a very unusual and highly anomalous event in many ways
with near record low 500mb heights, very cold temperatures and rare
Snow-to-Liquid Ratios (SLRs) of 15:1 - 20:1. The dendritic growth
zone will be very deep with plentiful forcing for efficient snow
growth. Thus, it won`t take much QPF to reach warning criteria snow
across practically the entire forecast area.

[BretWx]

18Z HRRR trying to get things started around here between 3-4PM tomorrow.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

3 minutes ago, BretWx said:

18Z HRRR trying to get things started around here between 3-4PM tomorrow.

Looks like it has snow moving into @Buckethead's area around lunch time. 

[BretWx]

18Z HRRR - Quick hit but upped from 12Z. 

 

[BretWx]

18Z NAM a lot further south with the precip. 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

Thanks for everyone posting the models today! I've had a hectic day and you guys have allowed me to get updates quickly!

[BretWx]

18Z NAM is amped and a further east with the LP.

[CheoahBald1]

18Z NAM is amped and a further east with the LP.

3k is different


.

[BretWx]

Looks solid to me. Trend is the focus right now. 

[Hvward]

Seeing the idea of some decent NWF into Sunday AM on the NAM 3km with temps close to zero. Could add to many totals.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

Surprised to see my point and click suggesting 4 to 8 inches possibly higher. The wind doesn't look like much of an issue until Saturday night. It's also interesting seeing another chance of snow Wednesday afternoon into Thursday in that point and click forecast as well.

[Met1985]

25 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Surprised to see my point and click suggesting 4 to 8 inches possibly higher. The wind doesn't look like much of an issue until Saturday night. It's also interesting seeing another chance of snow Wednesday afternoon into Thursday in that point and click forecast as well.

Yup, same here which I'm looking for some higher amounts honestly. Saturday and Sunday the highs are going to be in the teens. Sunday mornings low looks to be negative 2 degrees and Monday morning looks to be about 3 degrees. 

[Met1985]

Gfs looking to be another great run.

[BretWx]

QPF ticked down but honestly none of us here can complain. Not trying to be snowed in for days especially with -20 wind-chills. It will be amazing to see it fall for almost 24 hours. It has been a LONG time. 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

35 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yup, same here which I'm looking for some higher amounts honestly. Saturday and Sunday the highs are going to be in the teens. Sunday mornings low looks to be negative 2 degrees and Monday morning looks to be about 3 degrees. 

It's going to fun to focus on small Mesoscale features that we just won't know until an hour or two prior. I'm beginning to see some ratio output suggesting 23:1 and a few approaching 25:1. Wherever a band sets up near the UL could drop a foot to 16 inches. We'll see.