Met1985 Posted Sunday at 07:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:43 PM 3rd straight day it's rained here. I've had I've had over 2 inches of rainfall in 3 days. Had a high of 77 yesterday. A low of 53 this morning and a current temp of 67. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted Tuesday at 03:09 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:09 AM No rain today, but we had a decent shower last evening for about 45 minutes. Our Poplar trees a starting to dump on September 22nd. That seems early to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted Tuesday at 01:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:35 PM Been jealous of the weather back home but finally feeling like fall out here in Billings the last few days, low 40’s this morning and can see my breath, feels great! Back to the 80’s for another week though, guess I should enjoy the sun and nice weather while I can! How’s the color progression coming along? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted Wednesday at 12:29 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:29 AM We're getting a shower this evening in the Valley. It's looking like a wet period ahead the next several days. My neighbor just below us commented that we are having an early Fall. Her family have been in Maggie Valley for generations. She stated that this year reminds her of 10 years ago. To @WxKnurd I was in Sylva yesterday and Waynesville today. There is a spattering of color, bit we're still a couple of weeks away from peak at high Valley locations. I'll head up to Waterrock Knob in the next day or two and if I can some pictures to share. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Wednesday at 12:30 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:30 AM What a yucky evening current. Had a high of 76 but it's still 65 tonight and a bit humid. The pattern is a toss up from about 4 days on out but looks interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Wednesday at 12:32 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:32 AM 10 hours ago, WxKnurd said: Been jealous of the weather back home but finally feeling like fall out here in Billings the last few days, low 40’s this morning and can see my breath, feels great! Back to the 80’s for another week though, guess I should enjoy the sun and nice weather while I can! How’s the color progression coming along? Yeah seems to be a bit early on color. The leaf season should be good. Locally we haven't really had a real dry stretch yet and I don't think we will as Steve has alluded to. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Wednesday at 02:07 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:07 AM 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Yeah seems to be a bit early on color. The leaf season should be good. Locally we haven't really had a real dry stretch yet and I don't think we will as Steve has alluded to. Yeah, looking like a great fall foliage Season over there. Not looking good here due to an extended dry period (2 weeks) that just ended. Some color now but many just brown, dead leaves falling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted Wednesday at 04:58 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:58 PM The 12Z GFS solution suggests our rain chances will continue over the next 5 to 7 days with some SW Mountain locations possibly exceeding 5 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Wednesday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:19 PM The 12Z GFS solution suggests our rain chances will continue over the next 5 to 7 days with some SW Mountain locations possibly exceeding 5 inches YepSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted yesterday at 12:35 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:35 AM Big slow moving storms moving into the far SW Mountain Counties. GSP stated in their afternoon disco that rain chance increase over the Mountains overnight into tomorrow morning. Nothing looks severe, but there is so very rich tropical moisture out there and heavy rainfall is a possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted yesterday at 12:50 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:50 AM And there's the first statement from GSP this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted yesterday at 02:03 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:03 AM Radar looks juiced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted yesterday at 02:26 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:26 AM Tonight's hazards.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted yesterday at 02:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:31 AM Heavy rain and storms are here. Anyone in WNC whose been dry recently will get some much needed rainfall. Those who have seen rain already will be waterlogged. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted yesterday at 10:52 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:52 AM More rain coming in this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted yesterday at 01:13 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:13 PM Picked up 1.50” since yesterday afternoon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted yesterday at 06:01 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:01 PM Future Imelda looking more like it'll bring some heavy rains early next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted yesterday at 06:26 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:26 PM I'm not sold yet on the various model solutions for 94L. I'd feel more confident if we had days of agreement as we did last year with Helene. Once recon gets in for their standard cyclone sampling I believe we will get better agreement in the Hurricane and operational guidance. As you can see below, a lot of aircraft assets are being ramped up and the G-IV high altitude surveillance flights will be valuable for the upper air pattern conditions. 000 NOUS42 KNHC 251715 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 115 PM EDT THU 25 SEPTEMBER 2025 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2025 TCPOD NUMBER.....25-116 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR HISPANIOLA - AL94) FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42 A. 27/0000Z A. 27/0000Z B. NOAA9 09GGA SURV B. NOAA2 10GGA TDR C. 26/1730Z C. 26/2000Z D. NA D. 22.3N 74.8W E. NA E. 26/2100Z TO 27/0300Z F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 49 A. 27/0600Z A. 27/1200Z B. AFXXX 11GGA SURVEY B. NOAA9 12GGA SURV C. 27/0445Z C. 27/0530Z D. 22.8N 75.3W D. NA E. 27/0530Z TO 27/0900Z E. NA F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT G. SYSTEM SURVEY G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE H. WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT SIX - TEAL 76 A. 27/1200Z A. 27/1130,1730Z B. NOAA2 1309A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 1409A CYCLONE C. 27/0800Z C. 27/1015Z D. 23.2N 75.7W D. 23.2N 75.7W E. 27/0900Z TO 27/1600Z E. 27/1100Z TO 27/1730Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. FIX H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT. B. TWO MORE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO AL94 FOR 28/0000Z AND 28/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/2000Z AND 28/0800Z RESPECTIVELY. C. TWO MORE NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND AL94 FOR THE 28/0000Z AND 28/1200Z SYNOPTIC TIMES, DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/1730Z AND 28/0530Z RESPECTIVELY. 3. REMARKS: A. THE TEAL 75 AND TEAL 76 MISSIONS INTO AL94 TASKED IN TCPOD 25-116 WERE CANCELED BY NHC AT 25/1200Z. B. THE TEAL 74 MISSION INTO AL94 HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A LOW-LEVEL INVEST NEAR 21.9N 74.2W FOR 26/1730Z, WITH THE TAKEOFF TIME CHANGED 6 HOURS TO 26/1545Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ KAL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago Obviously everyone in the SE are on alarm watch with what could transpire over the next several days. There are several variables with the steering currents and the strength of this possible tropical system. I'd like to see a few more days of consistency with this in the models. Obviously this will be talked and analyzed a lot but that's what we do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Just to illustrate the difficulty of this forecast, here are the 500mb height anomalies from the 0z Euro, Euro AI, and GFS. They clearly show that 94L's eventual track is hugely dependent on the speed and placement of both 94L and Humberto when they have their Fujiwhara interaction. Three scenarios are showing up. In the GFS solution, Humberto throws 94L into the South Carolina coast, and it quickly moves inland. Scenario 2, shown by the Euro, has Humberto partially capturing 94L, causing it to stall right on the S.C. coast but eventually releasing it. Again, 94L strikes the S.C. coast, but a bit further south and weaker. The Euro AI has a weaker and faster Humberto, which interacts earlier with 94L and causes that same stalling further out to sea. When 94L eventually gets free, it heads out to sea instead of west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Some wonky solutions overnight and this morning. This is from the 6z gfs. This would cause a lot of flooding in the area. A lot of people would have PTSD over this...Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago The first low level recon is underway. So far there is no indication of surface circulation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The 12Z GFS solution suggests our Region could receive 3 to 5 inches of rain the next 6 days. There does not appear to be much of a wind threat via the GFS. We could manage that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Yes, the steering current is very weak. That's why we have a cutoff low in the region that just meanders. This run kind of parks the tropical system in SC instead of further north. Still a lot of rain but as Steve said this won't be a powerhouse of a storm. Still a ways to go with this storm obviously. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said: The 12Z GFS solution suggests our Region could receive 3 to 5 inches of rain the next 6 days. There does not appear to be much of a wind threat via the GFS. We could manage that. Yeah this looks like a low end wind event current compared to other events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 41 minutes ago Share Posted 41 minutes ago The 12z euro is absolutely horrible for the coastal areas but would throw in beneficial moisture towards the area with possibly only minor flooding at that. Still two different camps in model solutions here.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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