2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[Met1985]

3rd straight day it's rained here. I've had I've had over 2 inches of rainfall in 3 days. Had a high of 77 yesterday.  A low of 53 this morning and a current temp of 67.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

No rain today, but we had a decent shower last evening for about 45 minutes. Our Poplar trees a starting to dump on September 22nd. That seems early to me.

[WxKnurd]

Been jealous of the weather back home but finally feeling like fall out here in Billings the last few days, low 40’s this morning and can see my breath, feels great! Back to the 80’s for another week though, guess I should enjoy the sun and nice weather while I can!  How’s the color progression coming along? 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

We're getting a shower this evening in the Valley. It's looking like a wet period ahead the next several days. 

My neighbor just below us commented that we are having an early Fall. Her family have been in Maggie Valley for generations. She stated that this year reminds her of 10 years ago. 

To @WxKnurd 

I was in Sylva yesterday and Waynesville today. There is a spattering of color, bit we're still a couple of weeks away from peak at high Valley locations. I'll head up to Waterrock Knob in the next day or two and if I can some pictures to share.

[Met1985]

What a yucky evening current.  Had a high of 76 but it's still 65 tonight and a bit humid.  The pattern is a toss up from about 4 days on out but looks interesting. 

[Met1985]

10 hours ago, WxKnurd said:

Been jealous of the weather back home but finally feeling like fall out here in Billings the last few days, low 40’s this morning and can see my breath, feels great! Back to the 80’s for another week though, guess I should enjoy the sun and nice weather while I can!  How’s the color progression coming along? 

Yeah seems to be a bit early on color.  The leaf season should be good. Locally we haven't really had a real dry stretch yet and I don't think we will as Steve has alluded to.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah seems to be a bit early on color.  The leaf season should be good. Locally we haven't really had a real dry stretch yet and I don't think we will as Steve has alluded to.

Yeah, looking like a great fall foliage Season over there. Not looking good here due to an extended dry period (2 weeks) that just ended. Some color now but many just brown, dead leaves falling.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

The 12Z GFS solution suggests our rain chances will continue over the next 5 to 7 days with some SW Mountain locations possibly exceeding 5 inches 

[Met1985]

The 12Z GFS solution suggests our rain chances will continue over the next 5 to 7 days with some SW Mountain locations possibly exceeding 5 inches 

Yep

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[Maggie Valley Steve]

Big slow moving storms moving into the far SW Mountain Counties. GSP stated in their afternoon disco that rain chance increase over the Mountains overnight into tomorrow morning. Nothing looks severe, but there is so very rich tropical moisture out there and heavy rainfall is a possibility.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

And there's the first statement from GSP this evening.

[Met1985]

Radar looks juiced. 

[Met1985]

Tonight's hazards.

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[Met1985]

Heavy rain and storms are here. Anyone in WNC whose been dry recently will get some much needed rainfall. Those who have seen rain already will be waterlogged. 

[Met1985]

More rain coming in this morning. 

[Rainforrest]

Picked up 1.50” since yesterday afternoon. 

[Tyler Penland]

Future Imelda looking more like it'll bring some heavy rains early next week.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

I'm not sold yet on the various model solutions for 94L. I'd feel more confident if we had days of agreement as we did last year with Helene. Once recon gets in for their standard cyclone sampling I believe we will get better agreement in the Hurricane and operational guidance. 

As you can see below, a lot of aircraft assets are being ramped up and the G-IV high altitude surveillance flights will be valuable for the upper air pattern conditions.

 

000

NOUS42 KNHC 251715

REPRPD

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

115 PM EDT THU 25 SEPTEMBER 2025

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

         VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2025

         TCPOD NUMBER.....25-116

 

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

    1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR HISPANIOLA - AL94)

       FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42

       A. 27/0000Z A. 27/0000Z

       B. NOAA9 09GGA SURV B. NOAA2 10GGA TDR

       C. 26/1730Z C. 26/2000Z

       D. NA D. 22.3N 74.8W

       E. NA E. 26/2100Z TO 27/0300Z

       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR

       H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

 

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 49

       A. 27/0600Z A. 27/1200Z

       B. AFXXX 11GGA SURVEY B. NOAA9 12GGA SURV

       C. 27/0445Z C. 27/0530Z

       D. 22.8N 75.3W D. NA

       E. 27/0530Z TO 27/0900Z E. NA

       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       G. SYSTEM SURVEY G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE     

       H. WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

 

       FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT SIX - TEAL 76

       A. 27/1200Z A. 27/1130,1730Z

       B. NOAA2 1309A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 1409A CYCLONE

       C. 27/0800Z C. 27/1015Z

       D. 23.2N 75.7W D. 23.2N 75.7W

       E. 27/0900Z TO 27/1600Z E. 27/1100Z TO 27/1730Z

       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. FIX

       H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

    

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:

       A. CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

       B. TWO MORE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO AL94 FOR 

          28/0000Z AND 28/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/2000Z AND 

          28/0800Z RESPECTIVELY.

       C. TWO MORE NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE

          MISSIONS AROUND AL94 FOR THE 28/0000Z AND 28/1200Z SYNOPTIC

          TIMES, DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/1730Z AND 28/0530Z

          RESPECTIVELY.

    3. REMARKS:

       A. THE TEAL 75 AND TEAL 76 MISSIONS INTO AL94 TASKED IN TCPOD 

          25-116 WERE CANCELED BY NHC AT 25/1200Z.

       B. THE TEAL 74 MISSION INTO AL94 HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A 

          LOW-LEVEL INVEST NEAR 21.9N 74.2W FOR 26/1730Z, WITH THE 

          TAKEOFF TIME CHANGED 6 HOURS TO 26/1545Z.

 

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

 

$$

KAL

[Met1985]

Obviously everyone in the SE are on alarm watch with what could transpire over the next several days. There are several variables with the steering currents and the strength of this possible tropical system.  I'd like to see a few more days of consistency with this in the models. Obviously this will be talked and analyzed a lot but that's what we do.

[GoAPPS]

Just to illustrate the difficulty of this forecast, here are the 500mb height anomalies from the 0z Euro, Euro AI, and GFS. They clearly show that 94L's eventual track is hugely dependent on the speed and placement of both 94L and Humberto when they have their Fujiwhara interaction. Three scenarios are showing up. In the GFS solution, Humberto throws 94L into the South Carolina coast, and it quickly moves inland. Scenario 2, shown by the Euro, has Humberto partially capturing 94L, causing it to stall right on the S.C. coast but eventually releasing it. Again, 94L strikes the S.C. coast, but a bit further south and weaker. The Euro AI has a weaker and faster Humberto, which interacts earlier with 94L and causes that same stalling further out to sea. When 94L eventually gets free, it heads out to sea instead of west.

[Met1985]

Some wonky solutions overnight and this morning. This is from the 6z gfs. This would cause a lot of flooding in the area. A lot of people would have PTSD over this...

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[Maggie Valley Steve]

The first low level recon is underway. So far there is no indication of surface circulation.