Invest 97L - 10/50

[TampaMan]

Basically, this one could very well be a threat to either the Gulf States, Florida or the East Coast and there's no telling until about 5 days or so from now. IF it did happen, what would your best guess be on the date that it would arrive to Contus? 

[TampaMan]

4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The blues over the N/E US and reds over Canada are showing a jet stream that's pushed north well into Canada -- which will make it more difficult for any storms that develop to recurve out to sea. Other than some cool-ish sea surface temps in the eastern basin and maybe some occasional drier air, there's no real obvious feature here that could hinder development. My guess is that it might take longer to develop than some of the models currently have, but it's a real threat if it makes it into the western basin with that upper level pattern in place.

I appreciate you doing that for me. That makes me nervous, knowing there may be absolutely nothing to stop it from gaining strength and on top of that, shooting directly at Florida or into the Gulf. 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, TampaMan said:

Basically, this one could very well be a threat to either the Gulf States, Florida or the East Coast and there's no telling until about 5 days or so from now. IF it did happen, what would your best guess be on the date that it would arrive to Contus? 

Pretty wide spread still. Aug 18-22 most likely IF it threatens imo.

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET maps are in at 168 hours. The question on that run for Conus had it gone out further is would the TD have recurved between those two H5 ridges and allow a safe recurve or would that weakness have filled in to block it and result in a U.S. threat? We’ll never know but fun to speculate:

12 UKMET at 168 (8/15 AM) sfc: moving WNW at 18 mph 430 miles ENE of PR:

 

12Z UKMET at 168 at H5: weakness between ridges just to NW could have later easily recurved it safely from Conus well OTS (though could then threaten Bermuda) had it not filled in but we’ll never know:

[TampaMan]

I'll be a nervous wreck for the next 5 days I see. Praying this doesn't occur. Not just for the sake of my vacation but for the sake of anyone and everyone along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. 

[csnavywx]

1 minute ago, TampaMan said:

I'll be a nervous wreck for the next 5 days I see. Praying this doesn't occur. Not just for the sake of my vacation but for the sake of anyone and everyone along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. 

Wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet. Still a lot of time to derail it. Just keep an eyeball on it. We'll let ya know when we think it's time to worry.

[TampaMan]

Just now, csnavywx said:

Wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet. Still a lot of time to derail it. Just keep an eyeball on it. We'll let ya know when we think it's time to worry.

I appreciate that, very much... 

[csnavywx]

28 minutes ago, Newman said:

The EPS and GEFS both came out hot with current 96L as well and slowly backed off to the point now we're seeing significantly less individual ensembles even produce a weak tropical disturbance, if anything at all. The EPS was consistent with the quick recurve north and looks to have notched a victory here with regards to track, but initially it was much more potent with 96L. All of that to say... Until there's an actual tropical system, these models usually run hot on development. I think this next wave will take longer to develop than currently modeled.

I believe the pattern favors the next wave making it into the SW Atlantic, and the environment is much more conducive to development. Give it 4-5 days here and the ensembles will be telling

 

I agree with this. The subseasonal forcing that's lining up is very favorable, but it still needs to consolidate out of what looks to be a large wave envelope over marginal SSTs and that's probably going to take quite a bit of time.

[BarryStantonGBP]

43 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

marginal SSTs

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

GTFIHHHHHHHHHHH

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing 
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow 
development of this system is possible next week while the system 
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and 
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[dbullsfan]

4 hours ago, TampaMan said:

I appreciate that, very much... 

I've been on this forum or lurking for seemingly 10 years and the first major threat to the CUSA always has Tampa in the cone, it's like a tradition. Not once has it ended up affecting us 

[TriPol]

This has been, without a doubt, one of the most relentlessly terrible hurricane seasons in recent memory. Not terrible in the exciting, blockbuster-movie way. Terrible in the ‘please someone turn the channel’ way. We’ve been tracking every swirl of wind and puff of cloud in the Atlantic, and, friends, it’s so bad… we’re now monitoring tropical waves in Chad. Yes, Chad. A landlocked country. That’s where we are. We’ve deployed our most advanced meteorological tools, consulted every weather model, and even stared meaningfully into the middle distance — nothing. These storms have been as thrilling as a DMV waiting room with no Wi-Fi. So, I urge everyone to remain calm, stay informed, and maybe bring a book. Because if things keep going like this, our next ‘storm of interest’ will be a cumulonimbus over Saskatchewan.

[WxWatcher007]

Idub is that you?  

[BarryStantonGBP]

46 minutes ago, TriPol said:

This has been, without a doubt, one of the most relentlessly terrible hurricane seasons in recent memory. Not terrible in the exciting, blockbuster-movie way. Terrible in the ‘please someone turn the channel’ way. We’ve been tracking every swirl of wind and puff of cloud in the Atlantic, and, friends, it’s so bad… we’re now monitoring tropical waves in Chad. Yes, Chad. A landlocked country. That’s where we are. We’ve deployed our most advanced meteorological tools, consulted every weather model, and even stared meaningfully into the middle distance — nothing. These storms have been as thrilling as a DMV waiting room with no Wi-Fi. So, I urge everyone to remain calm, stay informed, and maybe bring a book. Because if things keep going like this, our next ‘storm of interest’ will be a cumulonimbus over Saskatchewan.

[BarryStantonGBP]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing 
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow 
development of this system is possible next week while the system 
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and 
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[GaWx]

0Z UK had it again and it’s stronger (TS) though it’s further N:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 22.0N 54.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.08.2025 132 22.0N 54.6W 1010 30
0000UTC 15.08.2025 144 23.3N 57.2W 1009 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 156 25.5N 59.1W 1007 41
0000UTC 16.08.2025 168 26.8N 61.6W 1006 44

[GaWx]

 The 6Z GEFS is similar to prior runs. Though it’s still very early, the overall consensus in the last few runs of models/ensembles seems to me to be suggesting a better chance of a safe recurve from the Conus vs a hit with the Gulf having an even lower threat than the E coast. The faster the development in the E ATL, the lower the US hit chance I believe, especially with a relatively high latitude MDR track progged by the models. If OTOH development is slow the next few days, that could portend at least a higher E coast hit chance.

[BarryStantonGBP]

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 6Z GEFS is similar to prior runs. Though it’s still very early, the overall consensus in the last few runs of models/ensembles seems to me to be suggesting a better chance of a safe recurve from the Conus vs a hit with the Gulf having an even lower threat than the E coast. The faster the development in the E ATL, the lower the US hit chance I believe, especially with a relatively high latitude MDR track progged by the models. If OTOH development is slow the next few days, that could portend at least a higher E coast hit chance.

OI LAD

WE HAVE A MAGALUF LAD NOW 

0/40 AND ORANGE

IT’S COMING HOME

A tropical wave that has now emerged offshore the west coast of

Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and

thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual

development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by

the middle to latter portion of next week while it moves

west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central

tropical Atlantic. Locally heavy rainfall is possible Sunday and

Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[BarryStantonGBP]

@GaWx she might think American tourism isn’t her cup of tea 

[WxWatcher007]

Good spin but as you can see from the size of the wave it is probably going to take a little time to consolidate. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

OI LADS LEZAK HAS SPOKEN GTFIH

BAM BAM BAM

LADS

[WxWatcher007]

Well we shall see if the prophet is right.

Now designated as Invest 97L.

[BarryStantonGBP]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well we shall see if the prophet is right.

Now designated as Invest 97L.

97LLLLLL

BAM BAM BAM

SCORE SOME FAKKIN GOALS LASS

Invest 97L
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 09, 2025:
 

Location: 10.1°N 17.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 90 nm

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm watching that 60W/20N spot. Storms that pass north of it stay out to sea almost all the time, barring some major H5 +anomaly over the top. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm watching that 60W/20N spot. Storms that pass north of it stay out to sea almost all the time, barring some major H5 +anomaly over the top. 

LORENZO INNIT

I’m thinking she might turn into the Carolinas last minute but idk lad

[TheDreamTraveler]

Finally something worthwhile to track

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

0Z UK had it again and it’s stronger (TS) though it’s further N:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 22.0N 54.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.08.2025 132 22.0N 54.6W 1010 30
0000UTC 15.08.2025 144 23.3N 57.2W 1009 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 156 25.5N 59.1W 1007 41
0000UTC 16.08.2025 168 26.8N 61.6W 1006 44

12Z UK: still has a TS but delayed vs 0Z and not as far N moving WNW at 168:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 20.5N  51.3W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 14.08.2025  120  21.1N  53.2W     1011            29
    0000UTC 15.08.2025  132  22.3N  56.9W     1011            27
    1200UTC 15.08.2025  144  23.4N  59.6W     1009            30
    0000UTC 16.08.2025  156  24.7N  62.1W     1008            34
    1200UTC 16.08.2025  168  26.0N  64.3W     1006            42

[GaWx]

But 12Z CMC, like its recent runs, is significantly further S at 171 (just ENE of PR) with it again much weaker than other models at 1003 mb. It isn’t recurving as it is underneath an extensive H5 ridge:

 

Edit: ends up near Andros I. moving NW toward FL.

[TampaMan]

2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

OI LADS LEZAK HAS SPOKEN GTFIH

BAM BAM BAM

LADS

NC/SC target wouldn't be good for anyone. Especially after those in Western NC last year around this same time. Hope it just shoots up North. 

[WxWatcher007]

You could tell pretty early that the 12z Euro would be OTS. All just noise at this point. No model is going to nail the strength of ridges/troughs and the placement of weaknesses at this range.