OBS-Discussion Today and Sunday (7/25 and 7/27) isolated scattered SVR-FF storms-especially NJ-LI

[wdrag]

Potency continues for two events... MAY? add up to an isolated 5" storm today by Sunday night along with damaging wind-power outages-local detours.

Follow NWS warning products.

SPC has a slight risk for SVR today and nothing for Sunday which (imo only) may be underplayed for NJ on Sunday..

WPC has marginal risk for FF this afternoon-evening, again Saturday night-Sunday.

Today: Large low level lapse rates may make up for lack of deep instability in a 95-100F max temp environment this afternoon. Fairly progressive sewd  moving event but PW around 2" suggests wet microbursts mainly 4P-8P

Sunday: low pressure focuses lift Sunday in a potentially more widespread FF event, especially NJ-LI.  While instability a little less, the convergence with PWAT almost 2.4" may more than compensate. 

Be alert traveling late today and Sunday and have alternate plans for delays. 

Note: There might be late Saturday afternoon heavy showers in north central NJ s of i80 but the real deal is Sunday midnight-3PM. 

I have not included Tuesday's severe potential---in another thread early next week if my assessment is correct. 

 

[Stormlover74]

3knam has some big storms after 5pm although they do tend to weaken thereafter 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

3knam has some big storms after 5pm although they do tend to weaken thereafter 

they'll come in before that, probably by 4 pm and end by 6 pm

[steve392]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

they'll come in before that, probably by 4 pm and end by 6 pm

Radar will probably look incredible but fizzle to nothing as it approaches my area. 

[IrishRob17]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0542.html

[IrishRob17]

.12 from a small cell that popped near my house.

[allgame830]

That storm near Binghamton looks like it could go severe 

[forkyfork]

those sussex co cells are aimed at the metro. poor plainfield 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

those sussex co cells are aimed at the metro. poor plainfield 

Maybe they are quick moving and won't last long?

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe they are quick moving and won't last long?

They are and they're aimed at places north of 78 right now. The other batch in PA we'll see.  But quick moving doesn’t matter if they have 70 mph winds

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

They are and they're aimed at places north of 78 right now. The other batch in PA we'll see

that western cell is building south and i can see the outflow surging south on tewr

[forkyfork]

[winterwx21]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They are and they're aimed at places north of 78 right now. The other batch in PA we'll see.  But quick moving doesn’t matter if they have 70 mph winds

Yeah it appears that severe cell in Morris is gonna miss us just to the north, but it's a close call. I want some heavy rain but of course we don't want severe winds again after what we went through. 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it appears that severe cell in Morris is gonna miss us just to the north, but it's a close call. I want some heavy rain but of course we don't want severe winds again after what we went through. 

Upton issued a sws for 40 mph winds

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Upton issued a sws for 40 mph winds

It's gonna be very close. We'll have to see if it keeps building south as Forky mentioned. It's possible it just misses me but clips you a few miles to my north in Plainfield. 

[qg_omega]

Severe warning issued

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It's gonna be very close. We'll have to see if it keeps building south as Forky mentioned. It's possible it just misses me but clips you a few miles to my north in Plainfield. 

Was upgraded to a warning by upton

[winterwx21]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Was upgraded to a warning by upton

Yep. I get nervous with these cells that drop from northwest to southeast. They tend to give us our strongest winds like the one that happened on July 3rd. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep. I get nervous with these cells that drop from northwest to southeast. They tend to give us our strongest winds like the one that happened on July 3rd. 

Still looks like up by summit and essex get the worst of it

[Stormlover74]

The southern part of the line is intensifying a bit

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Still looks like up by summit and essex get the worst of it

Yeah it certainly appears that the worst is gonna miss just to the north, but keeping a close eye on radar in case that changes. 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

The southern part of the line is intensifying a bit

I might even get clipped here if it keeps building south. 

[steve392]

Cell developedto my North and other went to my south.  Literally split between storms. 

[Stormlover74]

Hudson NJ-Union NJ-Essex NJ-Queens NY-Richmond NY-Kings NY-
New York (Manhattan) NY-Nassau NY-
326 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR HUDSON...UNION...ESSEX...QUEENS...RICHMOND...KINGS...NEW YORK
(MANHATTAN) AND SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTIES...

At 324 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Bloomfield to Florham Park to near Far Hills,
moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings

[allgame830]

Storms starting to fire North and Northwest of the city 

[winterwarlock]

Literally a 2 minute shower though half the sky is clear and blue

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I might even get clipped here if it keeps building south. 

Definitely intensifying now ugh

[forkyfork]

just saw two trees come down

[steve392]

Lots of thunder all around me.  9 degree temp drop. 

[Cyg]

Heavy rain here in New Providence with some thunder. Strong gusts at the start, but luckily no tree damage by me.

 

Edit: winding down with sun quickly coming out.