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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability


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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

where? I saw a report of 0.88 on the south shore in Nassau County and 1.09 inches at JFK, there was a report of 2.09 inches in southern Queens, we definitely got much more than 0.5, maybe less in Suffolk County, but we had a lot more than that here.  I saw large puddles and even flowing water on my street between 7-8 am when it was still raining hard.

Only .5 to .6 from Massapequa out along the South Shore Suffolk. It was another case of the 1.00”+ totals staying closer to the North Shore like we often see this time of year. Remember it was August last year when LI got the 10 inch plus totals. So the 6 inch plus totals stayed to our west.  Even here on the CT Shore hardly  got much as the lawns are beginning to turn brown here. 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Only .5 to .6 from Massapequa out into the South Shore Suffolk. It was another case of the 1.00”+ totals staying closer to the North Shore like we often see this time of year. Remember it was August last year when LI got the 10 inch plus totals.

also western part of the south shore, check out the area from around Jamaica Bay to Valley Stream and Lynbrook, those areas saw around an inch or a little more than that.

Massapequa is SE Nassau about 20 miles east of here (the same distance that Manhattan is west of here lol.)

 

 

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Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Zooming in a bit.

gyonrUw.png

it's up in the mountains? that's topographically impossible it should be at least 5 degrees cooler than the surrounding areas because of elevation.  The 103 104 and 106 east of there are more reasonable because they're east of the mountains and downsloping will heat up the air east of the elevated area.

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

also western part of the south shore, check out the area from around Jamaica Bay to Valley Stream and Lynbrook, those areas saw around an inch or a little more than that.

Massapequa is SE Nassau about 20 miles east of here (the same distance that Manhattan is west of here lol.)

 

 

Those amounts along the South Shore dropped off very quickly to the east of Queens. Same up here where I got very little on the CT Shoreline and more to my NW. The lawns and grassy areas around the airport here have begun turning brown up here. The rains usually reach the South Shore areas a little later in time.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Those amounts along the South Shore dropped off very quickly to the east of Queens. Same up here where I got very little on the CT Shoreline and more to my NW. The lawns and grassy areas around the airport here have begun turning brown up here.

It reminds me of the March 1993 superstorm.  JFK got 12 inches (actually more than Central Park by 1 inch), Oceanside, close to where I am got 10 inches..... but Massapequa only got 6 inches.  Divide all of these by 10 (like liquid equivalent lol) and that was the rain total from this storm!

Brown, really? Everything is still green here lol.

 

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It reminds me of the March 1993 superstorm.  JFK got 12 inches (actually more than Central Park by 1 inch), Oceanside, close to where I am got 10 inches..... but Massapequa only got 6 inches.

Brown, really? Everything is still green here lol.

 

Yeah, each day I walk around the Tweed airport just to my west. The vegetation and grassy areas around have gradually been turning brown last few weeks. Par for the course with the dry pattern and record heat since June 1st. We have generally had under 3 inches since June 1st. The 6 days reaching 90° since June 1st is 2nd highest here from June 1st to July 14th.

June 1st to July 14th Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
2025-07-14 2.80 0
2024-07-14 6.36 0
2023-07-14 5.29 1
2022-07-14 2.45 0
2021-07-14 7.73 0
2020-07-14 3.97 0
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Looks like the water temperature at the Buffalo crib site (water intake for the city of Buffalo) on Lake Erie reached a scorching 77F this morning, which exceeds the daily record by 1F (continuous record since 1927). Keep in mind, this reading comes from a depth of 30 or 40 feet below the water surface, so the nearshore temperature could be several degrees higher.

139
FZUS51 KBUF 151403
NSHBUF

Nearshore Marine Forecast
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1003 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

For waters within five nautical miles of shore

Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

LEZ020-152100-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1003 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.THIS AFTERNOON...Light and variable winds. Sunny.
.TONIGHT...Light and variable winds. Mainly clear.
.WEDNESDAY...South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of
showers overnight.
.THURSDAY...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest.
Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
.FRIDAY...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable.
Mostly cloudy, then clearing.
.SATURDAY...Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming south. A
chance of showers Saturday night.

Winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

The water temperature off Buffalo is 77 degrees.

 

akrVTYj.png

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2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looks like the water temperature at the Buffalo crib site (water intake for the city of Buffalo) on Lake Erie reached a scorching 77F this morning, which exceeds the daily record by 1F (continuous record since 1927). Keep in mind, this reading comes from a depth of 30 or 40 feet below the water surface, so the nearshore temperature could be several degrees higher.

139
FZUS51 KBUF 151403
NSHBUF

Nearshore Marine Forecast
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1003 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

For waters within five nautical miles of shore

Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

LEZ020-152100-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1003 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.THIS AFTERNOON...Light and variable winds. Sunny.
.TONIGHT...Light and variable winds. Mainly clear.
.WEDNESDAY...South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of
showers overnight.
.THURSDAY...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest.
Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
.FRIDAY...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable.
Mostly cloudy, then clearing.
.SATURDAY...Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming south. A
chance of showers Saturday night.

Winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

The water temperature off Buffalo is 77 degrees.

 

akrVTYj.png

The all-time record high is 80F, set on July 25, 2011, August 4, 2011, and August 14-16, 1988. I think that could be the next domino to fall.

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, each day I walk around the Tweed airport just to my west. The vegetation and grassy areas around have gradually been turning brown last few weeks. Par for the course with the dry pattern and record heat since June 1st. We have generally had under 3 inches since June 1st. The 6 days reaching 90° since June 1st is 2nd highest here from June 1st to July 14th.

June 1st to July 14th Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
2025-07-14 2.80 0
2024-07-14 6.36 0
2023-07-14 5.29 1
2022-07-14 2.45 0
2021-07-14 7.73 0
2020-07-14 3.97 0

Have you seen a radar estimate map of rainfall? From what I just saw on WABC7, the green area (one inch of rainfall) extends to about halfway out in Nassau County on the south shore (to around Freeport I'd estimate), and then there's an area of 2 inches plus in southern Queens that extends down to Broad Channel and out to the Rockaway Peninsula.  So this area is just to the east of that, so based on that I'd estimate we got between 1-2 inches of rain near Oceanside, probably closer to 1 inch.

The south shore of eastern Nassau county had less than one inch (once you get east of Freeport.)

 

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, each day I walk around the Tweed airport just to my west. The vegetation and grassy areas around have gradually been turning brown last few weeks. Par for the course with the dry pattern and record heat since June 1st. We have generally had under 3 inches since June 1st. The 6 days reaching 90° since June 1st is 2nd highest here from June 1st to July 14th.

June 1st to July 14th Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
2025-07-14 2.80 0
2024-07-14 6.36 0
2023-07-14 5.29 1
2022-07-14 2.45 0
2021-07-14 7.73 0
2020-07-14 3.97 0

Yes June really baked, which is ironic because it started cool and rainy lol.

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

July 22-23 2011 had the most extreme heat I had ever seen until June 24-25 2025.

 

Wow! Hopefully, these superheated lake and sea surface conditions add enough moisture to the atmosphere to keep such high temperatures at bay for the next heat dome!

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Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow! Hopefully, these superheated lake and sea surface conditions add enough moisture to the atmosphere to keep such high temperatures at bay for the next heat dome!

No I'd much rather have westerly flow dry heat lol.

the high humidity crap is disgusting, we need some geoengineering projects asap to remove both water vapor and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

water vapor can be converted to drinking water and the carbon dioxide can be deposited into sinks.

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

We need to remove both CO2 AND water vapor from the atmosphere, we're in an emergency situation and removing CO2 or stopping fossil fuels (which won't happen in our lifetimes) won't be enough, water vapor needs to be taken out of the atmosphere too.  And with the melting of the ice caps the emergency will only accelerate.  

 

Yeah, the number of these extreme rainfalls and flooding have been steadily increasing across the entire planet. Some areas which are more arid have been experiencing rapid swings between extreme  drought and flooding as the water cycle accelerates. So on the list of concerns flooding will rank very high in a much warmer world. 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No I'd much rather have westerly flow dry heat lol.

the high humidity crap is disgusting, we need some geoengineering projects asap to remove both water vapor and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

water vapor can be converted to drinking water and the carbon dioxide can be deposited into sinks.

 

This is a good point. In Texas and out west, they are fighting climate change by seeding the hell out of all of their clouds. I don't know why they don't implement a rain depletion program in the east. Like yesterday was a disaster waiting to happen with those slow-moving heavy thunderstorms. Then, it's like - oh no, the subway is flooding... the NJ Turnpike is submerged! I wonder if they could have zapped the clouds with directed electromagnetic energy or laser beams to heat the surrounding atmosphere up, potentially weakening the advancing storm system? Has there been any research into this?

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9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The all-time record high is 80F, set on July 25, 2011, August 4, 2011, and August 14-16, 1988. I think that could be the next domino to fall.

There is an upstate NY forum that might be interested in Buffalo water temps.  

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55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it will be interesting if the high can get strong enough again later in the summer to overpower the ocean and create another westerly flow pattern.

Not sure yet at this point. But past instances of widespread 100° heat followed by 5”+ deluges usually didn’t have more widespread 100°s from NJ out to Suffolk. But it wouldn’t take much for some scattered 100° heat for the usual warm spots in NJ. 

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20 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This is a good point. In Texas and out west, they are fighting climate change by seeding the hell out of all of their clouds. I don't know why they don't implement a rain depletion program in the east. Like yesterday was a disaster waiting to happen with those slow-moving heavy thunderstorms. Then, it's like - oh no, the subway is flooding... the NJ Turnpike is submerged! I wonder if they could have zapped the clouds with directed electromagnetic energy or laser beams to heat the surrounding atmosphere up, potentially weakening the advancing storm system? Has there been any research into this?

well if we can remove water vapor before it builds up to the point of a deluge, it's like defusing a bomb....

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the number of these extreme rainfalls and flooding have been steadily increasing across the entire planet. Some areas which are more arid have been experiencing rapid swings between extreme  drought and flooding as the water cycle accelerates. So on the list of concerns flooding will rank very high in a much warmer world. 

I knew we had a lot of rain here, now we're under a flood advisory and it includes Oceanside, Atlantic Beach, Long Beach, Freeport, Massapequa, Bellmore, etc.

 

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31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No I'd much rather have westerly flow dry heat lol.

the high humidity crap is disgusting, we need some geoengineering projects asap to remove both water vapor and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

water vapor can be converted to drinking water and the carbon dioxide can be deposited into sinks.

 

84/34 out here in Denver.  Going to be 96 today but should feel great. Heading north into fall like weather soon 

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