June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don't the higher number of 85 degrees point to a more true tropical climate, there a lot of cities near the Equator that have this kind of climate, and also a lot of bugs-- ticks, spiders, mosquitoes, parasitic flies like the Tsetse Fly, leeches, etc.  Are we going to start seeing  exotic vermin on our shores and in our homes soon?

 

Yeah, at least during the warm season when the dew points frequently get over 70°. The 75°+ dew points number is nearly as high as the Delmarva used to get before 2010. One of the biggest risks is flash flooding since a warmer atmosphere holds moisture.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, at least during the warm season when the dew points frequently get over 70°. The 75°+ dew points number is nearly as high as the Delmarva used to get before 2010. One of the biggest risks is flash flooding since a warmer atmosphere holds moisture.

I've noticed a high number of ants outside my house, and I've read reports where there is a lot of flash flooding in the South there are a lot of ants, fire ants are a HUGE problem there.  So this is something else which is now overpopulating.

[TheClimateChanger]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought Watts Up With That is a climate change skeptic site though?

 

Yes, it is, but I never figured out how this research was supposed to suggest less warming. Assuming the findings are robust, given the number of rooftop stations was much greater decades ago, wouldn't that suggest that U.S. temperature changes are actually greater than reported, not less?

[TheClimateChanger]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The atmosphere was much drier in those days than it is now. So even though the background pattern wasn’t as warm, it was easier near the shore with westerly flow to reach 100° from time to time. So extended 90° heatwaves were easier to achieve. This is why we haven’t had a 20 day official heatwave around the region since 1988. 

While the overall summer temperatures have been on the rise, the high end 100°+ heat has been missing since 2013 due to all the onshore flow and rain. Plus the higher dewpoints allow the 70° minimums to increase at faster rate than the 90° maximums. Also notice how much faster the 85°day count is increasing above the 90° day count. This is pointing to a much more humid climate with more clouds and showers. Higher dew points also prevent the overnight lows from dropping as low as they used to.

 

 

 

 

Mean summertime high temperatures have risen by 2-3F since 1990. If that trend continues, average summer highs should reach the upper 80s around NYC by 2050, by which time, there should be a marked increase in the number of 90F days [similar to the observed increase in 85F days over the past several decades].

[winterwarlock]

Another miserable day..4th day in a row

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Yes, it is, but I never figured out how this research was supposed to suggest less warming. Assuming the findings are robust, given the number of rooftop stations was much greater decades ago, wouldn't that suggest that U.S. temperature changes are actually greater than reported, not less?

I like rooftop stations I think they more accurately reflected the true climate rather than these ASOS stations.  I've had thermometers (both digital and liquid) since 1986 and my temperatures matched rooftop stations more accurately than these ASOS stations.

An example from last Saturday.  I'm about 5 miles east of JFK.  We cleared out at 4 pm and were clear until 6 PM. JFK ASOS reported *mostly cloudy* the entire time.  When the skies cleared out our temperatures got a nice boost into the mid 80s.  But JFK flatlined around 75 degrees.  We were 10 degrees warmer than JFK at 85!  Now, some might say, exposure to sunlight caused a higher reading for me, except my inside thermometers also experienced a boost well away from any sunlight and matched my outside sensors (plus I keep my temperature monitoring sensors on the north side of my home.)

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Mean summertime high temperatures have risen by 2-3F since 1990. If that trend continues, average summer highs should reach the upper 80s around NYC by 2050, by which time, there should be a marked increase in the number of 90F days [similar to the observed increase in 85F days over the past several decades].

Hopefully an increase in 95 and 100 degree days too even with onshore flow (with higher SST.)

[FPizz]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Another miserable day..4th day in a row

This afternoon might be decent, but this morning has sucked.  .83"

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The atmosphere was much drier in those days than it is now. So even though the background pattern wasn’t as warm, it was easier near the shore with westerly flow to reach 100° from time to time. So extended 90° heatwaves were easier to achieve. This is why we haven’t had a 20 day official heatwave around the region since 1988. 

While the overall summer temperatures have been on the rise, the high end 100°+ heat has been missing since 2013 due to all the onshore flow and rain. Plus the higher dewpoints allow the 70° minimums to increase at faster rate than the 90° maximums. Also notice how much faster the 85°day count is increasing above the 90° day count. This is pointing to a much more humid climate with more clouds and showers. Higher dew points also prevent the overnight lows from dropping as low as they used to.

 

 

 

 

Chris, we've had a 20 day heatwave? It must be at Newark since our longest heatwave was in 1953 and September's all time record high (102) is from that year.  1953 was historic for number of 100+ days (4) and length of heatwave (12).

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I like rooftop stations I think they more accurately reflected the true climate rather than these ASOS stations.  I've had thermometers (both digital and liquid) since 1986 and my temperatures matched rooftop stations more accurately than these ASOS stations.

An example from last Saturday.  I'm about 5 miles east of JFK.  We cleared out at 4 pm and were clear until 6 PM. JFK ASOS reported *mostly cloudy* the entire time.  When the skies cleared out our temperatures got a nice boost into the mid 80s.  But JFK flatlined around 75 degrees.  We were 10 degrees warmer than JFK at 85!  Now, some might say, exposure to sunlight caused a higher reading for me, except my inside thermometers also experienced a boost well away from any sunlight and matched my outside sensors (plus I keep my temperature monitoring sensors on the north side of my home.)

An example from yesteryear.

In July 1993 (on the 9th if I remember correctly), I recorded a high of 102.  JFK recorded 101.  This was in the era before ASOS and the numbers matched.

 

 

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I like rooftop stations I think they more accurately reflected the true climate rather than these ASOS stations.  I've had thermometers (both digital and liquid) since 1986 and my temperatures matched rooftop stations more accurately than these ASOS stations.

An example from last Saturday.  I'm about 5 miles east of JFK.  We cleared out at 4 pm and were clear until 6 PM. JFK ASOS reported *mostly cloudy* the entire time.  When the skies cleared out our temperatures got a nice boost into the mid 80s.  But JFK flatlined around 75 degrees.  We were 10 degrees warmer than JFK at 85!  Now, some might say, exposure to sunlight caused a higher reading for me, except my inside thermometers also experienced a boost well away from any sunlight and matched my outside sensors (plus I keep my temperature monitoring sensors on the north side of my home.)

The issue with rooftop stations is that the temperatures generally decline with height unless there is an inversion. We see this with the new micronet stations and BNL which have sensors at multiple heights. So the higher sensors usually run cooler than 2m unless there is a radiational cooling inversion.

You have to remember that JFK ASOS is in a marshy area right on the bay. So a few miles makes a big difference especially when the sea breeze is restricted within a mile or two of the ocean or bay. The ASOS could be 85° on the water while the areas a few miles north are 90°. I saw this all the time growing up in Long Beach.

[SACRUS]

25 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Another miserable day..4th day in a row

 

3 day reprieve with maybe some 90 degree readings in NJ (Thursday) then a 4 days / 96 hours of mainly cloudy conditions stretch again Sat - Tue.   When was the last good ol fashioned zonal flow - I remember those TWC forecast maps

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The issue with rooftop stations is that the temperatures generally decline with height unless there is an inversion. We see this with the new micronet stations and BNL which have sensors at multiple heights. So the higher sensors usually run cooler than 2m unless there is a radiational cooling inversion.

You have to remember that JFK ASOS is in a marshy area right on the bay. So a few miles makes a big difference especially when the sea breeze is restricted within a mile or two of the ocean or bay. The ASOS could be 85° on the water while the areas a few miles north are 90° I saw this all the time growing up in Long Beach.

Did you ever have a situation where JFK was cooler than Long Beach, Chris? It does happen to me quite a bit, I just chalked it up to living in a more urban environment than where JFK is located.

What's the height at which the higher stations run cooler than 2m?  Would a sensor on or near the roof of a 2 story home be significantly cooler than a sensor at 2m? 2 stories = 20 feet or approximately 6m.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

3 day reprieve with maybe some 90 degree readings in NJ (Thursday) then a 4 days / 96 hours of mainly cloudy conditions stretch again Sat - Tue.   When was the last good ol fashioned zonal flow - I remember those TWC forecast maps

 

 

Looks like the south shore might be near 90 on Thursday too, so far my projected high is 88 for that day.

[steve392]

Thank God for this rain.  Was afraid the mud might become dehydrated... Sheesh

[SACRUS]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

An example from yesteryear.

In July 1993 (on the 9th if I remember correctly), I recorded a high of 102.  JFK recorded 101.  This was in the era before ASOS and the numbers matched.

 

 

15 of JFK's July record highs occurred from 2000 - 2024 including 2 back to back 99 degree readings in 2019.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, steve392 said:

Thank God for this rain.  Was afraid the mud might become dehydrated... Sheesh

It wasn't supposed to be raining here after 12 noon but it is and raining pretty hard too.

I see the projected clearing line has been pushed back from 3 pm to 8 pm so we might clear just in time for sunset (it would make for a gorgeous sunset if that happened.)

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SACRUS said:

15 of JFK's July record highs occurred from 2000 - 2024 including 2 back to back 99 degree readings in 2019.

Yes, but most of those are from the 2010-2013 period though which is when we had a bonanza of 100+ days.

That 2019 period was very memorable for having the highest heat index (117) that JFK has ever seen.

 

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like the only day of rain with that next storm will be Saturday.

 

Looks like rain is possible Sun/Monday as well.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

Looks like rain is possible Sun/Monday as well.

it's low, around 20% probability.

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, but most of those are from the 2010-2013 period though which is when we had a bonanza of 100+ days.

That 2019 period was very memorable for having the highest heat index (117) that JFK has ever seen.

 

Yes I was pointing out there wasn't high concentration in other period like this period. 

[SACRUS]

Just hard to clear out with an onshore wind component E/ENE still.  Like silly puddy

 

 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Did you ever have a situation where JFK was cooler than Long Beach, Chris? It does happen to me quite a bit, I just chalked it up to living in a more urban environment than where JFK is located.

What's the height at which the higher stations run cooler than 2m?  Would a sensor on or near the roof of a 2 story home be significantly cooler than a sensor at 2m? 2 stories = 20 feet or approximately 6m.

The amount of cooling can vary depending on the conditions. But the current 9mT in Wantagh is 0.7° cooler than the 2m. So a NYC taller building roof top could be significantly cooler than 2m.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Yesterday's departures 6/9

 

LGA: 64 / 61 (-8)
NYC: 64 / 62 (-7)
EWR: 67 / 62 (-6)
JFK: 66 / 62 (-4)

[wdrag]

On 6/7/2025 at 7:08 AM, wdrag said:

Looks wet at times, daily through Tue... added the Prob of >0.01 from wet 00z/7 EPS and drier GEFS.  I wouldn't promise anyone a dry Sunday afternoon-night...  just by natural, albeit weakening northeastward ejection of the lead short wave, I would think rain would impact. our area later Sunday.

When to mow if you didnt yesterday...  for me up here, window of opportunity 4P today to 2P Sunday. Attached probs.

Next chance of 90 interior seems next Thu-Fri though ensembles dont play it up.  Very rapid warming again after the trough aloft our area Tue-Wed lifts northward, similar to this past Wed-Fri. 

 

Will add first week CF6 for Newark tomorrow morning. 

Briefly reviewed...  GEFS/EPS Blend would have been best as it rained through most of Nj but mainly sprits LI. 

[wdrag]

Also: fwiw..  ECAI had this mornings NJ rain nailed every cycle back to 174 hours per Trop Tidbits "prior version" 6 hrs ending 12z.  GFS Op was not quite as consistent. If interested, take a look.  This rain impacted outdoor activities this morning in NNJ. 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I guess you could call it a flash drought, I've noticed these are becoming more common.

I liked that we finally got a month with zero rainfall lol.

 

Remember the insane amount of fires we had during the fall. For a couple months it was just about the driest weather I've ever seen. It was a tinderbox out there. It wasn't a tremendously long drought, but it was a severe one. 

[winterwx21]

Had a few heavy downpours. 0.58" here.

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Mean summertime high temperatures have risen by 2-3F since 1990. If that trend continues, average summer highs should reach the upper 80s around NYC by 2050, by which time, there should be a marked increase in the number of 90F days [similar to the observed increase in 85F days over the past several decades].

The average high temperatures during July 2022 were in the low 90s at many spots in NJ.

Monthly Data for July 2022 for New Jersey
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	92.1
Newark Area	ThreadEx	92.1
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	92.1
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	91.5
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	91.4
CANOE BROOK	COOP	91.4
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	91.4
HARRISON	COOP	91.0
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	90.5
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	90.5

[Sundog]

22 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Thank God for this rain.  Was afraid the mud might become dehydrated... Sheesh

Won't someone think of the mud!