Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Holy crap what model had the rain this far west? Did they literally all drop the ball? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Left for work and was like "why is it so dam dark to my north and northwest". Look at radar and was like ohhhhhhhhhh. 74 and crazy humid at home, 70 and same at work. Bugs, no idea what flying everywhere getting in eyes and mouth just walking to work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Sundog said: Holy crap what model had the rain this far west? Did they literally all drop the ball? weather forecasters have been dropping the ball for awhile now they cant even predict what the weather could be a day in advance.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago good i hope the city does not hit 90 today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, steve392 said: Left for work and was like "why is it so dam dark to my north and northwest". Look at radar and was like ohhhhhhhhhh. 74 and crazy humid at home, 70 and same at work. Bugs, no idea what flying everywhere getting in eyes and mouth just walking to work. So much for the supposedly reliable Euro having this rain pass through Northern New England hahahaha What a garbage model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Gotta be effin kidding me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, Sundog said: So much for the supposedly reliable Euro having this rain pass through Northern New England hahahaha What a garbage model Future radar has nenj right in the crosshairs for the heavy stuff. Just what we needed....more rain LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Gotta be effin kidding me This is one of the greatest short term busts we've seen in a while. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 20 minutes ago, Sundog said: Holy crap what model had the rain this far west? Did they literally all drop the ball? HRRR and all the news channel future casts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 0z Euro doesn't have a drop of rain in central NY, all of Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Hahahahahaha Even if all of it vaporized right now it is an amazing bust for only a few hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 15 minutes ago, Sundog said: So much for the supposedly reliable Euro having this rain pass through Northern New England hahahaha What a garbage model GFS much better than Euro, funny abc7 future cast for past few days had this perfect for days, what model is that? GRAF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: HRRR and all the news channel future casts HRRR only has some rain in the last few hours runs. If you go back a few runs it had the rain much further north and east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago i was planning on going out around 10:00am should i need my umbrella? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: GFS much better than Euro, funny abc7 future cast for past few days had this perfect for days, what model is that? GRAF? I don't know, I'm also not saying that batch will slam NYC, honestly it will probably fizzle out on the way down. But this is definitely not the forecast the models had for Southern New England and NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago @forkyfork 12z GFS from last Monday had the right idea: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Global models are not designed to track MCS systems. Maybe if they get closer to convection allowing resolutions. So this is par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I mean, the one hour hrrr was off by at least a hundred miles. Thats batshit. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Global models are not designed to track MCS systems. Maybe if they get closer to convection allowing resolutions. So this is par for the course. The higher resolution models dropped the ball too. Just a poor job all around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 minutes ago, BxEngine said: I mean, the one hour hrrr was off by at least a hundred miles. Thats batshit. The 6z NAM and RGEM are literally 300 miles off with the rain. 6z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Sundog said: The higher resolution models dropped the ball too. Just a poor job all around. The only good news is that it will dampen the high temperature potential today a bit. But I think Tuesday is still on track to be one of our warmest days of the 2020s. Even models that show the convection are still in the 102° to 105° range Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 23 minutes ago, nycwinter said: i was planning on going out around 10:00am should i need my umbrella? You might need a hoodie...maybe a ski mask? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Not surprising to see a MCS ahead of the heat dome. Could help ramp up the dews heading into Mon-Tues so higher heat indices. But yes today's high temp potential will probably get capped at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago just finds a way to rain on the weekends-what a bust! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Nailed it! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: The only good news is that it will dampen the high temperature potential today a bit. But I think Tuesday is still on track to be one of our warmest days of the 2020s. Even models that show the convection are still in the 102° to 105° range Tuesday. Not seeing 100s at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, qg_omega said: Not seeing 100s at all especially with yet another round of rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Showers here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Wtf is this crap going to be at the beaches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Not seeing 100s at all While that’s a nice thought, one little MCS today won’t influence the 100° potential in the coming days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago What complete trash from models and nws Why do we readily accept this kind of failure in forecasting within 24 hours out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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