June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what about the burnt fields of cotton?

 

Just ran that by it. It suggests a combination of temperatures near 110F, 75 mph winds and extremely low relatively humidity likely desiccated the crops. It suggests such conditions could wilt and brown the corn, causing drought or freeze-like damage to the crop. The strong winds would have also damaged the crop and caused more heat damage than would occur in a still atmosphere.

[Sundog]

Euro still 106 on Tuesday for the city

[Sundog]

Euro has 92/72 for 2AM Wednesday morning for the city haha

[SACRUS]

 

Up to 68 - 70 in reach 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, Sundog said:

How would that even happen? Doesn't cotton burn at a temperature similar to paper? Like 400+ degrees?

no idea but it might be a combination of heat + dryness

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Euro has 92/72 for 2AM Wednesday morning for the city haha

now thats hot!!

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Just ran that by it. It suggests a combination of temperatures near 110F, 75 mph winds and extremely low relatively humidity likely desiccated the crops. It suggests such conditions could wilt and brown the corn, causing drought or freeze-like damage to the crop. The strong winds would have also damaged the crop and caused more heat damage than would occur in a still atmosphere.

Yes this is what I was thinking!!

heat+dryness

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Euro still 106 on Tuesday for the city

we're going to need that to get everyone to join the 100+ party

[wdrag]

3 hours ago, MANDA said:

Love this post.  Measured and level headed.  I am wary about temperatures peaking much over 100 myself, especially this far in advance.  As Walt stated much can interrupt and it has been quite wet lately.  Bigger issue for me will be HI readings possibly 105-110 with higher than usual dews possible for a W / WNW heat event.  We'll see but high temperatures of 105+ are very suspect to me.

 

Have briefly scanned 12z EC... unbelievable next week.  Just have to play it conservative but as above ... am in agreement. 

 

My north Jersey senior softball (age 60-68 and 69-80+) for Tue morning... probably 250 players idled for the second Tue in a row by wet ground.  Next week, heat warning may preclude a second game at 1130A and just a 10A.

just for the fun of it. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

but we don't know how reliable those thermometers are or if they meet NWS criteria, it's like reading snowfall reports from  a PNS. Plus for the heat to actually be historic it should cover more of the area like it did in 2010 and 2011.

The only ground station in our area at 2m that doesn’t meet NWS criteria is Central Park. 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only ground station in our area at 2m that doesn’t meet NWS criteria is Central Park. 

we need to look at some of these other sensors to see if they have any exposure to the sun and are properly sited too.

 

[IrishRob17]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we need to look at some of these other sensors to see if they have any exposure to the sun and are properly sited too.

 

Didn't you say the other day that you have one near your roof?

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Didn't you say the other day that you have one near your roof?

Yes, I put it on the north side to keep it as far away from sunlight as possible, but it still recorded 93.7 last Thursday so I used the average of all four sensors (90.0 to 93.7) and came up with a high of 92 for that day.

[Sundog]

12z EURO AI keeps the worst of the heat in NJ. 

How is the AI model different than the regular one and how has it performed temp wise in the past?

[psv88]

68 and mist. Another day where it’s 15 degrees warmer in Quebec 

[bluewave]

The GFS and Euro both have 100° heat away from the sea breeze next Monday through Wednesday. So it would be the first time for places like Newark to get 3 days in a row reaching 100° in June. The previous all-time June record was 2 days in a row back in June 2021. The all-time record for any month was 5 days in a row in July 2022.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 100 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	5	2022-07-20 through 2022-07-24
2	4	2010-07-04 through 2010-07-07
-	4	1993-07-07 through 1993-07-10
-	4	1953-08-28 through 1953-08-31
3	3	2011-07-21 through 2011-07-23
-	3	2006-08-01 through 2006-08-03
-	3	2001-08-07 through 2001-08-09
-	3	1966-07-02 through 1966-07-04
-	3	1949-08-09 through 1949-08-11
-	3	1949-07-28 through 1949-07-30
4	2	2021-06-29 through 2021-06-30
-	2	2013-07-18 through 2013-07-19
-	2	2012-07-17 through 2012-07-18
-	2	1999-07-05 through 1999-07-06
-	2	1993-08-27 through 1993-08-28
-	2	1991-07-20 through 1991-07-21
-	2	1988-07-16 through 1988-07-17
-	2	1988-07-10 through 1988-07-11
-	2	1980-07-20 through 1980-07-21
-	2	1955-07-22 through 1955-07-23
-	2	1949-07-03 through 1949-07-04
-	2	1944-08-04 through 1944-08-05
-	2	1943-06-25 through 1943-06-26
-	2	1936-07-09 through 1936-07-10

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS and Euro both have 100° heat away from the sea breeze next Monday through Wednesday. So it would be the first time for places like Newark to get 3 days in a row reaching 100° in June. The previous all-time June record was 2 days in a row back in June 2021. The all-time record for any month was 5 days in a row in July 2022.

 

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 100 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	5	2022-07-20 through 2022-07-24
2	4	2010-07-04 through 2010-07-07
-	4	1993-07-07 through 1993-07-10
-	4	1953-08-28 through 1953-08-31
3	3	2011-07-21 through 2011-07-23
-	3	2006-08-01 through 2006-08-03
-	3	2001-08-07 through 2001-08-09
-	3	1966-07-02 through 1966-07-04
-	3	1949-08-09 through 1949-08-11
-	3	1949-07-28 through 1949-07-30
4	2	2021-06-29 through 2021-06-30
-	2	2013-07-18 through 2013-07-19
-	2	2012-07-17 through 2012-07-18
-	2	1999-07-05 through 1999-07-06
-	2	1993-08-27 through 1993-08-28
-	2	1991-07-20 through 1991-07-21
-	2	1988-07-16 through 1988-07-17
-	2	1988-07-10 through 1988-07-11
-	2	1980-07-20 through 1980-07-21
-	2	1955-07-22 through 1955-07-23
-	2	1949-07-03 through 1949-07-04
-	2	1944-08-04 through 1944-08-05
-	2	1943-06-25 through 1943-06-26
-	2	1936-07-09 through 1936-07-10

hopefully the sea breeze is out by the hamptons where it belongs

 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS and Euro both have 100° heat away from the sea breeze next Monday through Wednesday. So it would be the first time for places like Newark to get 3 days in a row reaching 100° in June. The previous all-time June record was 2 days in a row back in June 2021. The all-time record for any month was 5 days in a row in July 2022.

 

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 100 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	5	2022-07-20 through 2022-07-24
2	4	2010-07-04 through 2010-07-07
-	4	1993-07-07 through 1993-07-10
-	4	1953-08-28 through 1953-08-31
3	3	2011-07-21 through 2011-07-23
-	3	2006-08-01 through 2006-08-03
-	3	2001-08-07 through 2001-08-09
-	3	1966-07-02 through 1966-07-04
-	3	1949-08-09 through 1949-08-11
-	3	1949-07-28 through 1949-07-30
4	2	2021-06-29 through 2021-06-30
-	2	2013-07-18 through 2013-07-19
-	2	2012-07-17 through 2012-07-18
-	2	1999-07-05 through 1999-07-06
-	2	1993-08-27 through 1993-08-28
-	2	1991-07-20 through 1991-07-21
-	2	1988-07-16 through 1988-07-17
-	2	1988-07-10 through 1988-07-11
-	2	1980-07-20 through 1980-07-21
-	2	1955-07-22 through 1955-07-23
-	2	1949-07-03 through 1949-07-04
-	2	1944-08-04 through 1944-08-05
-	2	1943-06-25 through 1943-06-26
-	2	1936-07-09 through 1936-07-10

 The all-time record for any month was 5 days in a row in July 2022.

 

No Chris, it was in July 1993 when it was hot enough for the entire metro area to be above 100 and Newark had 5 days of 100+ in a row and 9 total.

 

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS and Euro both have 100° heat away from the sea breeze next Monday through Wednesday. So it would be the first time for places like Newark to get 3 days in a row reaching 100° in June. The previous all-time June record was 2 days in a row back in June 2021. The all-time record for any month was 5 days in a row in July 2022.

 

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 100 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	5	2022-07-20 through 2022-07-24
2	4	2010-07-04 through 2010-07-07
-	4	1993-07-07 through 1993-07-10
-	4	1953-08-28 through 1953-08-31
3	3	2011-07-21 through 2011-07-23
-	3	2006-08-01 through 2006-08-03
-	3	2001-08-07 through 2001-08-09
-	3	1966-07-02 through 1966-07-04
-	3	1949-08-09 through 1949-08-11
-	3	1949-07-28 through 1949-07-30
4	2	2021-06-29 through 2021-06-30
-	2	2013-07-18 through 2013-07-19
-	2	2012-07-17 through 2012-07-18
-	2	1999-07-05 through 1999-07-06
-	2	1993-08-27 through 1993-08-28
-	2	1991-07-20 through 1991-07-21
-	2	1988-07-16 through 1988-07-17
-	2	1988-07-10 through 1988-07-11
-	2	1980-07-20 through 1980-07-21
-	2	1955-07-22 through 1955-07-23
-	2	1949-07-03 through 1949-07-04
-	2	1944-08-04 through 1944-08-05
-	2	1943-06-25 through 1943-06-26
-	2	1936-07-09 through 1936-07-10

-4  1993-07-07 through 1993-07-10

 

This can't be right, there were 5 consecutive days of 100+ at Newark in July 1993,  and 3 consecutive days of 100+ at NYC and 2 consecutive days of 100+ at JFK (which is why the heat was of far greater magnitude than anything we have had since then.

 

These three were our most historic heatwaves:

 

4	2010-07-04 through 2010-07-07
-	4	1993-07-07 through 1993-07-10
-	4	1953-08-28 through 1953-08-31
3	3	2011-07-21 through 2011-07-23

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

 The all-time record for any month was 5 days in a row in July 2022.

 

No Chris, it was in July 1993 when it was hot enough for the entire metro area to be above 100 and Newark had 5 days of 100+ in a row and 9 total.

 

July 1993 only had 4 days in a row reach 100° at Newark while 2022 had 5.
 

1993-07-07	103	78	90.5	12.6	0	26	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-08	105	82	93.5	15.4	0	29	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-09	104	83	93.5	15.3	0	29	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-10	105	84	94.5	16.3	0	30	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-11	99	80	89.5	11.2	0	25	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-12	97	80	88.5	10.1	0	24	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-13	98	79	88.5	10.1	0	24	0.00	0.0	0

 

2022-07-20	100	74	87.0	8.5	0	22	0.00	0.0	0
2022-07-21	100	78	89.0	10.5	0	24	0.01	0.0	0
2022-07-22	100	79	89.5	11.0	0	25	0.00	0.0	0
2022-07-23	101	78	89.5	11.1	0	25	0.00	0.0	0
2022-07-24	102	77	89.5	11.1	0	25	0.00	0.0	0

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

July 1993 only had 4 days in a row reach 100° at Newark while 2022 had 5.
 

1993-07-07	103	78	90.5	12.6	0	26	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-08	105	82	93.5	15.4	0	29	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-09	104	83	93.5	15.3	0	29	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-10	105	84	94.5	16.3	0	30	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-11	99	80	89.5	11.2	0	25	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-12	97	80	88.5	10.1	0	24	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-13	98	79	88.5	10.1	0	24	0.00	0.0	0

 

2022-07-20	100	74	87.0	8.5	0	22	0.00	0.0	0
2022-07-21	100	78	89.0	10.5	0	24	0.01	0.0	0
2022-07-22	100	79	89.5	11.0	0	25	0.00	0.0	0
2022-07-23	101	78	89.5	11.1	0	25	0.00	0.0	0
2022-07-24	102	77	89.5	11.1	0	25	0.00	0.0	0

I was alive when this historic heatwave happened and I remember Craig Allen said it was 5.... was 7-11-1993 adjusted downward to 99? Back then Craig Allen said the high was 102 on that date, while it was 97 at NYC. The weird thing is I remember the total number of 100+ days as 9 so if one was taken away, another one must have been added later that summer to make the total unchanged.

At any rate the magnitude of the heat in July 1993 was much higher than it was in 2022, most of those days barely touched 100.

[Sundog]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

July 1993 only had 4 days in a row reach 100° at Newark while 2022 had 5.
 

1993-07-07	103	78	90.5	12.6	0	26	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-08	105	82	93.5	15.4	0	29	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-09	104	83	93.5	15.3	0	29	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-10	105	84	94.5	16.3	0	30	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-11	99	80	89.5	11.2	0	25	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-12	97	80	88.5	10.1	0	24	0.00	0.0	0
1993-07-13	98	79	88.5	10.1	0	24	0.00	0.0	0

 

2022-07-20	100	74	87.0	8.5	0	22	0.00	0.0	0
2022-07-21	100	78	89.0	10.5	0	24	0.01	0.0	0
2022-07-22	100	79	89.5	11.0	0	25	0.00	0.0	0
2022-07-23	101	78	89.5	11.1	0	25	0.00	0.0	0
2022-07-24	102	77	89.5	11.1	0	25	0.00	0.0	0

The heat was more impressive in the 4 day streak in 1993 than the 5 day streak of 2022. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I was alive when this historic heatwave happened and I remember Craig Allen said it was 5.... was 7-11-1993 adjusted downward to 99? Back then Craig Allen said the high was 102 on that date, while it was 97 at NYC. The weird thing is I remember the total number of 100+ days as 9 so if one was taken away, another one must have been added later that summer to make the total unchanged.

At any rate the magnitude of the heat in July 1993 was much higher than it was in 2022, most of those days barely touched 100.

The overall monthly average high temperatures for NJ in July 2022 and 1993 were fairly close.

Monthly Data for July 1993 for New Jersey
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

WAYNE	COOP	93.1
Newark Area	ThreadEx	92.2
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	92.2
MOORESTOWN 4 E	COOP	90.9
WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E	COOP	90.7
CRANFORD	COOP	90.7
LODI	COOP	90.5
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	90.4
BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST	COOP	90.3

 

Monthly Data for July 2022 for New Jersey
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Newark Area	ThreadEx	92.1
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	92.1
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	92.1
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	91.5
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	91.4
CANOE BROOK	COOP	91.4
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	91.4
HARRISON	COOP	91.0
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	90.5
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	90.5

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The overall monthly average high temperatures for NJ in July 2022 and 1993 were fairly close.

Monthly Data for July 1993 for New Jersey
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

WAYNE	COOP	93.1
Newark Area	ThreadEx	92.2
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	92.2
MOORESTOWN 4 E	COOP	90.9
WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E	COOP	90.7
CRANFORD	COOP	90.7
LODI	COOP	90.5
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	90.4
BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST	COOP	90.3

 

Monthly Data for July 2022 for New Jersey
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Newark Area	ThreadEx	92.1
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	92.1
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	92.1
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	91.5
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	91.4
CANOE BROOK	COOP	91.4
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	91.4
HARRISON	COOP	91.0
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	90.5
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	90.5

Were the total number of 100+ days (9) far in excess though? A few of them must have been in June and August in 1993.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The heat was more impressive in the 4 day streak in 1993 than the 5 day streak of 2022. 

For NYC too, check out this old NYT article

 

https://www.nytimes.com/1993/07/11/nyregion/heat-wave-records-rewritten-as-east-bakes-and-midwest-soaks.html

[Sundog]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

For NYC too, check out this old NYT article

 

https://www.nytimes.com/1993/07/11/nyregion/heat-wave-records-rewritten-as-east-bakes-and-midwest-soaks.html

I like reading these, thanks. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Sundog said:

I like reading these, thanks. 

during the early 90s when we hadn't had any big snow seasons for over a decade, I used to go to the library and read NYT on microfiche and seasons of yore like 1947-48 and 1960-61 and 1966-67 and 1977-78

 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I like reading these, thanks. 

Here are all of NYC 100+ days.

I find it somewhat ironic that the first recorded 100 degree day (in 1881) was also the latest it's ever happened, 101 on September 7th.

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/100DegreeDays.pdf

 

100 Degree Day Information at Central Park (1869 to Present)
Last Updated: 1/22/25
100 Degree Facts
* Highest Ever Recorded: 106 on July 9, 1936
Most Days by Month: June 3 + July 42 + August 13 + September 2 = Total 60 days
Most in one year: 4 (1966 and 1953)
Most consecutive 100 degree days: 3 July 8-10, 1993 & August 26-28, 1948
Last time had 100 degree day in September: the 2nd in 1953 (102)
Last time had 100 degree day in August: the 9th in 2001 (103)
Last time had 100 degree day in July: the 18th in 2012 (100)
Last time had 100 degree day in June: the 27th in 1966 (101)
100 degree days before 1900: Sept 7, 1881 (101) and July 31, 1898 (100)
All 100 Degree Days
Year Date / Temperature (°F)
2012 Jul 18/ 100
2011 Jul 22/ 104 Jul 23/ 100
2010 Jul 6/ 103 Jul 7/ 100
2001 Aug 9/ 103
1999 July 5/ 101 July 6th / 101
1995 July 15/ 102
1993 July 8/ 100 July 9/ 101 July 10/ 102
1991 July 20/ 100 July 21/ 102
1980 July 20/ 101 July 21/ 102
1977 July 18/ 100 July 19/ 102 July 21/ 104
1966 June 27/ 101 July 2/ 100 July 3/ 103 July 13/ 101
1957 July 21/ 100 July 22/ 101
1955 July 22/ 100 Aug 2/ 100 Aug 5/ 100
1954 July 14/ 100 July 31/ 100
1953 July 17/ 100 July 18/ 101 Aug 31/ 100 Sep/ 102
1952 June 26/ 100
1949 July 4/ 102 Aug 9/ 100
1948 Aug 26/ 103 Aug 27/ 101 Aug 28/ 100
1944 Aug 4/ 100 Aug 5/ 101 Aug 11/ 102
1937 July 9/ 100 July 10/ 100
1936 July 9/ 106 July 10/ 102
1934 June 29/ 101
1933 July 31/ 102 Aug/ 100
1930 July 21/ 102
1926 July 21/ 100 July 22/ 100
1918 Aug 7/ 104
1917 July 31/ 100
1911 July 3/ 100
1901 July 1/ 100 July 2/ 100
1898 July 3/ 100
1881 Sept 7/ 101

[donsutherland1]

Warmer air will move into the region for tomorrow. The temperature will apporach or reach 80° in New York City. This week's warmth will peak on Thursday with temperatures reaching the upper 80s across the region. A few areas could reach or exceed 90°. The arrival of this warmth will mark the start of a sustained period of above normal temperatures.

No exceptional heat appears likely through the first three weeks of June. However, that will likely change shortly afterward. Excessive heat is possible starting early next week. The magnitude of the heat remains to be resolved among the guidance.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was -7.94 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.216 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7° (1.7° above normal). 

 

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Were the total number of 100+ days (9) far in excess though? A few of them must have been in June and August in 1993.

For totals on 100° days 1993 had a slight edge on 2022.

Data for January 1, 1993 through December 31, 1993 days reaching 100°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	9
Newark Area	ThreadEx	9
WAYNE	COOP	5
LODI	COOP	4
BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST	COOP	3
TUCKERTON 2 NE	COOP	3
WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E	COOP	3
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	3
TOMS RIVER	COOP	3
EWING 3 WNW	COOP	3
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	3
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	3

 

Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 days reaching 100°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	6
Newark Area	ThreadEx	6
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	5
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	5
CANOE BROOK	COOP	4
HARRISON	COOP	4
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	3