June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs:

TEB: 89
PHL: 88
New Brnswck: 88
ACY: 86
BLM: 86
EWR: 86
TTN: 85
NYC: 83
LGA: 82
JFK: 76
ISP: 76

NYC doing okay compared to LGA so far

[SACRUS]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Latest Euro keeps the strongest heat this summer out West with a wetter pattern for us.

How does the ECMWF season run , is it monthly?

[Brian5671]

That euro seasonal is a blowtorch for the country

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the warmest readings today will be following the over the top pattern we have been getting since around 2018. Onshore flow for the south facing beaches. The warmest downslope flow in the Northeast will be found in Mass and NH. So the warmest  departures and perhaps actual temperatures will be heading to our north today. 

what is causing the western flow up there but not down here?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

I only got to 66 overnight and my temp has skyrocketed to 77 degrees currently. Eeww come on man

May I introduce you to July 9, 1993? One of my epic greatest summer days in the history of New York City!

Here is the JFK record from that historic day. It was still 90 degrees there at 11 pm after getting over 90 degrees by 10 AM haha.

And you thought JFK was cool ;-)

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1993-7-9

 

6:00 AM	77 °F	72 °F	84 %	W	5 mph	0 mph	29.92 in	0.0 in	Fair
7:00 AM	80 °F	74 °F	81 %	W	5 mph	0 mph	29.93 in	0.0 in	Cloudy
8:00 AM	86 °F	72 °F	63 %	NW	12 mph	0 mph	29.94 in	0.0 in	Fair
9:00 AM	89 °F	70 °F	53 %	N	13 mph	0 mph	29.95 in	0.0 in	Fair
10:00 AM	91 °F	66 °F	43 %	N	7 mph	0 mph	29.96 in	0.0 in	Fair
11:00 AM	96 °F	65 °F	36 %	NW	10 mph	0 mph	29.95 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
12:00 PM	98 °F	62 °F	30 %	NW	9 mph	0 mph	29.95 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
1:00 PM	99 °F	59 °F	26 %	NNW	10 mph	0 mph	29.94 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
2:00 PM	97 °F	60 °F	29 %	NNW	12 mph	0 mph	29.93 in	0.0 in	Fair
3:00 PM	100 °F	58 °F	25 %	NW	12 mph	0 mph	29.92 in	0.0 in	Fair
4:00 PM	99 °F	59 °F	26 %	WNW	14 mph	0 mph	29.90 in	0.0 in	Fair
5:00 PM	100 °F	58 °F	25 %	W	12 mph	0 mph	29.89 in	0.0 in	Fair

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

May I introduce you to July 9, 1993? One of my epic greatest summer days in the history of New York City!

Here is the JFK record from that historic day. It was still 90 degrees there at 11 pm after getting over 90 degrees by 10 AM haha.

And you thought JFK was cool ;-)

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1993-7-9

 

6:00 AM	77 °F	72 °F	84 %	W	5 mph	0 mph	29.92 in	0.0 in	Fair
7:00 AM	80 °F	74 °F	81 %	W	5 mph	0 mph	29.93 in	0.0 in	Cloudy
8:00 AM	86 °F	72 °F	63 %	NW	12 mph	0 mph	29.94 in	0.0 in	Fair
9:00 AM	89 °F	70 °F	53 %	N	13 mph	0 mph	29.95 in	0.0 in	Fair
10:00 AM	91 °F	66 °F	43 %	N	7 mph	0 mph	29.96 in	0.0 in	Fair
11:00 AM	96 °F	65 °F	36 %	NW	10 mph	0 mph	29.95 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
12:00 PM	98 °F	62 °F	30 %	NW	9 mph	0 mph	29.95 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
1:00 PM	99 °F	59 °F	26 %	NNW	10 mph	0 mph	29.94 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
2:00 PM	97 °F	60 °F	29 %	NNW	12 mph	0 mph	29.93 in	0.0 in	Fair
3:00 PM	100 °F	58 °F	25 %	NW	12 mph	0 mph	29.92 in	0.0 in	Fair
4:00 PM	99 °F	59 °F	26 %	WNW	14 mph	0 mph	29.90 in	0.0 in	Fair
5:00 PM	100 °F	58 °F	25 %	W	12 mph	0 mph	29.89 in	0.0 in	Fair

100 degrees with a 58 dew point  and a 25% humidity and a NW to W wind is my perfect summer day !!

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That euro seasonal is a blowtorch for the country

Let's see if we can get it to match what I just posted from July 1993.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

How does the ECMWF season run , is it monthly?

Yeah, it runs on the 5th of every month and this summer update was just released a few hours ago.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Latest Euro keeps the strongest heat this summer out West with a wetter pattern for us.

I wonder if this is a yearly pattern now, with heat going to the western part of the continent.  We just do not get super hot summers here like 1993 and 2010 were.  Posting that temperature record from July 9, 1993 from JFK is quite the revelation.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

The colors used to represent the temperatures are ridiculous and misleading. It's an obvious ploy to make things look as if the world is on fire. Go back to a chart made 20 years ago and the color representations aren't nearly as extreme.

Just go by actual temperature history, no summer in recent memory can hold a candle to 1993, 1999, 2002 or 2010.

 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Crazy how several days ago it looked like on and off rain for this weekend

Saturday still very much a question mark. The nams look nothing alike

[Brian5671]

Big move south by the 12K NAM but it's a garbage model so who knows

-

edit-the RGEM moved a bit south at 12z so maybe it's onto something

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

The colors used to represent the temperatures are ridiculous and misleading. It's an obvious ploy to make things look as if the world is on fire. Go back to a chart made 20 years ago and the color representations aren't nearly as extreme.

They actually make it look like things are cooling. Since the more recent climate normals are the warmest on record. Our warmer summers patttern bagan back in 2010. So when we use more recent climate normals they appear cooler than the climate normals did over 20 years ago.

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

They actually make it look like things are cooling. Since the more recent climate normals are the warmest on record. Our warmer summers patttern bagan back in 2010. So when we use more recent climate normals they appear cooler than the climate normals did over 20 years ago.

 

 

 

If the climate models were correct, we would all be getting three 100 degree days every summer.  Sure some areas are getting hotter but it's not as widespread as we thought it would be and the warming is affecting our winters much more than our summers.

These models need to be tweaked to account for what we're actually seeing. Which is higher mins and a blunting of extreme highs in the summer.

 

[Sundog]

35 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

The colors used to represent the temperatures are ridiculous and misleading. It's an obvious ploy to make things look as if the world is on fire. Go back to a chart made 20 years ago and the color representations aren't nearly as extreme.

I don't know if it's as much of ploy as it is a boneheaded decision. 

The tidbits colors are ok. 

The weathermodels map is not so good. 

But Pivotal takes the cake for worst color scheme. It has deep red for temps in the upper 60s. GTFO with that nonsense. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Sundog said:

I don't know if it's as much of ploy as it is a boneheaded decision. 

The tidbits colors are ok. 

The weathermodels map is not so good. 

But Pivotal takes the cake for worst color scheme. It has deep red for temps in the upper 60s. GTFO with that nonsense. 

lmao I told you it looked like an air pollution map from June 2023.... or a map of Mars

 

[Sundog]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

May I introduce you to July 9, 1993? One of my epic greatest summer days in the history of New York City!

Here is the JFK record from that historic day. It was still 90 degrees there at 11 pm after getting over 90 degrees by 10 AM haha.

And you thought JFK was cool ;-)

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1993-7-9

 

6:00 AM	77 °F	72 °F	84 %	W	5 mph	0 mph	29.92 in	0.0 in	Fair
7:00 AM	80 °F	74 °F	81 %	W	5 mph	0 mph	29.93 in	0.0 in	Cloudy
8:00 AM	86 °F	72 °F	63 %	NW	12 mph	0 mph	29.94 in	0.0 in	Fair
9:00 AM	89 °F	70 °F	53 %	N	13 mph	0 mph	29.95 in	0.0 in	Fair
10:00 AM	91 °F	66 °F	43 %	N	7 mph	0 mph	29.96 in	0.0 in	Fair
11:00 AM	96 °F	65 °F	36 %	NW	10 mph	0 mph	29.95 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
12:00 PM	98 °F	62 °F	30 %	NW	9 mph	0 mph	29.95 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
1:00 PM	99 °F	59 °F	26 %	NNW	10 mph	0 mph	29.94 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
2:00 PM	97 °F	60 °F	29 %	NNW	12 mph	0 mph	29.93 in	0.0 in	Fair
3:00 PM	100 °F	58 °F	25 %	NW	12 mph	0 mph	29.92 in	0.0 in	Fair
4:00 PM	99 °F	59 °F	26 %	WNW	14 mph	0 mph	29.90 in	0.0 in	Fair
5:00 PM	100 °F	58 °F	25 %	W	12 mph	0 mph	29.89 in	0.0 in	Fair

I spent the entire summers in Greece in a lot of our warmest summers in the 1990s here. 

I wasn't here to experience 1993, 1995, or the 1999 summers. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

I spent the entire summers in Greece in a lot of our warmest summers in the 1990s here. 

I wasn't here to experience 1993, 1995, or the 1999 summers. 

Was it hotter but drier in Greece?

I wonder if a 100 degree day with a dew point of 58 and humidity of 25% is something which this area can ever even experience again?

[Sundog]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

They actually make it look like things are cooling. Since the more recent climate normals are the warmest on record. Our warmer summers patttern bagan back in 2010. So when we use more recent climate normals they appear cooler than the climate normals did over 20 years ago.

 

 

 

I think maybe he meant the color scheme? That's what I gathered from his post. 

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Was it hotter but drier in Greece?

I wonder if a 100 degree day with a dew point of 58 and humidity of 25% is something which this area can ever even experience again?

Low to mid 90s is typical in the hotter parts of the country in July and August. But dews are usually in the 40s and 50s and there is almost always a decent breeze blowing. 

Southern Europe goes into its dry season in summer, so I would see rain like twice in all of July and August while there. 

 

[Sundog]

Dewpoints are pretty high, between 65 and 70 degrees. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Dewpoints are pretty high, between 65 and 70 degrees. 

It's near 80 here even without the sun.

Weird thing going on in my trees a large swarm of sea gulls are hovering over them and even sitting on them picking at something.  I think they're eating the fruit-- it's a mulberry tree.

 

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

If the climate models were correct, we would all be getting three 100 degree days every summer.  Sure some areas are getting hotter but it's not as widespread as we thought it would be and the warming is affecting our winters much more than our summers.

These models need to be tweaked to account for what we're actually seeing. Which is higher mins and a blunting of extreme highs in the summer.

 

A newer climate model that was first run back in 2013 is doing a pretty good job so far. It forecast the increase in summer ridging near the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies and another area to the east of New England. This has been the main summer pattern since 2018. It gives us these over the top warm ups.

It has been a reliably warmer than normal summer pattern for us. As the only slightly cooler summer here was in 2023. Every other summer finished up warmer than average.

But the increased onshore flow with a ridge east of New England holds down the big increase in 100° days that some of the older climate models were indicating. We need a strong 500mb positive height anomaly closer to the Great Lakes like from 2010 to 2013 to get a high number of 100° days from around NYC to the east. This is why JFK continues with the longest under 100° day streak on record.

The Euro summer forecast is very similar to the general pattern since 2018

 

Similar to summer pattern since 2018

 

 

Resembling new climate model forecast made in 2013

 

 

 

 

 

[Dark Star]

23 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I think maybe he meant the color scheme? That's what I gathered from his post. 

 

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

They actually make it look like things are cooling. Since the more recent climate normals are the warmest on record. Our warmer summers patttern bagan back in 2010. So when we use more recent climate normals they appear cooler than the climate normals did over 20 years ago.

 

 

 

That's why I say to use the total historical data, not the previous 30 year average from 10 years ago? 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A newer climate model that was first run back in 2013 is doing a pretty good job so far. It forecast the increase in summer ridging near the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies and another area to the east  of New England. This has been the main summer pattern since 2018. It gives us these over the top warm ups.

It has been a reliably warmer than normal summer pattern for us. As the only slightly cooler summer here was in 2023. Every other summer finished up warmer than average.

But the increased onshore flow with a ridge east of New England holds down the big increase in 100° days that some of the older climate models were indicating. We need a strong 500mb positive height anomaly closer to the Great Lakes like from 2010 to 2013 to get a high number of 100° days from around NYC to the east. This is why JFK continues with the longest under 100° day streak on record.

The Euro summer forecast is very similar to the general pattern since 2018.

 

Similar to summer pattern since 2018

 

 

Resembling new climate model forecast made in 2013

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks Chris, is there a specific reason these over the top patterns are happening? Is it linked to what we are seeing with the western basins in the Oceans warming up more quickly too (it's happening both in the Western Pacific and the Western Atlantic.)  I noticed that Western Europe has been getting a lot of extreme heat the last few years just like Western North America has been getting.  London reached 104 F (40 C) for the first time in recorded history a few years ago.

 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Chris, is there a specific reason these over the top patterns are happening? Is it linked to what we are seeing with the western basins in the Oceans warming up more quickly too (it's happening both in the Western Pacific and the Western Atlantic.)  I noticed that Western Europe has been getting a lot of extreme heat the last few years just like Western North America has been getting.  London reached 104 F (40 C) for the first time in recorded history a few years ago.

 

The exact reason that the warming is manifesting in these new stuck weather patterns that have become common in recent years may not be fully understood yet. But we can still use them as an aid to our long range winter and summer seasonal forecasts. Once a season begins and the same patterns emerge as recent years, then it helps gain confidence in the model forecasts going forward. So if the models show a big over the top warm up like today, then it’s a match for our new recent climo. This becomes useful in comparing it to what the longer range medium and and seasonals are showing. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The exact reason that the warming is manifesting in these new stuck weather patterns that have become common in recent years may not be fully understood yet. But we can still use them as an aid to our long range winter and summer seasonal forecasts. Once a season begins and the same patterns emerge as recent years, then it helps gain confidence in the model forecasts going forward. So if the models show a big over the top warm up like today, then it’s a match for our new recent climo. This becomes useful in comparing it to what the longer range medium and and seasonals are showing. 

I like trying to make connections and I can't help but feel that the warming of the West Pac and the West Atl is causing high pressures in the western basins to migrate further north causing a feedback mechanism that is resulting in these stuck patterns.  I think this will only change when we see a massive melting of the ice caps and an influx of cooler water into these basins, which, ironically enough might reset everything to the old pattern (at a higher level.)

Nature does self regulate through feedback mechanisms even though it might do it in a way we don't want it to.

[Rjay]

51 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I don't know if it's as much of ploy as it is a boneheaded decision. 

The tidbits colors are ok. 

The weathermodels map is not so good. 

But Pivotal takes the cake for worst color scheme. It has deep red for temps in the upper 60s. GTFO with that nonsense. 

Weatherbell lol

[Sundog]

19 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Weatherbell lol

They do have good looking maps though, I like their graphics. 

[winterwarlock]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

The colors used to represent the temperatures are ridiculous and misleading. It's an obvious ploy to make things look as if the world is on fire. Go back to a chart made 20 years ago and the color representations aren't nearly as extreme.

Great post

 

Don't know why everything has to be called EXTREME WEATHER...they want to make it look like only recent history we have had extreme events and its only been hot because...gasp climate change