Global Average Temperature 2025

[chubbs]

CERES has been updated through July. Recent months have been increasing erratically a sign that the enso-cycle bottom has been passed. The three-year average net radiation remains at a high level, well above the initial heat imbalance when CERES started collecting data in 2000. The recent net radiation uptick is also consistent with the large rise in ocean-heat content in 2nd quarter which was posted above. Both energy balance metrics indicate that the earth continues to warm rapidly.

[donsutherland1]

Through October 10th, 2025 has the 3rd warmest start to October globally on the ERA-5 dataset. The five warmest October 1-10 periods are:

1. 15.72°C, 2023
2. 15.59°C, 2024
3. 15.45°C, 2025
4. 15.38°, 2015
5. 15.30°C, 2020

With the warm global forecast (generally 0.8°C-1.0°C)  on the ECMWF weeklies, there is a growing chance that 2025 could join 2023 and 2024 as the only years with an October mean temperature of 15.00°C or above.