Global Average Temperature 2025

[bluewave]

New SST records set for the subtropical oceans.

 

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

New SST records set for the subtropical oceans.

 

Why did they wait til the mid 90s to finally start warming?

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

Why did they wait til the mid 90s to finally start warming?

Tough sell/science for now ... ( and I realize you're not asking me directly - ) but,  I've surmised it may be related to C02 growth in the atmosphere, exceeding absorption rate/capacity of the oceans.  With more C02 left available to store tropospheric heat, that effects heat exchange efficiency in the total atmosphere/ocean coupled model.  

How?    A warmer C02 richer atmosphere increased WV loading, and above some mass, this slows the evaporation rate off the ocean, which physically transports heat away with the evaporating mass...  This slows ocean cooling, ...such that heat absorption exceeds heat escaping -->  temp goes up.   

Probably?  approaching a critical mass threshold where we all die.   Have nice day ///   2023 didn't just happen for shits and giggles.  And the ITZ SST band only dropping .6, while the Sub -T SSTs tickle history, means the total region is actually not going down.     

[chubbs]

Another paper in the high climate sensitivity camp. This paper says that low-climate sensitivity models can't match CERES satellite radiation measurements, i.e. climate models are underestimating warming on average.

"The CERES satellite measures Earth's energy imbalance—specifically, how much solar radiation is absorbed compared to how much heat (longwave) radiation is emitted back into space. The data show a significant increase in absorbed solar radiation, partly due to reduced snow and ice cover, but also because of changes to clouds. At the same time, Earth is emitting more heat, driven by rising surface temperatures.

The satellite measurements have been compared with results from 37 climate models. The study shows a clear connection between climate sensitivity in the models and the ratio between increased absorbed solar radiation and increased heat radiation from Earth. Climate models with low climate sensitivity show small changes in the energy imbalance in the individual contributions from absorbed solar radiation and increased terrestrial radiation from Earth, and are less able to reproduce what is measured from satellite data."

https://phys.org/news/2025-06-climate-sensitivity-greenhouse-gases-align.html

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adt0647

[LibertyBell]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

Why did they wait til the mid 90s to finally start warming?

isn't that when the AMO changed from - to +?

our tropics were very quiet before 1995

[bluewave]

On 6/14/2025 at 7:48 AM, GaWx said:

Why did they wait til the mid 90s to finally start warming?

The strong subtropical warming actually contradicts our current understanding of how the ocean temperatures have changed in the past. The strongest SST warming was expected in the subpolar oceans. But instead the western subtropical basins have seen the greatest warming. But isn’t anything new as the lack of warming in the EPAC has baffled scientists for a while now. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00839-w

Strongest ocean warming expected in subpolar ocean

The observed warming pattern (Fig. 1a) contradicts our understanding of how ocean temperature has changed in the geologic past. SST reconstructions covering the mid-Pliocene, the most recent time when atmospheric GHG concentrations were similar to today⁴¹, highlight the strongest large-scale ocean warming over the subpolar oceans (Fig. 1c). Comparably, warmings in subtropical regions are less pronounced, except for the subtropical extension of western boundary currents, where a poleward shift of western boundary currents contributes to a local maximum temperature increase^8,9.

 

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The strong subtropical warming actually contradicts our current understanding of how the ocean temperatures have changed in the past. The strongest SST warming was expected in the subpolar oceans. But instead the western subtropical basins have seen the greatest warming. But isn’t anything new as the lack of warming in the EPAC has baffled scientists for a while now. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00839-w

Strongest ocean warming expected in subpolar ocean

The observed warming pattern (Fig. 1a) contradicts our understanding of how ocean temperature has changed in the geologic past. SST reconstructions covering the mid-Pliocene, the most recent time when atmospheric GHG concentrations were similar to today⁴¹, highlight the strongest large-scale ocean warming over the subpolar oceans (Fig. 1c). Comparably, warmings in subtropical regions are less pronounced, except for the subtropical extension of western boundary currents, where a poleward shift of western boundary currents contributes to a local maximum temperature increase^8,9.

 

Maybe it's because the western basins are warming faster..... it's happening in the Atlantic too.  There is a see saw effect, if one side warms faster the other side has to go in the opposite direction?

[bdgwx]

On 6/14/2025 at 6:48 AM, GaWx said:

Why did they wait til the mid 90s to finally start warming?

That is a really good and interesting question.

This touches on the topic of ENSO as well. As we've discussed before the ENSO region hasn't warmed in the last few decades despite the global average warming. As a result the general circulation patterns that had once typified the ENSO cycle are no longer playing out; at least not in the same way as they once did. This is because El Nino's appear attenuated and La Nina's amplified against the global backdrop. This is the primary motivation of new indices like the RONI.