John1122 Posted July 16 Author Share Posted July 16 Very divergent pattern on the GFS op vs the GEFS in the 8-15 range. The GEFS is generally AN for the area with AN precip. The 0z GFS is wet and way BN temp wise for the same period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 17 Author Share Posted July 17 The rain showers have hit again today and tonight. It's hard to get super hot when we have plenty of soil moisture. Hopefully we keep piling on rain the next 4 or 5 days like forecast. It should help blunt the heat next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 17 Author Share Posted July 17 Another heavy rainer moving over. It thundered for 45 minutes, then stopped when it started raining. Now we've had 3 rounds of heavy rain without thunder. Looks like it's training along the Plateau from Crossville to here and over towards NE TN and SW Va. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 15 hours ago, John1122 said: Another heavy rainer moving over. It thundered for 45 minutes, then stopped when it started raining. Now we've had 3 rounds of heavy rain without thunder. Looks like it's training along the Plateau from Crossville to here and over towards NE TN and SW Va. Recorded just under 2 inches here last night. Portions of the Area received 2-3 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 I still can't catch a break here. This should be the wettest month of the year. We average over 6" in July. Halfway through and I'm at 0.77. And all but 2 days have been 90+ so what little rain we got vaporized quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 19 Author Share Posted July 19 Ironically the last two days we've been under a flood watch with an 80 percent chance of rain and it's hardly rained at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 Been in Johnson City since Wednesday. The storms that rolled through here last night and Thursday night were some serious storms. High winds, torrential rainfall and lots of lightning. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 On 7/18/2025 at 9:54 PM, John1122 said: Ironically the last two days we've been under a flood watch with an 80 percent chance of rain and it's hardly rained at all. Right. The Models haven't been good depicting where the greatest likelihood of Storms will setup. Day before yesterday they had it over us, west to east. It ended up being further North along a London to Wise line with spreaded swath width about 50-75 miles North of that line. This Morning an area was further south than progged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 Went up to Roan mountain yesterday for the first time. Hiked up to the Bluff and walked around Carvers Gap. The destruction up there was unbelievable. I couldn't imagine the sustained winds up there being 100 plus mph. It's beautiful up there and rained on and off all day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 The lightning in these storms around TRI has been insane. We have definitely been catching a break with more rain than we have been getting. TRI seems to dry out during July-October...so we take what we can get. What Helene did was super similar to what happened in the Smokies many years ago when the road between the Y and Gatlinburg was wiped out. I am beginning to think these events are slightly more common than once thought. Buffalo Mountain had a catastrophic flood just out of the blue several years ago. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 21 Author Share Posted July 21 Picked up about .4 today, about 2 inches the last week. Areas just west of me in Scott Co has gotten around 6+ inches of rain the last few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 22 Author Share Posted July 22 A little over a half inch of rain today in two showers. The ground is so we, extreme heat should be off the table. It does feel like the tropics here lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Finally got lucky with the rain yesterday. Three separate storms and just over an inch of rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Same story. Storms just kept coming Monday. Turning over the atmo didn't matter. Storms seemed to redevelop on a boundary. Well the extended forecast calls for more heat, humidity, and suffering. The mild start to summer was nice, but it's ancient history now. First thought the July heat might break for August. Looks more like low key heat continues after the true heat wave breaks. Wake me up in September. Prolly still be hot, but likely less humid, and definitely a lower sun angle. Football too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 I sense the gears of fall slowly turning further to our north. Count your days summer because soon those crisp fall breezes will be pushing you out! EURO brings some nice dews teasingly close to us to open August. Still too early.. Also. Football in a month. Best time of year (September- new years) is loading up! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Of course we have to pay our dues before that front the first of August. As the hot ridge compresses (Midwest to South) the heat will crank up all over the Valley. This week was Mid-South focused; next week will get all the way east - and probably more intense everywhere. I figure we will enjoy that break the first of August. Even normal temps will feel refreshing esp. with lower dews. I suspect we're not done with heat though. Usually takes multiple pushes to break the pattern. That said next week should be the peak of summer. Slight above later in August is my feel. Nothing horrible, but the typical slow transition to football weather. Tropical CAVEATs: East Coast phase could help a milder pattern settle in. Western Gulf landfall would just amp up the ridge and add humidity (pulling dews inland) in Aug. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 08:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:08 PM Always good to see cold fronts pressing south of the Canadian border during early August. Nice little aforementioned(by TV crew) summer relief incoming later this week. I haven't feel like this summer has been overly hot, but it has for sure been overly humid. We got a nice thunderstorm mid-day today w/ some much needed rain. Kingsport tends to do what Chattanooga does during many events....we get the rain shadow from 500 different directions. To my surprise, my run was in light run early this morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted Monday at 08:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:35 PM all forecasting areas (meg ohx mrx and hun) are showing a rain chances picking up on thursday along with a cold front and or frontal boundary and a trough im guessing moving on nearby or pointed in a north west fashion and then return to zonal flow through the weekend with continued rain chances and cooler temps from thursday through sunday then a possible warmup again afterwards unfortunately but i hope the cooldown period lasts longer at least but who knows (i should post in here more often but i dont think i have at all) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Monday at 11:26 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:26 PM Picked up 1/2 inch of rain today. Definitely helped keep the temperatures down, even though it was extremely humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted Monday at 11:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:30 PM oh nice thats good john yeah it is pretty hot and humid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted Tuesday at 12:39 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:39 AM speaking of there some showers coming down from kentucky including a line as well at the moment i would say its at least halfway through kentucky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 03:13 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 03:13 AM The first round of Kentucky storms gave me some pretty heavy showers and frequent thunder. Looks like more upstream but it's weakening some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted Tuesday at 03:59 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:59 AM oh nice it looks like it really fell apart up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 11:22 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 11:22 PM Got another 1/2 inch of rain overnight but nothing today but steamy heat. Made it to 89.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 08:51 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 08:51 PM Yet another 1/2 inch of rain so far today, this one in about 25 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 10:30 PM Share Posted yesterday at 10:30 PM ***Update***Almost 4” of rain in less than an hour. Flooding has been significant and impressive. Scannerfood has a ton of photos from the region. Only in Florida have I seen it rain that long and with that intensity. I was using a snow shovel and a squeegee to push water out of my garage - losing battle! I will try to upload some photos later. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted yesterday at 10:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 10:56 PM oh thats good mrx did that i hope everybody is okay there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Really been short changed irt Rainfall here at my home east of Jonesville. Under 4 inches for the Month so far. Average is about 5.25". Just continues to develop all around us . It's as if we have a mini dome around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago 29 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Really been short changed irt Rainfall here at my home east of Jonesville. Under 4 inches for the Month so far. Average is about 5.25". Just continues to develop all around us . It's as if we have a mini dome around here. It was doing the same here but lately the thunderstorms have been hitting daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 12 hours ago Author Share Posted 12 hours ago While I've been lucky lately with the showers popping imby, the forecast has been swinging quite dramatically as the day of approaches. For the last few weeks MRX has put high rain chances in the d 3-7 period, only to see them slightly dip by d2 and crash by d1. This week was advertised to have 80 percent rain chances today for days in advance, yesterday morning the chance for today was 90 percent, it dipped to 70 percent with the evening forecast package, now it's down to 30 percent. The 80 percent for Friday dropped to 50 percent with today's package. At least the cold front still looks to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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