John1122 Posted July 16 Author Share Posted July 16 Very divergent pattern on the GFS op vs the GEFS in the 8-15 range. The GEFS is generally AN for the area with AN precip. The 0z GFS is wet and way BN temp wise for the same period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 17 Author Share Posted July 17 The rain showers have hit again today and tonight. It's hard to get super hot when we have plenty of soil moisture. Hopefully we keep piling on rain the next 4 or 5 days like forecast. It should help blunt the heat next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 17 Author Share Posted July 17 Another heavy rainer moving over. It thundered for 45 minutes, then stopped when it started raining. Now we've had 3 rounds of heavy rain without thunder. Looks like it's training along the Plateau from Crossville to here and over towards NE TN and SW Va. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 15 hours ago, John1122 said: Another heavy rainer moving over. It thundered for 45 minutes, then stopped when it started raining. Now we've had 3 rounds of heavy rain without thunder. Looks like it's training along the Plateau from Crossville to here and over towards NE TN and SW Va. Recorded just under 2 inches here last night. Portions of the Area received 2-3 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 I still can't catch a break here. This should be the wettest month of the year. We average over 6" in July. Halfway through and I'm at 0.77. And all but 2 days have been 90+ so what little rain we got vaporized quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Saturday at 01:54 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 01:54 AM Ironically the last two days we've been under a flood watch with an 80 percent chance of rain and it's hardly rained at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Saturday at 01:21 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:21 PM Been in Johnson City since Wednesday. The storms that rolled through here last night and Thursday night were some serious storms. High winds, torrential rainfall and lots of lightning. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Sunday at 03:10 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:10 AM On 7/18/2025 at 9:54 PM, John1122 said: Ironically the last two days we've been under a flood watch with an 80 percent chance of rain and it's hardly rained at all. Right. The Models haven't been good depicting where the greatest likelihood of Storms will setup. Day before yesterday they had it over us, west to east. It ended up being further North along a London to Wise line with spreaded swath width about 50-75 miles North of that line. This Morning an area was further south than progged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Sunday at 01:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:52 PM Went up to Roan mountain yesterday for the first time. Hiked up to the Bluff and walked around Carvers Gap. The destruction up there was unbelievable. I couldn't imagine the sustained winds up there being 100 plus mph. It's beautiful up there and rained on and off all day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM The lightning in these storms around TRI has been insane. We have definitely been catching a break with more rain than we have been getting. TRI seems to dry out during July-October...so we take what we can get. What Helene did was super similar to what happened in the Smokies many years ago when the road between the Y and Gatlinburg was wiped out. I am beginning to think these events are slightly more common than once thought. Buffalo Mountain had a catastrophic flood just out of the blue several years ago. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Monday at 03:54 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 03:54 AM Picked up about .4 today, about 2 inches the last week. Areas just west of me in Scott Co has gotten around 6+ inches of rain the last few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 12:58 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 12:58 AM A little over a half inch of rain today in two showers. The ground is so we, extreme heat should be off the table. It does feel like the tropics here lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted Tuesday at 12:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:19 PM Finally got lucky with the rain yesterday. Three separate storms and just over an inch of rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM Same story. Storms just kept coming Monday. Turning over the atmo didn't matter. Storms seemed to redevelop on a boundary. Well the extended forecast calls for more heat, humidity, and suffering. The mild start to summer was nice, but it's ancient history now. First thought the July heat might break for August. Looks more like low key heat continues after the true heat wave breaks. Wake me up in September. Prolly still be hot, but likely less humid, and definitely a lower sun angle. Football too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted Wednesday at 10:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:25 PM I sense the gears of fall slowly turning further to our north. Count your days summer because soon those crisp fall breezes will be pushing you out! EURO brings some nice dews teasingly close to us to open August. Still too early.. Also. Football in a month. Best time of year (September- new years) is loading up! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Of course we have to pay our dues before that front the first of August. As the hot ridge compresses (Midwest to South) the heat will crank up all over the Valley. This week was Mid-South focused; next week will get all the way east - and probably more intense everywhere. I figure we will enjoy that break the first of August. Even normal temps will feel refreshing esp. with lower dews. I suspect we're not done with heat though. Usually takes multiple pushes to break the pattern. That said next week should be the peak of summer. Slight above later in August is my feel. Nothing horrible, but the typical slow transition to football weather. Tropical CAVEATs: East Coast phase could help a milder pattern settle in. Western Gulf landfall would just amp up the ridge and add humidity (pulling dews inland) in Aug. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now