Spring 2025 Med/Long Range Discussion

[John1122]

Very divergent pattern on the GFS op vs the GEFS in the 8-15 range. The GEFS is generally AN for the area with AN precip. The 0z GFS is wet and way BN temp wise for the same period. 

[John1122]

The rain showers have hit again today and tonight. It's hard to get super hot when we have plenty of soil moisture.  Hopefully we keep piling on rain the next 4 or 5 days like forecast. It should help blunt the heat next week. 

[John1122]

Another heavy rainer moving over. It thundered for 45 minutes, then stopped when it started raining. Now we've had 3 rounds of heavy rain without thunder. Looks like it's training along the Plateau from Crossville to here and over towards NE TN and SW Va. 

[Daniel Boone]

15 hours ago, John1122 said:

Another heavy rainer moving over. It thundered for 45 minutes, then stopped when it started raining. Now we've had 3 rounds of heavy rain without thunder. Looks like it's training along the Plateau from Crossville to here and over towards NE TN and SW Va. 

Recorded just under 2 inches here last night. Portions of the Area received 2-3 inches.

[dwagner88]

I still can't catch a break here. This should be the wettest month of the year. We average over 6" in July. Halfway through and I'm at 0.77. And all but 2 days have been 90+ so what little rain we got vaporized quickly.

[John1122]

Ironically the last two days we've been under a flood watch with an 80 percent chance of rain and it's hardly rained at all. 

[Met1985]

Been in Johnson City since Wednesday.  The storms that rolled through here last night and Thursday night were some serious storms. High winds, torrential rainfall and lots of lightning. 

[Daniel Boone]

On 7/18/2025 at 9:54 PM, John1122 said:

Ironically the last two days we've been under a flood watch with an 80 percent chance of rain and it's hardly rained at all. 

Right. The Models haven't been good depicting where the greatest likelihood of Storms will setup. Day before yesterday they had it over us, west to east. It ended up being further North along a London to Wise line with spreaded swath width about 50-75 miles North of that line. This Morning an area was further south than progged. 

[Met1985]

Went up to Roan mountain yesterday for the first time. Hiked up to the Bluff and walked around Carvers Gap. The destruction up there was unbelievable. I couldn't imagine the sustained winds up there being 100 plus mph. It's beautiful up there and rained on and off all day. 

[Carvers Gap]

The lightning in these storms around TRI has been insane.  We have definitely been catching a break with more rain than we have been getting.   TRI seems to dry out during July-October...so we take what we can get.

What Helene did was super similar to what happened in the Smokies many years ago when the road between the Y and Gatlinburg was wiped out.  I am beginning to think these events are slightly more common than once thought.  Buffalo Mountain had a catastrophic flood just out of the blue several years ago.