2025-2026 ENSO

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This looks great. More members further south  this run.

Mean is livin' with the termites. I don't recall ever seeing such an extended, weak period of 10mb winds. Still decently below average into January and lower at that point than several days ago.

[snowman19]

Lowest Nino 3.4 SSTs this fall (since Sept 1st)

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

That doesnt mean this winter will not be good.  Its only November 17.

Jeez people are already jumping off ledges.

In Michigan we get more winter than the east coast and we get it noticeably earlier. I would never be worried about a winter if I wasn't seeing lots of snow on models by the start of December. If anyone SERIOUSLY (and not trolling) is jumping off a ledge on the east coast in mid November...Just wow. Especially when so many have pointed out many good signs. 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies are awesome if you like winter weather 

Per this EW run’s weekly 2m maps directly from the source, it remains a step down process from a mild E US start:

Dec 1-7: mild

 

Dec 8-14: cools some to slightly mild to normal

 

Dec 15-21: cools to normal

 

Dec 22-28: cold comes in around Christmas!

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This looks great. More members further south  this run.

This is by a good margin the weakest SPV on any run. If this verifies closely, this would be the weakest late Nov to early Dec SPV by a good margin since way back in 1987! We know that one month later there was a historic SE winter storm, which gave Atlanta 4” of sleet, very heavy snowfall in some other areas, and ZR down all of the way down here.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Per this EW run’s weekly 2m maps directly from the source, it remains a step down process from a mild E US start:

Dec 1-7: mild

Dec 8-14: cools some to slightly mild to normal
Dec 15-21: cools to normal

Dec 22-28: cold comes in around Christmas!

They are catching onto the time-lagged -NAO from November Stratosphere warming (late Dec -NAO). 

Still, that Dec 1-7 map is pretty significantly different from a few weeks ago.. the seasonal models don't fluctuate that much. 

[stadiumwave]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Lowest Nino 3.4 SSTs this fall (since Sept 1st)

Look at Region 1 & 2

 

 

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Look at Region 1 & 2

 

 

Region 4. Looks basin-wide

[GaWx]

 From JB today:

Euro MJO closest analogs 1983 and 1989

The severe cold Decembers of 1983 and 1989 

both raise the spectre of a cold shot letting loose into the Texas Citrus areas, with Fla secondary concern

 

had a major stratwarm in mid to late November, almost identical to now

—————-

 The only problem with this is that there was no major stratwarm in mid to late Nov of 1983 or 1989 or anytime during early to mid winter for both for that matter:

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-SSW-and-SFW-event-onset-date-year-and-type-identified-in-the-NCEP-NCAR-dataset-The_tbl1_267063738

———-
 Also, I checked to see if the 60-90N temperatures in the strat. in mid to late Nov were notably warm and they weren’t. Lastly, I checked the zonal winds at 60N in both Novs to see if they were weak despite no actual reversal. They weren’t as they were pretty close to normal. 
 

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html#ncep_clim_stats_nh

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is the pattern that a lot of us were talking about this Summer and Fall, showing itself in the first few days of December already! @40/70 Benchmark -AO/+NAO

It has still shown difficult for an Aleutian ridge to get established and hold persistent.. notice how the Pacific is +PNA there. Could be the MJO passing through 7-8, too. Kind of a "Neutral ENSO" type thing in the N. Pacific, imo. 

-AO near 90N does correlate with cold around 45N, but it doesn't actually usually go south of 40N, unless the ridge moves over the Davis Strait or northern Canada. We saw this pattern last February. We'll need that +PNA to get going, amping a ridge over the West Coast to get a far SE pushing cold shot, at least in the first part of December. 

[stadiumwave]

[BlizzardWx]

00z ECMWF at 50 hPa has a full PV split with 3 daughter vortices, one right over the US. That'll help heading into December. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah, the 0z Euro looks really good for Stratosphere warming, coming in 3 bursts, and holding strong through December 4. Dec 4th has a +30-35 day normal lag as a secondary event to the troposphere, so we're correlating with -AO conditions to the 1st week of January.