2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Subsurface is approaching -6c right now.. if that's normally 65F water, right now it's 55F. That's raw, not adjusted for global warming and everything.. I do think that it really can't go much lower than this given how warm everything is, without it being some anomaly. And the subsurface does fluctuate more than the surface (Kelvin/Rossby waves)

It's still July.. if Aug comes in <-0.5 ONI, it has a good chance of making it 5 straight months.. even Sept would have to carry only through January for an official Nina. Tropical tidbits currently has Nino 3.4 at -0.6c, but I know CPC is much warmer.. looks like they are -0.1 to -0.2

I default to CPC...obviously if the data I am using is ultimately incorrect, then that changes things.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

I adjust with the model consensus, with each model adjusted for what I perceive to be its bias. My latest prediction of a -0.4 ONI low was based on July runs. I’ll re-examine in August.

I don't. I try to call BS when I think they are wrong, as I did last year when they bailed on cool ENSO. I am confident they are too meager with it yet again.

[bluewave]

Very strong La Niña background state continuing with the record July heat and Southeast Ridge. So a continuation of these record subtropical ridges. The models have frequently been underestimating the heat and ridging in the East.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You think that will enhance MJO Phases 4-5-6 in the Wintertime? 

So far MJO phases phases 5-6-7 have been heavily favored. The difference between this year and last year is that the forcing hasn’t been as strong/amplified

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very strong La Niña background state continuing with the record July heat and Southeast Ridge. So a continuation of these record subtropical ridges. The models have frequently been underestimating the heat and ridging in the East.

 

 

 

How far did the 100 degree heat extend into Central Florida Chris? Was Orlando at or above 100 too? They have a 1 in 10 year rate of 100 degree high temperatures, about equal to JFK.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

How far did the 100 degree heat extend into Central Florida Chris? Was Orlando at or above 100 too? They have a 1 in 10 year rate of 100 degree high temperatures, about equal to JFK.

 I’m not Chris, but I already know the answer because I followed it closely. Tampa tied Jacksonville, Gainesville, and Leesburg for the hottest of major FL reporting stations yesterday with 100. This tied a daily record at JAX and was easily a new daily record at Leesburg. Lessburg’s tied with 1990 for a monthly record, but July records go back only to 1959.

 Orlando was “only” 97.

 Edit: it’s interesting that Tampa was tied for the hottest in FL yesterday despite being one of only very few stations in FL having not hit 100 before yesterday. It took just the right (or wrong) wind (a very rare for July light NE wind to keep the seabreeze away) along with few or no clouds to make it happen as the tweet Chris quoted mentioned. Even a strong NE wind likely wouldn’t have allowed it because that would bring in too much cooling over from the Atlantic side.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very strong La Niña background state continuing with the record July heat and Southeast Ridge. So a continuation of these record subtropical ridges. The models have frequently been underestimating the heat and ridging in the East.

 

 

 

The long range guidance, both summer and winter has consistently been too cold in the east since 2016 and has been grossly underestimating the SE ridge/WAR

[snowman19]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

La Nina is developing

At the very least, this should mean a warm Fall. 

Increased chances for -PNA this Winter if that strong cold pool maintains (subsurface has more flux than surface SSTs. It could wane in the coming months. It did last year.)

I’m gaining more confidence with each passing day that this met fall (SON) is warmer to possibly much warmer than normal. I also see a risk for drier than normal as well; not to the level of last fall, which broke records, but drier than normal none the less

[mitchnick]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The long range guidance, both summer and winter has consistently been too cold in the east since 2016 and has been grossly underestimating the SE ridge/WAR

There was no consensus last year with a noticeable disparity between the Cansips and Euro for example. But since seasonal modeling runs vary from 4×/day with the Cfs2 and monthly forecasts from others, it's a moving target depending on which forecast you're using. 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

How far did the 100 degree heat extend into Central Florida Chris? Was Orlando at or above 100 too? They have a 1 in 10 year rate of 100 degree high temperatures, about equal to JFK.

Here were some NWS high temperatures reported yesterday in Central Florida. Clermont is a co-op with a 7 am observation time, so that 101F was from Saturday. It actually recorded a high of 103F yesterday [but which goes in the books for today]. Looks to be the highest official reading reported on xMacis. I did notice a few smaller airports around 102-104F in northern parts of the state.

As you can see, the light northeasterly flow brought the coolest weather to the immediate east coast with mostly low 90s, but from Orlando west, upper 90s and some isolated 100F readings were common all the way to the Gulf coast.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

How far did the 100 degree heat extend into Central Florida Chris? Was Orlando at or above 100 too? They have a 1 in 10 year rate of 100 degree high temperatures, about equal to JFK.

 At 10AM today, Tampa is 2 F cooler than 24 hours ago and the wind is light from the S instead of from the seabreeze pinning rare N. Both of those along with climo point to very little chance of another 100 F high there today.

@bluewave

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I’m not Chris, but I already know the answer because I followed it closely. Tampa tied Jacksonville, Gainesville, and Leesburg for the hottest of major FL reporting stations yesterday with 100. This tied a daily record at JAX and was easily a new daily record at Leesburg. Lessburg’s tied with 1990 for a monthly record, but July records go back only to 1959.

 Orlando was “only” 97.

 Edit: it’s interesting that Tampa was tied for the hottest in FL yesterday despite being one of only very few stations in FL having not hit 100 before yesterday. It took just the right (or wrong) wind (a very rare for July light NE wind to keep the seabreeze away) along with few or no clouds to make it happen as the tweet Chris quoted mentioned. Even a strong NE wind likely wouldn’t have allowed it because that would bring in too much cooling over from the Atlantic side.

It reminds me of what happened at JFK in June with the back to back 102 degree highs.

 

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Here were some NWS high temperatures reported yesterday in Central Florida. Clermont is a co-op with a 7 am observation time, so that 101F was from Saturday. It actually recorded a high of 103F yesterday [but which goes in the books for today]. Looks to be the highest official reading reported on xMacis. I did notice a few smaller airports around 102-104F in northern parts of the state.

As you can see, the light northeasterly flow brought the coolest weather to the immediate east coast with mostly low 90s, but from Orlando west, upper 90s and some isolated 100F readings were common all the way to the Gulf coast.

Thanks, I see that the 100 and 101 readings weren't all that far from Orlando.  I also just heard that Jacksonville hit 100 too.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I’m not Chris, but I already know the answer because I followed it closely. Tampa tied Jacksonville, Gainesville, and Leesburg for the hottest of major FL reporting stations yesterday with 100. This tied a daily record at JAX and was easily a new daily record at Leesburg. Lessburg’s tied with 1990 for a monthly record, but July records go back only to 1959.

 Orlando was “only” 97.

 Edit: it’s interesting that Tampa was tied for the hottest in FL yesterday despite being one of only very few stations in FL having not hit 100 before yesterday. It took just the right (or wrong) wind (a very rare for July light NE wind to keep the seabreeze away) along with few or no clouds to make it happen as the tweet Chris quoted mentioned. Even a strong NE wind likely wouldn’t have allowed it because that would bring in too much cooling over from the Atlantic side.

this wind scenario reminds me of JFK and the south shore, wherein a light northerly wind increases the temperature (an offshore wind) but if it's too strong it brings in the cooler air off the Sound.

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The long range guidance, both summer and winter has consistently been too cold in the east since 2016 and has been grossly underestimating the SE ridge/WAR

Last winter the underestimation of the Southeast Ridge or Western Atlantic ridge occurred with the storm track. So the heaviest snows kept shifting north right up until storm time with a stronger ridge  than forecast. But in previous winters it has been both storm track and the overall average 500 mb pattern that the models regularly underestimate.