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2025-2026 ENSO


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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We saw this last year near the peak of tropical season too, it makes me think we are evolving towards a -AMO

 

The mid-latitude marine heatwaves being driven by the 500 mb ridge expansion have been preventing a shift to -AMO. 

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12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It seems to be delayed, but it has to happen eventually? Maybe a modified version of one?

The model forecasts have the -AMO getting overwhelmed by the fast Atlantic warming.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01804-x

Observed North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are modulated by a recurrent alternation of anomalously warm and cold interdecadal phases known as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Here we use observations and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations to demonstrate an ongoing acceleration of North Atlantic surface warming, which implies a smaller contribution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability to 21st century North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies than previously thought. Future projections of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability from realistic climate simulations are poorly constrained, yet a relaxation to a neutral phase by the mid-21st century emerges as the most probable evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. In the simulations, the mitigating effects of a less likely upcoming cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability are overwhelmed by fast North Atlantic surface warming, which is robustly projected to persist in upcoming decades independent of emission scenarios. Sustained North Atlantic surface warming is therefore expected to continue in the near future.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The mid-latitude marine heatwaves being driven by the 500 mb ridge expansion have been preventing a shift to -AMO. 

I know most speak of "tipping" points with respect to when the current climo succumbs to CC, but I also wonder if there is a "tipping point" for when the earth's natural balancing mechanisms/cycles trigger a push back against said influences of CC....ie, maybe ultimately a flip to -AMO and +PDO is realized.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not surprising given history...

image.thumb.png.47fd4ce6e6207ac4d978eae35d993145.png

wow Ray, so this a 40-45 year cycle? at this rate the next one will be around 2037-2042 lol.

note that the current peak is lower than the previous peak, maybe thats why we have not seen as many east coast hurricanes (and long duration heatwaves) as we did back in the 30s, 40s and 50s?  The last flip happened around 1967, and our last really hot summer in that period was 1966.

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow Ray, so this a 40-45 year cycle? at this rate the next one will be around 2037-2042 lol.

My stance on the AMO is similar to that of the PDO....If we get well into next decade with no change, then we'll truly know. I know many folks may think that they know now, but they don't.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know most speak of "tipping" points with respect to when the current climo succumbs to CC, but I also wonder if there is a "tipping point" for when the earth's natural balancing mechanisms/cycle triffer a push back against said influences of CC....ie, maybe we will eventially to flip to -AMO and +PDO.

I think that it would probably take at least VEI-7 volcanic eruption like Tambora for a short term interruption before the warming resumed again. But those type of eruptions have been very rare. Plus we don’t really have that much skill with long range volcanic forecasting. Maybe some of the board volcano experts can chime in here.

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/volcanic-cooling

 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My stance on the AMO is similar to that of the PDO....If we get well into next decade with no change, then we'll truly no. I know many folks may think that they know now, but they don't.

Look at how the peak of the last +AMO was higher too, maybe thats why we saw many more east coast hurricanes from the 30s through the 50s and also many more long duration heatwaves in that same period (up to 1966) than we have seen with the current +AMO

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think that it would probably take at least VEI-7 volcanic eruption like Tambora for a short term interruption before the warming resumed again. But those type of eruptions have been very rare. Plus we don’t really have that much skill with long range volcanic forecasting. Maybe some of the board volcano experts can chime in here.

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/volcanic-cooling

 

Yea, all we can do is speculate for now...but I won't be suprised if it doesn't even take that.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I think that it would probably take at least VEI-7 volcanic eruption like Tambora for a short term interruption before the warming resumed again. But those type of eruptions have been very rare. Plus we don’t really have that much skill with long range volcanic forecasting. Maybe some of the board volcano experts can chime in here.

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/volcanic-cooling

 

we're going to start geoengineering with aerosols beginning in 2030, we won't be waiting for a volcanic eruption.

 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Look at how the peak of the last +AMO was higher too, maybe thats why we saw many more east coast hurricanes from the 30s through the 50s and also many more long duration heatwaves in that same period (up to 1966) than we have seen with the current +AMO

The truth is in the middle....some degree of this is natural variation and cycling, but its undoubtedly amplified and potentially altered by CC.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The truth is in the middle....some degree of this is natural variation and cycling, but its undoubtedly amplified and potentially altered by CC.

I know some have talked about the expansion of the Hadley Cell which may be driving the warming east of Japan, which would almost certainly be CC driven. My hope is just that whatever is driving that reverses or gets muted by something else so that there can be real snowstorms here again. And I’m not even being facetious, other than 2020-21 and briefly in Jan 2022 which may be an incredible rarity in this new regime, you can watch clearly how the hyper Pacific Jet shoots to pieces any kind of setup that be good for NYC. It positively tilts the troughs so they can’t amplify in time which allows the suppressed outcomes, destroys phasing setups in a place where it would create a benchmark track, or its SWFE/cutter city when the SE ridge takes over. Or when there’s -NAO blocking the -PNA is so ridiculous that the block actually helps the cutter outcomes by linking with the SE ridge. Part of me thinks this is payback for the bonanza 2000-18 period where we had epic storms and averages have to assert themselves again, but more and more the longer this horrible regime lasts you have to ask whether it’s permanent and we’re starting to go down the road places like Central PA have for 20 years, where it’s essentially impossible to get big snow events there anymore. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I know some have talked about the expansion of the Hadley Cell which may be driving the warming east of Japan, which would almost certainly be CC driven. My hope is just that whatever is driving that reverses or gets muted by something else so that there can be real snowstorms here again. And I’m not even being facetious, other than 2020-21 and briefly in Jan 2022 which may be an incredible rarity in this new regime, you can watch clearly how the hyper Pacific Jet shoots to pieces any kind of setup that be good for NYC. It positively tilts the troughs so they can’t amplify in time which allows the suppressed outcomes, destroys phasing setups in a place where it would create a benchmark track, or its SWFE/cutter city when the SE ridge takes over. Or when there’s -NAO blocking the -PNA is so ridiculous that the block actually helps the cutter outcomes by linking with the SE ridge. Part of me thinks this is payback for the bonanza 2000-18 period where we had epic storms and averages have to assert themselves again, but more and more the longer this horrible regime lasts you have to ask whether it’s permanent and we’re starting to go down the road places like Central PA have for 20 years, where it’s essentially impossible to get big snow events there anymore. 

My question is why is this happening in the Pacific but not in the Atlantic? Or maybe it's beginning to now?

 

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

We have been seeing this pattern quite a bit during recent summers. It has been leading to a slow start to the hurricane seasons. As the SST differential between the subtropics and tropics relaxes later on, the dry air issues clear up and we see a quick acceleration of development. Unfortunately, it has lead to many late season rapidly intensifying hurricanes along the Gulf Coast. 

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We have been seeing this pattern quite a bit during recent summers. It has been leading to a slow start to the hurricane seasons. As the SST differential between the subtropics and tropics relaxes later on, the dry air issues clear up and we see a quick acceleration of development. Unfortunately, it has lead to many late season rapidly intensifying hurricanes along the Gulf Coast. 

Bottom line, something very drastic changed in the global SSTA patterns, atmospheric long wave circulations/Hadley cells, QBO evolutions and arctic sea ice after the 15-16 super El Niño. Is solar/geomag playing some sort of role too? Maybe
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57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have been seeing this pattern quite a bit during recent summers. It has been leading to a slow start to the hurricane seasons. As the SST differential between the subtropics and tropics relaxes later on, the dry air issues clear up and we see a quick acceleration of development. Unfortunately, it has lead to many late season rapidly intensifying hurricanes along the Gulf Coast. 

Exactly right.

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20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


Bottom line, something very drastic changed in the global SSTA patterns, atmospheric long wave circulations/Hadley cells, QBO evolutions and arctic sea ice after the 15-16 super El Niño. Is solar/geomag playing some sort of role too? Maybe

Yeah, the record breaking December 2015 +13° around our area seemed to be the very beginning of this shift. We still continued the epic snowfall and benchmark tracks that started in 09-10 until 17-18. Then the rapid jump in the mid-latitude ridging and SSTs began around 18-19. It shifted the winter storm track through the Great Lakes and gave us the record low snowfall for a 7 year period.

IMG_4183.thumb.jpeg.859a7fa9a93d559e54ff5b60016978e8.jpeg

 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the record breaking December 2015 +13° around our area seemed to be the very beginning of this shift. We still continued the epic snowfall and benchmark tracks that started in 09-10 until 17-18. Then the rapid jump in the mid-latitude ridging and SSTs began around 18-19. It shifted the winter storm track through the Great Lakes and gave us the record low snowfall for a 7 year period.

IMG_4183.thumb.jpeg.859a7fa9a93d559e54ff5b60016978e8.jpeg

 

If I get lucky and get a 50" winter this season, I would be at exactly normal snow for the decade.  Right now I'm averaging 4" below normal from Dec 2020-now

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53 minutes ago, FPizz said:

If I get lucky and get a 50" winter this season, I would be at exactly normal snow for the decade.  Right now I'm averaging 4" below normal from Dec 2020-now

Heh....closest I have been to normal since 2017-2018 is about 10" shy in 2020-2021. I haven't been sniffing normal. Its always either north of south of me.

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1 hour ago, FPizz said:

If I get lucky and get a 50" winter this season, I would be at exactly normal snow for the decade.  Right now I'm averaging 4" below normal from Dec 2020-now

Unfortunately, we don’t have a long term continuous snowfall measurement record for a given spot in Somerset County. There are different COOP sites with varying length observation records.

The longest continuous site is New Brunswick to your east. The current 7 year running mean snowfall is 15.9” ending in 2025. That is the 3rd lowest on record behind the 13.1” ending in 1933 and the 13.8” ending 7 year period in 1956. 

New Brunswick is doing better than Philly relative to the 7 year means. The Philly 7 year running average snowfall is 10.5” ending in 2025 is the lowest on record.This is below the previous record lowest 7 year snowfall average of 12.5” ending in 1933.

The highest New Brunswick 7 year running mean snowfall was 39.6” ending in 1911. The 2nd highest was 38.2” ending in 2016. 

The highest Philly running 7 year snowfall average was 36.8” ending in 2016.
 

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the record breaking December 2015 +13° around our area seemed to be the very beginning of this shift. We still continued the epic snowfall and benchmark tracks that started in 09-10 until 17-18. Then the rapid jump in the mid-latitude ridging and SSTs began around 18-19. It shifted the winter storm track through the Great Lakes and gave us the record low snowfall for a 7 year period.

IMG_4183.thumb.jpeg.859a7fa9a93d559e54ff5b60016978e8.jpeg

 

what caused that extreme el nino?

 

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28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Unfortunately, we don’t have a long term continuous snowfall measurement record for a given spot in Somerset County. There are different COOP sites with varying length observation records.

The longest continuous site is New Brunswick to your east. The current 7 year running mean snowfall is 15.9” ending in 2025. That is the 3rd lowest on record behind the 13.1” ending in 1933 and the 13.8” ending 7 year period in 1956. 

New Brunswick is doing better than Philly relative to the 7 year means. The Philly 7 year running average snowfall is 10.5” ending in 2025 is the lowest on record.This is below the previous record lowest 7 year snowfall average of 12.5” ending in 1933.

The highest New Brunswick 7 year running mean snowfall was 39.6” ending in 1911. The 2nd highest was 38.2” ending in 2016. 

The highest Philly running 7 year snowfall average was 36.8” ending in 2016.
 

 

what are the highest 7 year means for NYC and for JFK, Chris?

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what are the highest 7 year means for NYC and for JFK, Chris?

The current 7 year stretch through 2025 is lowest on record at both JFK and NYC. JFK  is currently at 14.5” which is lower than the previous record of 15.6” ending in 1976 and 15.8” in 1992. NYC is at 14.9” which comes in below the previous 7 year lows in 15.4 from 1933 and 16.3” in 1992.

The highest 7 year max for JFK was 34.5” in 2016 with NYC setting their record high at 41.0”.

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Shows how sharp cutoffs can be in this area.  I live pretty much dead even between NYC and Philly, and that same 7 year average here is 22.375" or pretty much 8" more than NYC and JFK.  My worst stretch here was 96/97 through 01/02 (6 years), the average was only 17.3".  8 out of the 10 years in the 90s were complete trash as well.  Those 8 years averaged only 17", but 93/94 and 95/96 bumped the decade average up to 27" since those 2 were amazing winters.  08/09-14/15 averaged 41.6", which is my best stretch here.  Way too many sweeping generalizations get posted in here.  

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we probably are already doing so but i wish we could do equal amount of research on all of the different types of weather phenomenon out there including those teleconnection things maybe theres some sort of new one or something like that i mean noaa is doing a great job with the new research that they are doing now i just wish there could be even more research or a balanced amount just so that we can get rid of these unknowns and etc im sure its possible we do in fact someday figure out how our planet earth works even further sort of thing or something

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