2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The average winter temp in International Falls last winter was 9.1°. You dont tell someone who lives there and says "it was pretty cold this winter!", "well you probably felt cold after last winter but the CONUS temp was 34.07°

While you and I would consider any winter averaging 9.1° in NYC or DTW pretty darn cold, it was still a +0.4 winter for INL against the warmest 91-20 climate normals and a +1.9 against the long term average with several missing years in the old days. But that long term +1.9° is exactly the same as the U.S. long term this past winter of +1.9°. So the local INL conditions were proportional to the wider national average.

[michsnowfreak]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While you and I would consider any winter averaging 9.1° in NYC or DTW pretty darn cold, it was still a +0.4 winter for INL against the warmest 91-20 climate normals and a +1.9 against the long term average with several missing years in the old days. But that long term +1.9° is exactly the same as the U.S. long term this past winter of +1.9°. So the local INL conditions were proportional to the wider national average.

I was using it as an example. I didnt even look up the departure. Detroits winter was 27.5° which was -0.9° 1991-2020 departures. But again. This turned into more than my intended point. My entire point is that everyone in the U.S. did not "feel" a 34.07° winter avg temp. Some places were warmer and some colder relative to their own averages. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Definitely don’t mention the 07-08 winter in the NYC forum, you’ll get rocks thrown at you lol But in all seriousness, that winter was a complete and utter disaster for snow south of New England. One of the all time worst for the NYC metro area in the last 30 years in fact…..it ranks right up there with 97-98, 01-02, 11-12 and 19-20

Posters in the southern Great Lakes will be throwing confetti, not rocks, at the mention of 2007-08. Banner snow season.

Madison, WI- 101.4"
Milwaukee, WI- 99.1"
Ann Arbor, MI- 90.5"
Flint, MI- 82.8"
Saginaw, MI- 80.0"
Cleveland, OH- 77.2"
Detroit, MI- 71.7"
Chicago, IL- 60.3"
Toledo, OH- 58.1"

[snowman19]

Posters in the southern Great Lakes will be throwing confetti, not rocks, at the mention of 2007-08. Banner snow season.
Madison, WI- 101.4"
Milwaukee, WI- 99.1"
Ann Arbor, MI- 90.5"
Flint, MI- 82.8"
Saginaw, MI- 80.0"
Cleveland, OH- 77.2"
Detroit, MI- 71.7"
Chicago, IL- 60.3"
Toledo, OH- 58.1"

When Wisconsin, Ohio, Illinois and Michigan are seeing a lot of snow, it’s usually really bad news for the NYC metro area

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

My first forecast discussion for the winter of 2024-2025 occurred after I saw the high amplitude MJO 5 back in October. It’s in the ENSO 2024-2025 thread on 10-26-24 and page #145. We were discussing my post. 

The mismatch years I was discussing last October were 20-21, 17-18, and 10-11, due to the high amplitude La Niña October MJO 5 those years. But for snowfall I mentioned that there were other different factors going in which weren’t present those years.

After I saw the lower December snowfall indicator around NYC, I went below average for seasonal snowfall last December. This turned out to be correct. 

The mismatch in my early discussion season turned out to be accurate as it was one of the strongest +PNA La Niña winters ever observed.

But I never came out with a temperature forecast prior to the winter. If you want to take my previous mismatch years of 20-21, 17-18 and 10-11,will compare how those worked out compared 24-25.

La Niña mismatch winters since 15-16 and winter average temperature 

2024-2025….34.07°……#27 warmest 

2020-2021…..33.64°…..#34 warmest

2017-2018……33.99°…..#29 warmest 

2010-2011…….31.74°……#49 warmest 

So 2024-2025 turned out to be warmer and not cooler like you mentioned. I didn’t specifically put out a temperature forecast. But if I did, my winter forecast for the CONUS would have been a little too cold , but not that far off from the mismatch reality.

Below is the NOAA recap of winter and the ranking map.

https://www.noaa.gov/news/despite-arctic-air-outbreaks-us-had-warm-dry-winter-on-average#:~:text=Meteorological winter (December 2024 – February,second-warmest February on record.

Despite Arctic air outbreaks, U.S. had warm, dry winter on average

 

 

 

I said it was cooler in much of the east than 2021-2022, which is was.

Really, now you want to compare 2010-2011?? I thought it was unwise to compare a pre 2015 season to this "new, warmer climate"?? I guess we can when convenient.

I think you need to start issuing forecasts if you want want to try to claim some sort of victory. I think we can find a redeeming aspect of everyone's narrative, but the trick is to put out numbers and have it verify close to reality.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

I didn’t specifically put out a temperature forecast. But if I did, my winter forecast for the CONUS would have been a little too cold

Okay...lets poll this....how many in this thread think Chris would have been too cold if he had issued a forecast last season? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I called for the mismatch period and explained in petty vivid detail why I didn't think it would be as good of a winter as 2010-2011 or 2017-2018 ....I was ultimately too warm, but not by much. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said it was cooler in much of the east than 2021-2022, which is was.

Really, now you want to compare 2010-2011?? I thought it was unwise to compare a pre 2015 season to this "new, warmer climate"?? I guess we can when convenient.

I think you need to start issuing forecasts if you want want to try to claim some sort of victory. I think we can find a redeeming aspoect of everyone's narrative, but the trick is to put out numbers and have reality verify closely.

You continuously come on here with these snarky gotcha-style posts which misquote me.  I was discussing with you how the mismatch analogs were colder and not warmer than what the Euro seasonal was forecasting for last winter. And that the mismatch years had significant differences from 20-21, 17-18, and 10-11. The common thread was the PNA mismatch and not a specific snowfall or temperature outcome. 
 

But I will chalk it up to misdirected anger on your part at how bad the winters have been in Boston since the 2018-2019. It’s still a very bad look on your part and a few other posters. We have seen numerous examples in recent years how these current patterns have become warmer and less snowy than when a similar process like a mismatch occurred in the old days.

I use a data driven approach to seasonal forecasting and release more specific outcomes when the data presents itself. My first call from last October was that it would be more of a +PNA mismatch than the models were calling for. This turned out to be correct. But I had to wait  until the winter got underway to see the exact magnitude which was record breaking. Extremes like that are very tough to get ahead of time. So I was just happy to get the directional trend correct and let the finer details work themselves out. 

Next I posted my snowfall outlook in December when that early indicator pointed toward another below average season. So I was correct to say back in October that there were other factors working against snowfall and temperature outcomes of the previous mismatch years. But the magnitude of how much warmer and especially less snowy than previous mismatch winters would become took time to unfold.
 

In the old days, a La Niña mismatch winter like 2024-2025 would have become a slam dunk cold and snowy winter. But the climate has warmed so much since the 15-16 and 22-23 baseline jumps, that these old patterns repeat as a significantly weaker reflection. This is why I added the mention back last October how there were other big differences. Mainly the rapid expansion of marine heatwaves and subtropical ridges muting favorable responses.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You continuously come on here with these snarky gotcha-style posts which misquote me.  I was discussing with you how the mismatch analogs were colder and not warmer than what the Euro seasonal was forecasting for last winter. And that the mismatch years had significant differences from 20-21, 17-18, and 10-11. The common thread was the PNA mismatch and not a specific snowfall or temperature outcome. 
 

But I will chalk it up to misdirected anger on your part at how bad the winters have been in Boston since the 2018-2019. It’s still a very bad look on your part and a few other posters. We have seen numerous examples in recent years how these current patterns have become warmer and less snowy than when a similar process like a mismatch occurred in this much warmer climate.

I use a data driven approach to seasonal forecasting and release more specific outcomes when the data presents itself. My first call from last October was that it would be more of a +PNA mismatch than the models were calling for. This turned out to be correct. But I had to wait  until the winter got underway to see the exact magnitude which was record breaking. Extremes like that are very tough to get ahead of time. So I was just happy to get the directional trend correct and let the finer details work themselves out. 

Next I posted my snowfall outlook in December when that early indicator pointed toward another below average season. So I was correct to say back in October that there were other factors working against snowfall and temperature outcomes of the previous mismatch years. But the magnitude of how much warmer and especially less snowy than previous mismatch winters would become took time to unfold.
 

In the old days, a La Niña mismatch winter like 2024-2025 would have become a slam dunk cold and snowy winter. But the climate has warmed so much since the 15-16 and 22-23 baseline jumps, that these old patterns repeat as a significantly weaker reflection. 
 

I'm going to let you in on a little secret because sometimes even very intelligent folks like you struggle to see the obvious...you want to know a really good way to avoid being misquoted with respect to your expectations for a given season?? I know this may sound nuts, so bare with me here....issue a forecast that explicitly states your expectations along with a detailed rationale. I tried this about 11 years ago and have never looked back. Your failure to do so is what I chalk up to any confusion about what you "forecasted" in a random post on page 232 of the ENSO thread last October. Frankly, I couldn't give rat's scrotum how bad you think I look, Chris....I say that with all of the love and respect in the world, believe me.  I have a wife, house, two jobs and four kids under the age of 6, but I'll try to do a better job of deducing what your theoretical winter forecast would look like based on your comments pertaining to a random seasonal model from a random post in an long scrolled thread 9 months ago.

You don't want to put out a specific forecast, cool....but do me favor and get a really large mirror when it comes time to assess culpability for any confusion related to your stance after the fact. The onus if responsibility is with the forecaster, not the audience, dude.

PS: "In the old days".....AKA "when we had a -WPO". Flip the WPO and its a slightly warmer version of the old days-

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm going to let you in on a little secret because sometimes even very intelligent folks like you struggle to see the obvious...you want to know a really good way to avoid being misquoted with respect to your expectations for a given season?? I know this may sound nuts, so bear with me here....issue a forecast that explicitly states your expectations along with a detailed rationale. I tried this about 11 years ago and have never looked back. Your failure to do so is what I chalk up to any confusion about what you "forecasted" in a random post on page 232 of the ENSO thread last October. Frankly, I couldn't give rat's scrotum how bad you think I look, Chris....I say that with all of the love and respect in the world, believe me.  I have a wife, house, two jobs and four kids under the age of 6, but I'll try to do a better job of deducing what your theoretical winter forecast would look like based on your comments pertaining to a random seasonal model from a random post in an aged thread 9 months ago.

You don’t get to dictate to me or anyone else what the precise format is for issuing long range weather forecasts. You realize in the industry that beating the 6-10, 11-15, and week 3 forecasts is a big accomplishment. Just getting the directional theme of the winter vs what the models are showing is a big win. So I am very happy how last winter worked out from my forecast perspective. Your amateurish posting style detracts from understanding what you are trying to convey beyond the insult comic schtick.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

You don’t get to dictate to me or anyone else what the precise format is for issuing long range weather forecasts. You realize in the industry that beating the 6-10, 11-15, and week 3 forecasts is a big accomplishment. Just getting the directional theme of the winter vs what the models are showing is a big win. So I am very happy how last winter worked out from my forecast perspective. 

Nope....we agree there...and I will tell you, the neat thing about never issuing a forecast is you get to dictate how right it was.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Precise format?? Dude, start a freaking thead and write your throughts with some numnbers in one sentence.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nope....we agree there...and I will tell you, the neat thing about never issuing a forecast is you get to dictate how right it was.

My forecasts are released in an ongoing style. So just because it doesn’t meet your approved format means little to me. Maybe your actual forecasts would improve if you took more time to understand the actual climate than hurl insults. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

My forecasts are released in an ongoing style. So just because it doesn’t meet your approved format means little to me. Maybe your actual forecasts would improve if you took more time to understand the actual climate than hurl insults. 

Cool. Quote the one with seasonal numbers.

Thanks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Chris, I have achieved a better understanding of the climate than I did 11 years ago and than I did even last year, which is all that matters to me. I have issued some bad forecasts, last year not being one, and the bad ones have been my most invaluable learning tools. I regret 0.0.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nope....we agree there...and I will tell you, the neat thing about never issuing a forecast is you get to dictate how right it was.

I issue multiple ongoing forecasts so again you are just making stuff up. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cool. Quote the one with seasonal numbers.

Thanks.

 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I issue multiple ongoing forecasts so again you are just making stuff up. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

I didn’t specifically put out a temperature forecast.

 

[WestMichigan]

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Posters in the southern Great Lakes will be throwing confetti, not rocks, at the mention of 2007-08. Banner snow season.

Madison, WI- 101.4"
Milwaukee, WI- 99.1"
Ann Arbor, MI- 90.5"
Flint, MI- 82.8"
Saginaw, MI- 80.0"
Cleveland, OH- 77.2"
Detroit, MI- 71.7"
Chicago, IL- 60.3"
Toledo, OH- 58.1"

Crazy year.  Madison, Milwaukee, and Ann Arbor had more snow than GRR and Flint came close.  '07-'08 was a decent year but not even in the top 20 locally.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Precise format?? Dude, start a freaking thead and write your throughts with some numnbers in one sentence.

We already have plenty of threads in these forums. So I don’t feel the need to start a thread for every new thought or forecast. Your ideas of what is an acceptable posting and forecasting style seem pretty rigid to me. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't agree with all of Chris' takes obviously, but I really don't see what is wrong with putting your seasonal thoughts out there to clear up any confusion. Shame he doesn't because he's probably up there with raindance as one of the best forecasters....definitely better than I am IMO. I just wish there was more clarity, that's all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

We already have plenty of threads in these forums. So I don’t feel the need to start a thread for every new thought or forecast. So your ideas of what is an acceptable posting and forecasting style seem pretty rigid to me. 

Just one per year...that's it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Crazy year.  Madison, Milwaukee, and Ann Arbor had more snow than GRR and Flint came close.  '07-'08 was a decent year but not even in the top 20 locally.

I would pay for a repeat of that year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We already have plenty of threads in these forums. So I don’t feel the need to start a thread for every new thought or forecast. Your ideas of what is an acceptable posting and forecasting style seem pretty rigid to me. 

If preferring a single thread to organize and centralize seasonal thoughts is "ridgid", than sure...I guess. I think everyone who does seasonals does it...clears up confusion and no one is "misquoted".

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't agree with all of Chris' takes obviously, but I really don't see what is wrong with putting your seasonal thoughts out there to clear up any confusion. Shame he doesn't because he's probably up there with raindance as one of the best forecasters....definitely better than I am IMO. I just wish there was more clarity, that's all.

Again, I do put out all my seasonal forecasts and ideas. But I like to weave them into the ongoing threads and discussions to keep them topical. This forum would become very hard to read if everyone was starting threads for their own individual ideas.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Again, I do put out all my seasonal forecasts and ideas. But I like to weave them into the ongoing threads and discussions to keep them topical. This forum would become very hard to read if everyone was starting threads for their own individual idea

Yea, this is where we disagree....I think one thread annualy from those that offer seasonal insights reduces confusion, so we agree to disagree there. To each their own...just understand that it makes "misquoting" more likely.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The ENSO threads grow to be like 500 pages, so its really cumbersome and confusing to rely on those to disseminate seasonal thoughts. I obviously I share tidbots here, but also organize them in a thread.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, this is where we disagree....I think one thread annualy from those that offer seasonal insights reduces confusion, so we agree to disagree there. To each their own...just understand that it makes "misquoting" more likely.

Try asking me a question first rather than telling me what you think my forecast was. It will make things run much more smoothly. I actually like it when people ask me questions.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Try asking me a question first rather than telling me what you think my forecast was. It will make things run much more smoothly. I actually like it when people ask me questions.

I did, and you said you didn't put temp numbers out. Sounds like from what you have said that you would have forecasted that you nailed it, which is great....I but I find value in having a record to remove any trace of subjectivity or confsuion. Perhaps I am just rigid and others disagree.

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay...lets poll this....how many in this thread think Chris would have been too cold if he had issued a foreast last season? 

None.  If there is a record high temp in bumble Montana, we will 100% see a post in the NY forum about it.  A few record lows last night across NE, silence.  Zero chance this guy would have been too cold.